Sometimes sports media can be mean-spirited, so I will preface this column by reminding everyone that I do not wish any true ill will towards the Atlanta Falcons or Miami Dolphins, their quarterbacks or their many wonderful fans. Now that we’re all morally buttoned up, which of these teams look like they will literally never win a game? Which of these absolute dumpster-fires-on-a-train-wreck could go 0-17?
First, an appetizer: quarterbacks. I think the quarterback is probably the only player in sports capable of singlehandedly losing a game for their team — short of a literally unstoppable running game, an NFL team cannot win if their quarterback is actively sabotaging their chances.
The Falcons quarterbacks have played worse than just spiking the ball every play
So we’re going to start with my favorite number in NFL analytics: 39.6, or the passer rating an NFL quarterback would have if they just spiked the ball on every single play. Because of how passer rating calculation works, an “incomplete pass” on every play would result in the quarterback achieving nothing positive but also never doing anything overwhelmingly negative. 39.6 is not the lowest possible passer rating, because you can obviously throw interceptions, but NFL teams are generally hoping their quarterbacks do better than the numerical equivalent of voluntarily losing the game.
Remember the 39.6 number. Through two weeks, the Miami Dolphins, who have only played Malik Willis this season, have a team passer rating of 83.5, sixth worst in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons, who have played Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, have a team passer rating of 38.2. Do not scratch your eyes, you are really seeing that the Falcons’ quarterbacks have played worse than if they had just spiked the ball on every play through two weeks. That’s the start of this conversion; that’s the energy we’re bringing to this article right now.
On the quarterback front, Miami has a huge advantage in not going 0-17. They got destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers, sure, but so did the reigning MVP Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. The Falcons, meanwhile, have seen some of the worst quarterback play imaginable this season — it is unclear if the great philosophers of yore could have conceived of anything worse. Rush and Strand are not NFL-caliber passers, and the Falcons ideal replacements are Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., both of whom have struggled mightily in their careers and neither of whom is healthy. I legitimately feel bad for Rush and Strand — is it beyond unfair to saddle them with this disaster. But there is no hope in sight.
Via the transitive property, the Falcons look positively incapable of beating anyone without better quarterback performance. They lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-13 in Week 1, who in Week 2 lost to the New England Patriots 20-3 and looked completely inept, broken and fried. The Falcons lost to that Steelers team; but it wasn’t just the quarterback that cooked them.
The Dolphins do not spend enough to compete with other teams
Now, the main course: whose team is actually better? There is, obviously, more to going 0-17 than quarterback play, and the Falcons have a serious advantage in all the other aspects of winning football games given the Dolphins don’t really have what we in the biz call an NFL-level roster. They are spending $116 million on their current roster, an order of magnitude lower than everyone else; the Jets, the second-cheapest team, cost $193 million — this is because the Dolphins carry an impossibly large amount of dead money from Tagovailoa’s contract (somehow, it all comes back to Tua) and money owed to Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey and others. The Dolphins are essentially paying two teams: the one they used to have but have gutted for the rebuild, and the one they currently have, which is totally overmatched.
The Falcons, though, felt helpless against a clearly vulnerable Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 because of their complete lack of a pass rush. When you can’t create any pressure, your opponent will repeatedly have the advantage and usually win. The Falcons spend almost twice what the Dolphins do on their roster, but while they have stars like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, those stars have not been able to make an impact. When you get into the trenches, neither team is particularly competitive.
Ultimately, the Falcons have a bleaker outlook and are my prospective 0-17 winner. Willis and the Dolphins have things to build on and can craft an identity from the sands of a total rebuild. Sure, they’re utterly starved for talent, but there’s a potential competence and a direction in place here. The Falcons and their fans are just … in hell. The lack of any hope at QB combined with the lack of a pass rush is the secret sauce for losing every game you play. Dolphins, please enjoy my suggestion that you may, at some point this season, win a game. It’s probably one of the last compliments I’ll give you this year.
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