Every NBA preseason, we are all filled with unjustified optimism. It's a new season, a clean slate. Any player can achieve anything, and any team can go deep into the playoffs if they just work hard enough.
The reason I call this optimism "unjustified" is because, oftentimes, these hopes never truly materialize. Some of them do, but a majority of the time, things go as we expect.
So, to prepare us all for some disappointment, here are three "developments" that are probably not going to happen in the 2026-27 NBA season.
For more insights from Mat Issa into the latest NBA news and trends, sign up for our email newsletter The Whiteboard — sharp analysis, bold opinions, and everything shaping the league right now. This is built for hoop heads, League Pass lifers and people who lover to argue about basketball.
Zion Williamson and the development of a jump shot
There are probably like 100 players who are one jump shot away from completely leveling up their game. Zion Williamson, one of the best rim attackers of his generation, is one of those fellows.
To counter Williamson's paint pressure, opponents will often sag off him to bait him into taking long shots and prepare for his stampedes to the rim. It also makes him far less valuable off the ball, since he isn't much of a threat to catch-and-shoot.
So, it would make sense that Williamson, who is trying to revitalize the hype around him, would work hard to develop a jumper.
Zion Williamson working diligently on catching and shooting after practice today. It’s completely evident how extensively he’s been trying to hone his jumper since the start of training camp. pic.twitter.com/ecdGKLb8gn
— Oleh Kosel 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇦🇺 (@OlehKosel) October 12, 2026
Unfortunately, if it was easy to acquire a strong jump shot, a lot more players would do it. A lot of people think it is all about putting up a respectable field goal percentage. Yes, that's part of it. But the big factor to becoming a shooter that people actually want to worry about is your volume.
Why would a defense change the way they guard a player if they are just going to take two 3s a game? Even if they are shooting 50 percent, it doesn't make sense to concede the paint in order to keep someone from hitting one 3 a game.
For his career, Williamson has never ranked higher than the ninth percentile in 3-point volume. The odds of him ever bumping that up to respectable rate are slim, especially in one offseason.
This isn't just intended to be a dig on Williamson. You should keep this in mind when you see clips of any below average shooter hoisting 3s in an open gym.
The former lottery pick who finally figures it out
Every year, teams take a flyer on players who were once coveted draft prospects that eventually fizzled out of the league, in the hopes that they can help them redeem themselves. There are a handful of examples where this has worked (look at Andrew Wiggins with the Golden State Warriors). But most of the time, this dart throw misses the board.
The two offseason examples that I'm referring to here are the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mario Hezonja, and the Sacramento Kings with Ben Simmons. Hezonja has had some nice moments in the preseason, while Simmons looks like he is going to be an opening-day starter for the Kings.
Spears: Ben Simmons expected to be in Kings starting lineup to begin the regular season.
— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) October 12, 2026
Personally, I am higher on what Hezonja can do for the Cavaliers than what Simmons will do with the Kings, especially since the former is just asking him to come off the bench. However, I highly doubt that either of them will be guys you trust to give you minutes in a deep playoff series, not that the Kings will be anywhere near one of those this season.
The rookie who is ready right away
This is the one that usually gets me. A team drafts a young player with a theoretical skillset that could help them immediately, only for that player to not be ready to be a productive piece of a winning team.
As boring as it is to say, most rookies are not that good in their first season. Last season was kind of an aberration for rookies, but in 2024-25, only three rookies had a postive Estimated Plus-Minus while appearing in over 40 games (per Dunks & Threes). Only one of those guys (Quinten Post) even played in the playoffs.
This preseason, I'm sure you are seeing a lot of rookie hype on your timeline. For instance, just the other day we were glazing Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz. However, given the Oklahoma City Thunder's lofty expectations, I doubt they will be counted on too heavily right out of the gate.
Both of these guys (and a lot of the other first year players entering the league) will eventually become good players, just not right away.
Add us as a preferred source on Google