It’s 2026. When we talk about fantasy, we do tiers. In recent history, the top tier of tight ends has been one or two guys each season, and if you have one of those guys, you are in an infinitely better spot than the person you’re playing.
There used to be no analysis; you drafted Travis Kelce, and you were set … But it’s been three years since he’s been at that top spot. Now you have to do some thinking about what you’re going to do at tight end, and that’s not a bad thing.
The hunt for TE1
If you prioritized tight end early in the draft last year, you either got burned or you made out like a bandit. If you went after Brock Bowers late in the first or early in the second round, you were in bad shape … He ended up getting hurt early in the season, and everything went to hell immediately.
If you went after Trey McBride (who was drafted as a TE2), you were sitting pretty. He went on to have a historic season and broke the single-season receptions record for a tight end. All the while, Travis Kelce dropped from elite-tier production to just a very good, steady-Eddie level and ended the season as TE3.
Does that mean the draft strategy of targeting an elite tight end early is a bad idea? Not necessarily … Look at where the guys who ended up as TE1 were drafted over the last eight seasons.
Year | TE1 | ADP | Preseason Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 | Trey McBride | 28 | TE2 |
2024 | Brock Bowers (R) | 100.6 | TE11 |
2023 | Sam LaPorta (R) | 168.3 | TE18 |
2022 | Travis Kelce | 15 | TE1 |
2021 | Mark Andrews | 50.6 | TE4 |
2020 | Travis Kelce | 18.8 | TE1 |
2019 | Travis Kelce | 15.2 | TE1 |
2018 | Travis Kelce | 26.6 | TE2 |
The bad news is obviously that Travis Kelce isn’t a ‘grab him and don’t worry for the rest of the season’ guy anymore. But there’s a bunch of good news that goes along with that.
One bit of good news is that aside from 2023 and 2024, when a couple of rookies came out of nowhere, drafting a top tight end has been mega beneficial. Another bit is that there aren’t any rookies who will realistically come out of nowhere and make you feel like you wasted a premier pick. Typically, those early tight ends pay off.
The last bit of good news is a bit of a monkey’s paw: The tight end position is strong this year, so you’re not up a creek if you don’t get the tip-top-tier guys … But that also means that everyone else is in the same boat.
The tight end tiers are bigger and closer
We’ve pivoted from a world where the good tight ends were a rarity to a world where half of the teams are going to have one.
Over the past seven seasons, we’ve seen the tight end position play out just about every way that it could. One guy has been by far the best. Two guys have separated themselves. Then there have been years that felt flukey at the time, where a group of guys is alone at the top. Here’s what that separation looked like, and a short reason why:
- In 2025, the delta between TE1 and TE2 (105.1 points) was the same as the delta between TE2 and TE29. McBride was straight-up awesome.
- In 2024, the delta between TE1 and TE3 (26.1) was the same as the delta between TE3 and TE5. That’s not huge, and there wasn’t much separation from the top guys.
- In 2023, the delta between TE1 and TE3 (15.9) was the same as the delta between TE3 and TE5. That’s not huge, and there wasn’t much separation from the top guys.
- In 2022, the delta between TE1 and TE2 (102.9) was the same as the delta between TE2 and TE21. Kelce was awesome.
- In 2021, the delta between TE1 and TE3 (90.3) was the same as the delta between TE3 and TE22. Mark Andrews and Kelce were awesome.
- In 2020, the delta between TE1 and TE3 (129.2) was the same as the delta between TE3 and TE49. Kelce had the best season of his career, and Darren Waller wasn’t far behind.
- In 2019, the delta between TE1 and TE2 (31.8) was the same as the delta between TE1 and TE6. That’s not huge.
With the emergence of guys like McBride, Bowers, Harold Fannin Jr., Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, and Colston Loveland, and the relative downturn of guys like Kelce and Andrews, we’re shaping up for a year closer to 2024 than 2022.
It used to feel like if I didn’t get a tight end in the first two rounds, I was just going to sit back and grab a guy that I thought had some upside, or completely put it off and stream the position for the year.
After doing 50-ish mock drafts over the past few months, it’s turned into a situation where I want someone to grab Bowers and McBride so I can wait until the fourth or fifth round for a different one of the young guys.
Right now, the top two tight ends are projected to score within 10-ish points of each other, and the top seven tight ends are projected to be within around 60 points of each other. That’s relatively close, especially when you consider the ADP. Bowers’ ADP as TE1 is 23-ish, and Fannin’s ADP as TE7 is 74-ish.
For what it’s worth, guys being drafted around Bowers are Josh Allen, Nico Collins, and George Pickens. And guys being drafted around Fannin are Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Rhamondre Stevenson.
If you’re giving me the choice between Fannin and the best fantasy quarterback with Josh Allen, or Bowers and questionable production with Caleb Williams … Brother, I’m taking that first option every single day.
My point here is that if you don’t want to gamble on drafting the TE1 or TE2, that’s totally fine. But if you want to use a premium pick on those guys, you’re setting yourself up for a good year. However, if you want to wait, you’re still in great shape.
… Just don’t wait too long. Do you really want to bank on a 33-year-old George Kittle who is coming off an Achilles? That’s a hell of a way to lose a fantasy season.
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