Why Jalen Williams could be the key to everything for the OKC Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder looked destined to go on a Golden State Warriors like run after winning the 2025 NBA Championship. However, stampeding their way through the 2025-26 regular season — winning 64 games — they failed to even make it back to the NBA Finals. 

The San Antonio Spurs — the team that beat them in the Western Conference Finals — will be in a vengeful mood after falling to the New York Knicks in the final round. The Knicks will also be looking to take a stab at a two-peat. Outside of them, teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, and Cleveland Cavaliers will (probably) be better than they were last year and hoping to throw their hat in the title race. 

Getting back (and winning in) the NBA Finals, is going to be a tall task for the Thunder. And to do it, they are going to need their ace in the hole to come through for them.

Jalen Williams is the X-Factor for the Thunder in 2026-27

It feels like a lifetime ago at this point, but when the Thunder won it all, Jalen Williams was their second-most important player (behind, of course, back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). In the 2025 Playoffs, Williams averaged 21.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.4 steals. He finished the postseason ranked 16th in Estimated Plus-Minus (per Dunks & Threes). His marquee performance was a 40-burger in Game 5 of the Finals to give them a decisive 3-2 lead over the Indiana Pacers. 

Entering his age-24 campaign, many people expected Williams to build upon his first All-NBA season. However, injuries put a massive wrench in those plans, as wrist and hamstring injuries limited him to 33 regular season and five playoff games. Even when he did play, Williams wasn’t quite himself. His scoring volume and efficiency took a dip (his 3-point shot, in particular, really waned), and his EPM went from being in the 97th percentile in 2024-25 to the 90th percentile last year. 

The Thunder were able to get by for most of the year without Williams because they had the deepest team in basketball. Guys like Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, and Luguentz Dort were able to step up and fill the void left by the Swiss Army Knife wing. But Williams’ absence finally caught up to the team in the Western Conference Finals, and even though the team was able to get to a Game 7, they still got sent home early.

The other problem is that two of the guys we mentioned (Joe and Dort), along with Andrew Wiggins are no longer there. None of these players are absolute necessities, but they were nice luxuries to have in the regular, especially when Williams was hurt. On top of that, the regular season projects to be way harder now, as the league’s anti-tanking reform policies seek to penalize teams that are intentionally trying to lose. So, everyone is going to be giving their best effort (in theory). 

Now, the Thunder need Williams not only so they can beat the big guys, but he’s got to stay relatively healthy in order for them to survive the 82-game grind with a high-seed in the standings. 

Before last year, Williams proved to be super durable. In his first three years, he played in 215 of the team’s 246 regular season games in that time (87.3 percent). What happened in 2025-26 should just be an anomaly. 

But when you have the expectations the Thunder possess, it isn’t enough that history tells us things should be okay. This is a results driven business. And to get where the Thunder need to go, Williams has got to be healthy and ready to excel. 

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