Predicting the NFL's last-place team in every division this season

Training camps are set to begin later this month and hope springs eternal for all 32 teams. Even fans of the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns can convince themselves they can make a postseason run if everything goes right, although reality should hit them quickly once the regular season shows which teams are better set up for success.

Who's campaign is destined to end in disaster with coaches on the hot seat and potentially in line to take Arch Manning in the draft? Let's go division-by-division and spotlight which teams should finish in fourth place in the 2026 season.

AFC East: Miami Dolphins

The Jets have staked a strong claim to last in the AFC East for the better part of a decade but they have improved enough this offseason to move up a slot. Miami, on the other hand, has ripped up everything that wasn't bolted to the floor and is set to enter training camp with an unrecognizable roster.

Perhaps there is a scenario where Malik Willis clicks as a capable NFL starter and a hungry group of young players surprises on the way to wild card contention. The more likely path involves a lot of losses and the opportunity to land one of the top quarterbacks in April's draft.

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

The Myles Garrett trade marked the end of an era for Cleveland, which burned the momentum of an early 2020s postseason contender with the disastrous Deshaun Watson trade. The Browns apparently are intent to let Watson compete for the starting job this season but the most likely scenario is that Shedeur Sanders will get a year to see if he can become Cleveland's long awaited savior under center.

The AFC North is stacked, however, with Baltimore and Cincinnati carrying loaded rosters while Pittsburgh is gearing up for one more run with Aaron Rodgers under center. There is a chance that the roof caves in on Pittsburgh without Mike Tomlin there to maintain his streak of non-losing seasons, but the smart money says the Browns are a fourth place team.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

The popular pick in the AFC South will be Tennessee, which appears to be the least talented team in the division by far. New head coach Robert Saleh should be able to do enough good work with the defense to steal some wins for the Titans, which opens the door for the Colts to combust into a last place finish that should cost Shane Steichen his job.

Indianapolis didn't make a ton of changes off of a miserable collapse to end the 2025 season and have quarterback Daniel Jones coming back off a torn Achilles tendon, which could impact his mobility. The psychological damage last year's meltdown had could linger early into this season for the Colts, who have a very tough three game stretch (Baltimore, at Kansas City, Houston) that could set the tone for a long year.

AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders

The building project is just beginning in Las Vegas, with new coach Klint Kubiak using 2026 to lay the foundation for a team that can finally win consistently in its new home. Veteran Kirk Cousins is expected to be the Week 1 starter for the Raiders, but the expectation is that top pick Fernando Mendoza will take over at some point.

The AFC West is a brutally competitive division with both the Broncos and Chargers coming off postseason appearances while Kansas City is likely to bounce back from a lost year. Tabbing the Raiders to finish last in this group is an easy call.

NFC East: Washington Commanders

This is another highly competitive division, but Dallas and Philadelphia appear to have a leg up on the other two teams. The Giants have spent a lot of time in last place in the past decade but the arrival of John Harbaugh should be enough to get more out of the talent on their roster, leaving last place to the Commanders.

Washington had a rough year in 2025 after injuries short circuited their season and the current roster is still far too old to effectively utilize Jayden Daniels' prime. There is a chance Daniels can put the team on his back and carry them to a Wild Card spot, but last place is the likelier outcome that puts head coach Dan Quinn firmly on the hot seat.

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

The NFC North is the only division where there is a logical argument for any team in it to either win the division or bottom out in fourth place. Using quarterbacks as a tiebreaker is a good way to sort these teams out, assuming health, and the Vikings have the most questionable quarterback room in this division.

J.J. McCarthy flopped in his first year and now has to beat out Kyler Murray to win the job. The rest of Minnesota's roster is good enough to be a playoff team, but so-so quarterback play will likely hold them back from achieving their goals.

NFC South: Carolina Panthers

This could certainly qualify as a hot take after Carolina won the division last season and gave the Rams everything they could handle on Wild Card weekend. The Panthers only went 8-9 to win that division, however, and the rest of the division has either made significant personnel moves to improve or added new coaching to get more out of talented rosters.

This pick bets heavily on Bryce Young regressing back to the inconsistent play he had demonstrated prior to the second half of the 2025 season. A first place schedule may also expose Carolina's limitations, setting them up for the dreaded first-to-worst season.

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

This was the easiest call on the board as Arizona has the unfortunate reality of sharing a division with three legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Mike LaFleur is on board as the Cardinals' new coach and has his work cut out for him with no clear plan at quarterback and a mish-mashed roster of young pieces and veterans who could be traded if things fall apart.

That isn't the worst place to begin for LaFleur, who has a very low bar to clear if he can simply keep Arizona competitive behind veteran starter Jacoby Brissett. The reward could be quite important as well as the Cardinals figure to be one of the favorites to pick near the top of the draft in next year's quarterback-rich class.

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