Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Six NFL head coaches face immense pressure entering the 2026 season as their job security plummets following disappointing performances.
- Coaches like Aaron Glenn, Matt LaFleur, and Shane Steichen top the hot seat rankings due to recent postseason collapses and poor quarterback play.
- With NFL franchises executing quick coaching fires, these staff members must secure immediate wins and playoff berths to avoid getting terminated.
A good NFL franchise will follow a rule: If you’re bad at your job, you get fired. In the past year, 10 teams fired their head coaches. From a football standpoint, that’s a really good thing because it means teams are following the rule, more or less.
It’s hard to think that a third of the teams in the league are going to fire their guys this year, but there are a handful of coaches who are going into the season on shaky ground. Let’s take a look at the coaches who should be coaching for their jobs in 2026, what their situation is, and why they are where they are.
I emphasized the word “should” because of the first guy:
6. Zac Taylor, Bengals
- Should get fired, but won’t
The Ravens fired John Harbaugh after 18 years, Mike Tomlin left the Steelers after 19 seasons, and the Browns fired Kevin Stefanski after six years … And the Bengals decided to keep Zac Taylor after his third straight hellish season.
It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, but what does with the Bengals? Yes, the Bengals had a couple of awesome seasons in 2021 and 2022, but it’s incredibly easy (and correct) to argue that those were because of an incredibly high-powered offense and a good defense.
This is a franchise that has had the same general manager (Duke Tobin) since 1999 and also kept Marvin Lewis around for 16 seasons even though he was 0-7 in postseason games.
If you're a Bengals fan and looking for a reprieve from this regime, there is a little bit of hope: Lewis was fired three seasons after he had his last playoff appearance. There’s a precedent for Tobin and Mike Brown (the owner) to drop guys who are doing what Taylor is doing …
The problem is that if Burrow and the gang can make it to the playoffs, which is what you ultimately want, it’ll reset the timer. Taylor would end up being around until at least 2030. Yuck
5. Shane Steichen, Colts
- Needs a postseason berth
When the Colts hired Shane Steichen in 2023, he was coming off two seasons as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator. One of those seasons was the 2022 season, when he ran one of the most dominant and explosive passing games in the NFL.
Unfortunately, Indianapolis didn’t have Jalen Hurts throwing to DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Instead, they had Anthony Richardson (who was a rookie) and Gardner Minshew throwing to Michael Pittman and Caleb Downs. That’s very different.
Since Steichen’s been in Indy, it’s mostly been bad. The Colts' first move after hiring him was drafting Richardson fourth overall. He didn’t have a whole lot of experience playing quarterback at a high level (or playing quarterback at all), but he was a freak athlete.
Again, Steichen was coming off of turning Jalen Hurts into an MVP candidate in 2022. So it seems like the thought behind the draft pick was that if he could do that for Hurts, he should be able to do it with Richardson … he didn’t.
Two years later, Steichen’s Colts had a 17-17 record, zero playoff appearances, and were preparing for a quarterback competition between Richardson and Daniel Jones.
Jones won and had an unbelievable start to the 2025 season. Going into their Week 10 bye, they were 8-2, had a +115 point differential (which is awesome), and scored 32.1 points per game. And then after the bye … Woof. They went 0-7, had a -61 point differential, and scored 20.7 points per game.
As for the defense, they allowed 206 points in the first 10 games and 206 points in the last seven games. The wheels fell off everywhere, including with Daniel Jones, who popped his Achilles while playing on a broken fibula in Week 14.
Even when Steichen was on the up-and-up, things came crashing down to Earth even harder.
Now he’s going into his fourth season, and this feels like a real win-or-die year for him. The problem is that Jones’s Achilles happened in December, so if/when he starts in Week 1, there’s no way in hell that he’s going to be the Indiana Jones that we saw at the beginning of 2025.
The Texans and the Jags are looking like bigger and bigger juggernauts coming out of the AFC South, and the world isn’t ready for a reality where three teams from that division make it to the postseason. If the Colts start the season slowly (which they probably will), they’re probably going to be the odd man out of those three teams.
If Steichen doesn’t make it to the postseason in four straight seasons, it’d be totally reasonable for Carlie Irsay-Gordon to fire both Steichen and their GM, Chris Ballard.
Side note: Remember when they fired Frank Reich and hired Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach in 2022? That was so weird. What was that about? It feels like a fever dream.
4. Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
- The end is nigh
Just because someone is a good coordinator doesn’t mean they’re going to be a good head coach. Todd Bowles is a poster child for that. He was the Buccaneers’ defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021, which includes the 2020 season, when his defense held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to nine points in the Super Bowl … So he did a really good job with that.
However, before that, he was the Jets’ head coach from 2015 to 2018, where he had an overall record of 24-40, which is very bad. To be fair, the Jets' head coaches haven’t had real success in a very long time, and Bowles’ 37.5 winning percentage is the highest of any of their past five head coaches … But yeah, it was still bad.
After the Bucs promoted him in 2022, it hasn’t exactly gone great. He’s gone 35-33 in the regular season, which means he is above .500. However, his team just had a pretty massive collapse at the end of the 2025 season. They went into their Week 9 bye with a 6-2 record, then came out of the bye, went 2-7, and missed the postseason for the first time in the Bowles era.
That’s the thing: he’s only won one playoff game, and it was against the 2023 Eagles who desperately needed to be mercy-killed … So that’s not exactly impressive. In the other three postseason games, his defense has allowed an average of 28.3 points and 388.7 yards per game. If you’re going to be an old-school defensive head coach, your defense has got to be better than that.
He’s not exciting, he’s not charismatic, he gives off weird vibes, and he’s not all that good. It really seems like his time in Tampa is coming to an end.
3. Joe Brady, Bills or Mike McCarthy, Steelers
- The yearly one-and-done sacrificial lamb
Since 2006, there have been only five seasons where at least one first-year head coach didn’t get fired: 2008, 2010, 2014, 2017 and 2020. Chances are that one of the 11 guys from this year's coaching cycle is going to get canned. I can see that being either Joe Brady or Mike McCarthy.
For Brady and the Bills, it would happen if the offense comes out and looks completely disjointed again. It’s incredibly clear that Terry Pegula (the owner) makes decisions based on emotion. If their 2026 ends with another wasted season of Josh Allen, I could see both Brandon Beane (GM) and Brady getting the axe.
Also, Joe Brady’s success has come specifically from coaching Joe Burrow and a superpowered 2019 LSU offense, and Josh Allen. Personally, I don’t trust coaches who have only been good with elite players.
For McCarthy, he’s entirely different than everything the Steelers have ever done. Their previous three coaches (which goes back to 1969) were in their 30s when they were hired, and they were defensive-minded guys.
McCarthy is a 62-year-old offensive-minded guy. This just screams ‘Place-Holder Coach.’ If there’s a young defensive hotshot who rises up, a pivot seems highly likely … looking at you, Christian Parker, the Cowboys’ 34-year-old defensive coordinator …
2. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
- Can’t win in January
If you want a head coach who can win regular-season football games, Matt LaFleur is your guy. If you want a head coach who panics and freaks out in competitive postseason games, Matt LaFleur is your guy. Because of that, Green Bay is in a tough spot.
LaFleur has been the Packers' head coach since 2019, and in those seven seasons, he’s made it to the postseason six times (the only year he missed was 2021, Aaron Rodgers’ last season). His postseason record is 3-6.
In 2019, LaFleur’s first season, the Packers held off the Seahawks and won 28-23 in the wild-card round. In the divisional round, the Jimmy G. 49ers beat them 37-20. In that game, all 20 of those points came in the second half, when they were already down 27-0. Fun fact: Jimmy G. threw for 77 total yards, while Raheem Mostert had 29 carries for 220 yards and four touchdowns; that’s kind of nuts.
In 2020, they were the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so their first game was in the divisional round against the Rams, where they won 32-18. That ended up being Jared Goff’s last game as a Ram and Rodgers’ last playoff win as a Packer.
The NFC Championship game ended up being a microcosm for LaFleur’s time in Green Bay. The Packers were down 31-23 (eight points) with 2:05 left in the game. It was fourth-and-goal from the eight. Instead of letting his NFL MVP quarterback make a play, LaFleur decided to kick a field goal … to make it a five-point game… and give the ball back to Tom Brady … who proceeded to milk the rest of the clock. It was baffling.
After that, LaFleur’s only playoff win with Jordan Love was in 2023 when they stomped the Cowboys and won 48-32 (it was 48-16 before Dak Prescott’s signature garbage-time stat padding). They went on to lose 24-21 to the 49ers in the divisional round.
In that game, the Packers’ second-half drives went 75 yards for a touchdown, 20 yards for a touchdown, an interception, a three-and-out, a missed field goal and an interception.
In 2024, they got slaughtered by the Eagles in the wild-card round when Saquon Barkley called game and took a knee on a would-be 76-yard house call. In 2025, they got Caleb Williamsed by the Bears and lost 31-27 after they couldn’t hold on to a 21-3 halftime lead.
My point is that the clock is ticking on Matt LaFleur. If the postseason comes around and he either doesn’t win one game or gets humiliated again, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers drop the weight and get someone new.
1. Aaron Glenn, Jets
- Another brutal hire in a long line of brutal hires
Remember how the Jets hired a defensive head coach last year and then had a defense that never got an interception. Remember how they hired a guy, and then his game management was akin to a person playing Madden on the verge of blacking out?
No one in the entire NFL is on a hotter seat than Aaron Glenn. The Jets have a Week 13 bye. If they’re sitting three or fewer wins by then, he’ll probably be a goner … and unless he somehow gets at least seven wins, he’ll be toast at the end of the season.
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