Wait no more because NFL Week 1 is here. It's an odd schedule to start the 2026 season, of course, with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks getting us underway on Wednesday night, which is then followed by the first-ever Australia NFL game on Thursday night with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers going to battle. But whatever the schedule, football is officially back, which means our NFL picks and predictions for each week are back.
You know the drill. We're going to pick every game each week, offering a prediction for both the straight-up and against the spread winner. We had a disappointing season last year after a stellar 2024. So much of that begins with getting off to a good start, and that's what we're aiming to do with these NFL picks for Week 1. Let's get started.
2025 NFL picks record, straight-up: 170-115 | ATS record: 134-148-3
NFL Week 1 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 1 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Patriots at Seahawks (Wed.) | Seahawks | Patriots +3.5 |
49ers at Rams (Australia) | Rams | Rams -3.5 |
Bills at Texans | Texans | Texans +1.5 |
Bears at Panthers | Bears | Bears -3 |
Browns at Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars -8.5 |
Falcons at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers -3.5 |
Jets at Titans | Jets | Jets +1.5 |
Saints at Lions | Lions | Saints +6.5 |
Buccaneers at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals -3.5 |
Ravens at Colts | Ravens | Ravens -3.5 |
Commanders at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles -5.5 |
Packers at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings -1.5 |
Dolphins at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders -3.5 |
Cardinals at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers -9.5 |
Cowboys at Giants | Cowboys | Cowboys -2.5 |
Broncos at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs -2.5 |
Toughest NFL Week 1 prediction to make
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1.5)
Both the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are coming into the season with viable Super Bowl-level expectations. So without having a data point this season to base anything on, it becomes quite hard to decide between these two.
There is the quarterback matchup to think of, surely. Josh Allen is an all-world offensive threat, while C.J. Stroud is largely viewed as someone who's potentially holding the Texans back. At the same time, though, the defenses that will be on the field provide the opposite reaction. Houston has a championship-caliber unit on that side of the ball, while that might be the weak point for Buffalo. Again, it's just all over the place.
Having said that, with the Bills breaking in new head coach Joe Brady — even if he's been the coordinator in Buffalo for some time — I think we might see at least more growing pains than we will with Houston. Combine that with the strength of the Texans defense and the fact that they're home for the opener, I'll lean to their side. But rest assured, my confidence in it is wavering every minute.
Easiest NFL Week 1 pick on the board
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants
I don't care that this game is at MetLife Stadium. I don't care that the Giants are looking improved coming into the 2026 season. I'm starting this prediction with the simplest of trends, which is that the Cowboys have owned their NFC East rivals in the 2020s. Dallas holds a 10-2 record against the Giants this decade. While both wins for the Giants came while playing at home, the win in the final week of last year's regular season came with Joe Milton splitting snaps with Dak Prescott.
For starters, the Cowboys should be substantially improved from last year. They had one of the league's most prolific offenses, but the defense couldn't stop a cold. Enter new coordinator Christian Parker, who is expected to have a dramatic and immediate effect on that side of the ball, as will a personnel overhaul that should excite fans. That's amplified by the fact that the Giants are breaking in an entire new coaching staff with a second-year quarterback in Jaxson Dart.
I'm not actually trying to put down the Giants. I'm high on Dart and what this team can do and build upon behind him this season. I just don't think a Week 1 matchup against this specific iteration of the Cowboys is the spot to hop on New York's bandwagon.
The pick that probably has you confused
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
By most prognostications, the Green Bay Packers are much better team than the Minnesota Vikings. And that's probably the correct way to look at it. For this Week 1 game specifically, however, things could be a bit trickier than that. That's why the Vikings are favored at home in the first place, and it's why I'm riding with the favorite this week to kind of deliver a shock to Green Bay.
There are definite questions I have about the Vikings over the course of the entire season. Will the defense, even with Brian Flores, hold up? How long will the Kyler Murray shine last? Those concerns extend for 18 weeks, though. For Week 1, I'm bullish on Murray in Kevin O'Connell's system catching some teams by surprise. Let's not forget how good the Minnesota offensive line, the weapons and even Murray himself can be at full strength.
Given that the Packers are also without Micah Parsons still on a defense that's also replacing coordinator Jeff Hafley, that feels like a sneaky edge that could push things in Minnesota's favor. Maybe I'm the one who looks confused and foolish when this one's said and done, but give me the Vikings.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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