Lately, I've been listening to a lot more pop music than I ever have before. I think it's because I just turned 36, which feels like an "old" age, and so listening to contemporary pop music feels like a way to reclaim some of my youth back. IDK. Time marches on with no end, though, and there's no way to really become young again. That's true in life, and it's especially true in sports. Every player has a moment where they're at their best, and once they're past that moment, they just aren't that player again. Regression, that's what we call it, and it comes for everyone, in the NFL and otherwise.
These five players are set to regress in 2026. That doesn't mean they'll be bad, but don't expect them to maintain last season's level of performance.
QB Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
It almost feels like it'd be impossible for Sam Darnold to not regress after leading the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl title last season. He completed a career-best 67.7 percent of his passes and threw for over 4,000 yards for the second season in a row.
He also threw 14 interceptions, the most he's had since his rookie season, and his touchdown rate dropped from 6.4 percent in 2024 to 5.2 percent in 2025. There were already signs that 2025 might not have actually been as good as 2024 Darnold. Could those signs become even more glaring this time around?
Seattle also didn't improve its receiving corps at all this offseason. Obviously, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the NFL's elites, but the situation after him is iffy. Rashid Shaheed hasn't proven he can be more than a situational deep threat. Cooper Kupp's not getting any younger. The tight end situation is mediocre. Unless Tory Horton breaks out, this receiving unit won't be as good as it was last season, and that will lower Darnold's floor and ceiling.
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
I've always been a bit suspicious of Kyren Williams, opting to believe that he was a product of how he was used more than his production was a product of Williams being more talented than other backs. He deserves credit for taking advantage of his opportunities, but Sean McVay has also put hiim in really good spots.
Last season, Williams finished with his fewest yards per game as a full-time starter as the team worked to get Blake Corum more involved in the backfield. I have no reason to expect that trend will stop. Corum offers some explosiveness that Williams lacks, even if Williams is demonstrably better down near the goal line.
In 2026, I'd expect fewer non-red zone touches for Williams, which will put his streak of 1,000-yard seasons in jeopardy. Double-digit touchdowns are still definitely in reach, but his overall numbers should take a dip.
WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts spent big to keep wide receiver Alec Pierce around after he led the NFL in yards per catch for the second season in a row and finished with over 1,000 yards for the first time. I don't know if they'll regret it, necessarily, but I do think the team needs to prepare for the possibility that Pierce's recent production might not be sustainable.
Yes, Pierce proved he's very good at finding space down the field to make big plays, but let's also remember this: his career high in receptions is only 47, and he ranked 45th among wide receivers in contested catch rate last season.
Can Pierce succeed in a larger role, with more targets in the short and intermediate game? Or is it going to quickly become the case that Josh Downs becomes the No. 1 option and Pierce is left in the same role he's had. And if that's the case, leading the league in yards per receptions for a third year in a row seems like it would be pretty difficult, right?
DE Danielle Hunter, Houston Texans
In 2025, Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter recorded 15 sacks, marking the fourth year in a row with double-digit sacks for the veteran edge rusher. It was the second-most of his career after his 16.5 in 2023.
Hunter hasn't shown signs of slowing down, but he turns 32 years old in October. The elite production won't last forever, and at some point you'd assume Houston will start to rotate him out even more often to keep him fresh. He's played 70 percent of the team's defensive snaps in both seasons with the team.
No one is saying Hunter will be bad in 2026. Heck, he'll likely still get double-digit sacks. But, I kind of expect a little bit of fall off, something closer to 10 sacks than 15 sacks with fewer snaps and just overall less impact than he's had over the past two seasons.
S Kevin Byard, New England Patriots
In 2025, for the second time in his NFL career, Kevin Byard led the NFL in interceptions, notching seven of them while playing for the Chicago Bears. Now Byard, who turns 33 in August, is off to New England, where he joins a Patriots team that made it to the Super Bowl last season.
So, why expect regression from Byard? Well...for every reason I just mentioned. He's getting older. He has nowhere to go but down after leading the NFL in picks. He's going to have to adjust to a new team, which won't be easy, and there's a player behind him on the depth chart who might surprisingly challenge him for snaps.
Also, interceptions are fluky! Byard had seven of them last season, but just two interceptions combined over the previous two seasons. Even if he wasn't on the wrong side of 30, expecting him to replicate last season's success would be a stretch. Add in concerns about his age, and it's just not going to happen.
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