The Kansas City Chiefs and the Carolina Panthers both earned crucial wins in Week 4, and now get a week off to recover and plan for Week 6. The rest of the NFL, though, has games in Week 5 to worry about, and when looking at the schedule, we could be in for a treat.
There are marquee matchups everywhere you turn, with games like Bears-Packers, Raiders-Patriots, 49ers-Seahawks and Bills-Rams to look forward to. There are even important games when looking at the reverse standings, with the winless Texans taking on the winless Titans. Oh, and not to mention a Jaguars team hitting its stride now set to travel across the pond to take on an Eagles team heading in the complete opposite direction.
Week 5 has everything you could be looking for on the schedule, and with all but three of the games within a five-point spread, we could be in for a ton of close contests. That, of course, can impact our record of picking games straight up and against the spread.
NFL Week 5 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 5 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Buccaneers at Cowboys (TNF) | Cowboys | Cowboys -8.5 |
Eagles at Jaguars (London) | Jaguars | Jaguars -7 |
Browns at Jets | Browns | Browns +1.5 |
Bears at Packers | Bears | Bears -2.5 |
Bengals at Dolphins | Bengals | Dolphins +7.5 |
Raiders at Patriots | Patriots | Patriots -3.5 |
Vikings at Saints | Vikings | Vikings -1.5 |
Texans at Titans | Texans | Texans -7 |
Giants at Commanders | Giants | Giants +3.5 |
Colts at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers -1.5 |
Broncos at Chargers | Broncos | Broncos -3.5 |
Lions at Cardinals | Lions | Cardinals +4.5 |
49ers at Seahawks | 49ers | 49ers +3 |
Ravens at Falcons (SNF) | Falcons | Falcons -3 |
Bills at Rams (MNF) | Rams | Rams -2.5 |
Cody Williams' 2026 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 42-22 (Last week 12-4) | ATS Record: 29-33-2 (Last week 8-7-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Toughest NFL Week 5 prediction to make
San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
In a way, picking against the Seattle Seahawks in this game feels disrespectful. Not only are the Seahawks defending champions and off to a 3-1 start, but they blasted this San Francisco 49ers team in the postseason last year on their way to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Picking against the Seattle at home feels even more disrespectful, regardless of the opponent.
With that being said, the Niners are 4-0, with quality wins over the Broncos and Rams (both by two or more scores, might I add). On the other hand, while the Seahawks are 3-1, the quality of competition they've faced is nowhere near as fierce as what San Francisco has faced. Yes, the Niners are incredibly banged up, but that's become the norm with this team in recent years, and that doesn't seem to bother them. Picking a road underdog in Seattle, of all places, is tough, but the Niners have earned that kind of respect at this point.
Easiest NFL Week 5 pick on the board
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
Normally, picking such a heavy favorite to cover a massive spread isn't the best idea, or at least doesn't qualify as the "easiest pick on the board," but hear me out. The Dallas Cowboys are the NFC's best offensive team thus far, averaging 30.5 points per game through the first month of the season. Does anyone really think that an 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that was unable to sack Jordan Love behind a horrific offensive line a single time can do anything to slow this Dallas offense down?
Sure, the Cowboys can be beaten defensively (they've allowed 28 points per game, fourth-most in the NFL), but does anyone think the Bucs are capable of scoring in bunches right now? UDFA Jalon Daniels might've looked a bit better than expected in his first NFL start in Week 4, but he still threw for just 148 yards and tossed two key interceptions against a very beatable Packers defense. At the end of the day, the Cowboys should be able to score at will against Tampa, and even though Dallas' defense is not good at all, I find it hard to believe the Bucs will even score 20 points in this game. Dallas, with home-field advantage, should win this game in a rout.
The pick that you're curious about
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+7.5)
On the surface, this should be a blowout. The Cincinnati Bengals have Joe Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks on the planet, fully healthy, and an improved (albeit inconsistent thus far) defense. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins look like a team poised to win maybe one or two games this season, having lost their first four contests and boasting the NFL's worst point differential (-55) by a wide margin.
That said, the Bengals could be without both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who left Cincinnati's Week 4 game early, and Ollie Gordon II looks like a running back who can really wreak havoc if he gets enough touches. The duo of Gordon and Malik Willis can surprise some people if the Dolphins can get creative, and while Burrow will play, the possibility of Cincy missing Chase and Higgins means that their offense might not be nearly as dynamic as accustomed.
I have full confidence in Burrow making whatever plays he needs to down the stretch to pull out a much-needed win for the Bengals, but the Dolphins, who only lost by one score on the road against the unbeaten Vikings in Week 4, could very well keep things more interesting than anticipated.
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