The Dallas Cowboys have become a trendy Super Bowl pick in recent weeks, and yet Dak Prescott doesn't seem to be getting much love in MVP conversations. Now, to be fair, there are a host of worthy candidates, but if the Cowboys improve as much as folks think and Prescott remains healthy, he has as good a chance as anyone to take home the hardware this season.
But how exactly does Prescott stack up against the competition? If you zoom in, you'll notice that the 33-year-old has one advantage over every popular MVP candidate.
Matthew Stafford, Rams
- Dak Prescott's advantage: Age and history
This one's pretty simple. Matthew Stafford is coming off an age-defying campaign with the Los Angeles Rams, leading all quarterbacks with 4,707 yards and 46 touchdown passes en route to winning his first MVP. Repeating that, or even hovering around those numbers, at age 38 is a monumental ask. More importantly, Stafford would have to overcome voter and narrative fatigue, given he's the reigning MVP. It's more likely that Stafford wins Super Bowl MVP than repeats as the league's Most Valuable Player.
Drake Maye, Patriots
- Dak Prescott's advantage: Patriots are headed for regression
The Patriots are still a talented team, but does anyone expect them to win 14 games again? Definitely not. They’re headed for regression, and even though Drake Maye has a better supporting cast after New England traded for A.J. Brown and signed Romeo Doubs, the NFL isn’t in the business of handing out MVPs to quarterbacks who finish second in their respective division. Maye undoubtedly has an MVP in his future, but he’ll have to fend off the Bills and the burden of expectations after leading the Patriots to the Super Bowl in his second year.
Joe Burrow, Bengals
- Dak Prescott's advantage: Injury history
Joe Burrow may end up as Prescott's fiercest competition when all is said and done. The Bengals are a popular pick to win the AFC North, and Burrow has put up MVP-caliber numbers when he's stayed healthy, leading to fourth-place finishes in MVP voting in both 2022 and 2024. But your guess is as good as ours as to how many games he plays.
Burrow has missed six or more games in three of his six seasons and played only eight games last season. Prescott has his own durability concerns, but Burrow's availability is arguably the biggest question hanging over his NFL season. You can't win MVP from the sideline. Even three missed games could doom Burrow's chances.
Josh Allen, Bills
- Dak Prescott's advantage: Voter fatigue
Nobody would argue that the Cowboys have a better offensive ecosystem than Buffalo. However, that's a driving force behind Allen's value: No team in the NFL asks more from their quarterback than the Bills do. That explains why Allen has four top-five finishes in the last six seasons and took home the hardware two years ago in 2024. Lamar Jackson fatigue is a big reason Allen won that award, and that could become Prescott's best friend this year.
Think about it. As much as the league adores Josh Allen, if the MVP race came down to Allen and the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, wouldn't Prescott have the edge? Maybe not, but history suggests voters would lean toward the first-time winner, especially if Prescott finally paired MVP-caliber numbers with a big Cowboys season. Narratives and voter fatigue are variables that must be considered.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
- Dak Prescott's advantage: Supporting cast
Lamar Jackson is too much of a unicorn not to put up absurd passing and rushing numbers, but are we absolutely certain new Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is the real deal? This will be his first season calling plays in the NFL. Is it crazy to think there could be some growing pains as Jackson learns a new offense and Doyle gets his feet wet as a play-caller? Even a slight dip in Baltimore's offensive efficiency could be enough to open the MVP door for someone else.
Prescott, meawhile, is entering Year 2 of the Brian Schottenheimer-Klayton Adams offense. The Cowboys are also returning all 11 starters on offense, including George Pickens. There won't be any growing pains between Prescott and Pickens this time around, setting up Prescott to hit the ground running in an offense that already ranked among the NFL's best last season. With another year of familiarity and essentially the entire band back together, there's every reason to believe Dallas could be even more potent offensively in 2026.
Justin Herbert, Chargers
- Dak Prescott's advantage: Statistical history
Folks are understandably excited about the pairing of Justin Herbert and Chargers new OC Mike McDaniel, who'll be Herbert's best play designer of his career. It could lead to a career year for Herbert, but he's never finished particularly close to winning an MVP award. While he received one first-place vote last season, he's never finished higher than ninth in MVP voting.
Prescott already has second-place and sixth-place MVP finishes on his resume. He was also a second-team All-Pro last season, a strong indicator that he would have received MVP votes if the Cowboys' historically bad defense hadn't dragged them out of the playoff picture.
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