Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Three restricted free agents remain the last major moves in this year's NBA free agency period.
- Each player faces a unique contract situation shaped by team needs and limited cap space across the league.
- The next decisions will test how teams balance short-term wins with long-term roster building.
Last week, the biggest domino left in free agency, the one and only LeBron James, finally fell, as the future Hall of Famer decided to take his talents to Southeastern Pennsylvania to join the Philadelphia 76ers.
Now, the most significant pieces left on the board are a trio of restricted free agents: Peyton Watson, Jalen Duren and Bennedict Mathurin. Where will these three young and (hopefully) up-and-coming players land? We try to use the information available to us to give our best guess.
F Peyton Watson
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Of these three players, Watson is the one who intrigues me the most. He's always been a dynamite defender. Despite not being a center, Watson has consistently graded out as a supreme shot blocker, ranking in the 86th percentile or higher in block rate in each season of his career.
Then, last season, he took a significant offensive leap, averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, true shooting and 3-point percentage (his rookie season 3-point rate was higher, but he also barely shot any 3s back then). Watson projects to be a two-way force with some on-ball upside as he gets set to enter his age-24 season.
The word is that the Denver Nuggets are going to be patient and see if anyone is willing to offer Watson anything that they may have to match before they give him their official offer. I'm sure Watson's camp isn't too appreciative of this approach, but it is wise of them not to unnecessarily drive up the price for his services.
The Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers and Atlanta Hawks have all expressed some interest in the soon-to-be fifth-year forward. However, none of them have much by way of cap space, meaning they would need to execute a tricky sign-and-trade to even make this happen. My guess is that Watson is playing for the Nuggets next season.
C Jalen Duren
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
Duren's dispute with the Detroit Pistons may be the most fascinating one in the history of restricted free agency. During the regular season, Duren looked and played like one of the best bigs in the league, earning an All-NBA selection when it was all said and done. This also made him eligible for a rookie max extension.
Unfortunately, the postseason was a different story. It isn't out of the ordinary for young players to struggle in the playoffs, but this was something different: From my eye, these weaknesses were not just a product of inexperience, but rather systematic shortcomings that will persist throughout Duren's career unless he takes another leap.
The Pistons seem to agree, which is why we are in this current predicament. Duren feels like he's a blossoming star. Detroit doesn't really see it that way. No one else is around throwing money at Duren to force the Pistons to put up or shut up. And now, nothing is getting done.
Given how limited other teams are at this stage, and how desperately this Pistons team needs a starting center, I think Duren is going to stick around in Detroit until at least the start of next season.
F Bennedict Mathurin
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers
Bennedict Mathurin has scored 24 or more points in two different NBA Finals games. On the flip side, in that same series, Mathurin also had four games with eight points or less.
Those 2025 NBA Finals serve as a useful microcosm of the Mathurin experience. Sometimes he looks like a full-blown superstar. Other times he feels unplayable. He's the ultimate wildcard.
It's because of this that the Clippers would prefer to sign Watson over Mathurin. However, we don't always get everything we want, and the most likely solution here is Mathurin returning to Los Angeles on a new deal.
I know that all these predictions are a bit boring, but that is how restricted free agency works when no one has any cap space. Players usually end up signing with the team that they played for in the prior season. Just look at what happened with the four big names from restricted free agency this time last year.
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