Predicting when every 1-0 NFL team will lose its first game of the season

The Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders have a 1-0 record, and the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams have an 0-1 record. That’s the reality of the NFL world that we’re living in. At some point in the season, those records will even out.

We’re not focusing on where all the winless teams finally get right; no, no, no … Instead, we’re being Negative Nancys and finding out where those technically undefeated teams find their first loss.

Arizona Cardinals

Week 1: 26-14 @ Chargers
Week 2: vs. Seahawks

Going into the season, we knew the Cardinals were going to be a bad team in a hard division, with an incredibly difficult schedule … But if there were a team that would win a game that they shouldn’t win, and muck up where they’ll pick in the 2027 draft, it would also be them.

They did that right off the bat when they took down the Chargers. Now they get to play a team that is both established and awesome, and they’ll get right back on track with being bad.

Baltimore Ravens

Week 1: 41-23 @ Colts
Week 2: vs. Saints
Week 3: vs. Cowboys
Week 4: vs. Titans
Week 5: @ Falcons
Week 6: @ Browns
Week 7: vs. Bengals

The Ravens looked very juggernauty in Week 1, and they have an early schedule that a juggernaut should be able to sleepwalk through. However, they do play in the AFC North, and no matter how good or bad a team in the AFC North looks, they always end up dropping a game to someone else in the division. It just so happens that the Ravens play back-to-back divisional games.

You have to think that they’re not going to lose to the Browns because that team looks as bad as ever, and they might be on their third quarterback of the season by Week 6 … So that means they’re going to get their first loss when Cincinnati comes to town in Week 7.

Buffalo Bills

Week 1: 36-31 @ Texans
Week 2: vs. Lions
Week 3: vs. Chargers
Week 4: vs. Patriots
Week 5: @ Rams
Week 6: @ Raiders
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: vs. Ravens

If Josh Allen and the Bills offense can beat the Texans in Houston, look awesome doing it, and have that performance not be some Week 1 bologna … then they’ll be operating on a whole different level this season.

The problem is that their defense looks like it still might be a hot bag of trash. If that’s the case, an ultra-dynamic team like the Ravens will control the game, hit explosives when it needs to, limit Josh Allen’s downfield throws, and hand the Bills their first loss of the season.

Chicago Bears

Week 1: 59-37 @ Panthers
Week 2: vs. Vikings

What the Bears did in Week 1 was unbelievably impressive; 59 points is a hilariously high number. If Ben Johnson wanted to go full hater mode and go for two at the end of the game, he could’ve made it a cool 60. They’re going to put up those kinds of numbers (probably not that high) a bunch this season … but not against Brian Flores and the Vikings, and not in Week 2.

The Bears might be able to put up points, but Flores’ defense never lets them really pull ahead and make the game completely out of control.

On top of that, the Bears’ defense has a wildly low floor that Kevin O’Connell can expose, regardless of whether the quarterback is Carson Wentz or Kyler Murray. It’ll be a close game, but the Vikings will humble the Bears.

Cincinnati Bengals

Week 1: 33-27 vs. Buccaneers
Week 2: @ Texans

The Bengals were a very, very opportunistic defense in Week 1. The Buccaneers were able to move the ball without a whole lot of trouble, but they fumbled four times, and the Bengals recovered all of them.

The Texans are going to be a much more stingy defense than Tampa Bay, and if their offense looks half as good as it did against the Bills (minus the fumbles and ding-dong plays), they’ll be able to put up big-boy yardage against the Bengals.

This will be a close game, but Houston’s defense will make the plays to win the game, and Cincinnati will have a very sobering loss.

Detroit Lions

Week 1: 31-30 (OT) vs. Saints
Week 2: @ Bills

The Lions beat the Saints in Week 1, but it was a game that went to overtime even though the Lions had a very solid 21-0 lead in the third quarter.

The Lions are in a world of trouble on both sides of the ball. Going into the Thursday night game against the Bills, they’ll be without two of their starting offensive linemen, Christian Mahogany (LG) and Blake Miller (RT). That’s not a great place to be when it’s pretty clear the best way to get after Buffalo’s defense is on the ground … It also doesn’t help that it’s a short week and Jahmyr Gibbs just had 34 touches four days prior.

They’ll be able to move the ball because they’re the Lions, but it’s going to be grosser than what we’re all used to.

On defense, the Lions are a train wreck right now, specifically in the secondary. With Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph on the PUP list, they’re starting Chuck Clark and Avonte Maddox. Those guys are certainly past their prime and are no match for a Bills offense that wants to rip the ball downfield all the time.

Football is more fun when the Lions are good, and hopefully they get back on track after their mini-bye, but they’ll lose their first game in Week 2.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 1: 34-10 vs. Browns
Week 2: @ Broncos
Week 3: vs. Patriots
Week 4: @ Bengals

If the actual Jaguars are 75 percent as good as the version of the Jaguars that got to play the Browns, they’re going to be a very solid team who will be able to take down a bunch of the upper tier of AFC teams … But not all of them.

They're going to be tested a lot over the next couple of weeks with the Broncos and the Pats, but those offenses are significantly less high-powered than the Bengals’.

No matter the year, and no matter who the Bengals' starting quarterback is, Cincinnati has had the Jaguars number in the Trevor Lawrence era. Week 4 is going to be just another chapter in that book.

Kansas City Chiefs

Week 1: 31-10 vs. Broncos
Week 2: vs. Colts
Week 3: @ Dolphins
Week 4: @ Raiders
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: vs. Chargers
Week 7: @ Seahawks

The Chiefs' running game looked as good as it has in more than a decade on Sunday … Their passing game? Well … We’ll have to wait and see what that looks like when they are actually in a situation where they need to throw the ball.

The good news is that they shouldn’t have to do that until the end of October when they go to Seattle. The bad news is that they have to go to Seattle … Sure, it’ll be a revenge game for Kenneth Walker III, but that’s a defense that’s going to capitalize on a wonky passing game.

Seattle will walk away looking pretty.

Las Vegas Raiders

Week 1: 27-13 vs. Dolphins
Week 2: @ Chargers

Is it dumb to believe that the Chargers can turn it around after getting embarrassed by the Cardinals in Week 1? Yep, but weird things happen in Week 1, and I’d be willing to bet that ends up being a ‘Remember when the Cardinals beat the Chargers in Week 1? That was weird,’ kind of thing.

The Raiders are another team in an unfortunate situation where they got a win over a bad team, and now they have to play a desperate team that wants to be competitive in the postseason. I reckon that it’ll go poorly for Las Vegas.

Minnesota Vikings

Week 1: 39-22 vs. Packers
Week 2: @ Bears
Week 3: @ Buccaneers
Week 4: vs. Dolphins
Week 5: @ Saints
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: vs. Colts
Week 8: @ Lions
Week 9: vs. Bills

The Vikings have a tough, and very losable Week 2 game in Chicago. Luckily, Brian Flores has done a pretty solid job limiting Ben Johnson’s offense and keeping the Vikings’ offense in games against Johnson over the past three seasons. When push comes to shove on Sunday, it’s an NFC North divisional game, so they’ll end up splitting the series. I think the Vikings should be able to move the ball against the Bears defense and win that game. After that, they have a fairly clear road to wins.

However, it is the Vikings … They could easily lose a very winnable game against the Dolphins because that’s something they do. But I’m not going to predict something dumb like that. Instead, I’m looking at Week 8 and Week 9. If they make it through the Game in Detroit, they’ll get smacked in the face by the Bills in Week 9.

New York Giants

Week 1: 28-20 vs. Cowboys
Week 2: vs. Rams

The Giants got a big win in Week 1. They were able to control the game, play an incredibly physical brand of football, and turn the Cowboys into a puddle of sad dreams. Unfortunately for New York, they’re playing a very well-rested and very desperate Rams team in Week 2.

The bully ball that they were playing against a talentless Dallas defense isn’t going to work against a very talented Rams defense. They’ll force the Giants to make mistakes and leave no doubt that New York is a significantly lesser team.

New York Jets

Week 1: 23-10 @ Titans
Week 2: vs. Packers

The Jets bullied the Titans in Week 1 and got one of the most unimpressive wins anyone will get this season. In Week 2, they play a real football team, with a real head coach, who is also coming off a game that they choked away.

The Packers should be able to dunk on the Jets over and over again, get their groove back, and look like a team that’s ready to win the NFC North. The Jets are going to be a punching bag, but they're going to be a punching bag that has a 1-1 record.

Philadelphia Eagles

Week 1: 24-22 vs. Commanders
Week 2: @ Titans
Week 3: @ Bears
Week 4: vs. Rams
Week 5: vs. Jaguars

If you asked me what I believed, the Eagles are going to go 17-0 because Go Birds. However, if I wanted to ground myself in non-Eagles reality, the Birds will lose their first game when they go to London to play the Jaguars. We know that Jalen Hurts and company can win in just about every situation possible. The only unfamiliar situation is an overseas game, and that's what this Week 5 game is

They did play the Packers in Brazil at the beginning of the 2024 season, and while that is a long plane ride, it doesn’t have any massive time zone changes.

I might be more confident if this game were against any team other than the Jags because those teams don’t make this trip every single year … But it is against the Jags. I imagine that Liam Coen will have his guys ready to go, and they’ll look more normal when they get to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 1: 20-13 vs. Falcons
Week 2: @ Patriots

The Steelers looked pretty good against a Falcons team that was starting their QB3 in Week 1. It was the best situation a team could have when it comes to playing a warm-up game in September.

In Week 2, they’re getting a real quarterback and a real offense with multiple weapons … they’re not the caliber of weapons that Atlanta has, but New England is much more effective at using them.

The Patriots looked bad in Week 1, and it’s going to be hard for them, and especially Drake Maye, to look that bad again. However, his kryptonite is playing defenses that aren’t terrible, and the Steelers defense definitely isn’t terrible.

I think this game will come down to the Patriots’ defense taking away Aaron Rodgers’ ability to make plays. The Falcons didn’t have the horses to do that, but the Patriots definitely do. It’ll be a close game, but the Patriots will even out the Steelers record.

San Francisco 49ers

Week 1: 27-7 @ Rams
Week 2: vs. Dolphins
Week 3: vs. Cardinals
Week 4: vs. Broncos
Week 5: @ Seahawks

The 49ers looked really, really good against the Rams in Week 1. Now, did the Rams absolutely botch their travel plans to Australia and look completely non-competitive? Yeah, definitely … But a 27-7 win is a 27-7 win.

All they had to do was make it through that game, and the rest of their September schedule is a cakewalk. By the time they get to the Broncos in Week 4, Denver should have some level of stability … and a stable Broncos team is a dangerous Broncos team. If the 49ers don’t lose that game, they’ll lose the next game when they go to Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks

Week 1: 13-10 vs. Patriots
Week 2: @ Cardinals
Week 3: @ Commanders
Week 4: vs. Chargers
Week 5: vs. 49ers
Week 6: @ Broncos

We don’t know how long Sam Darnold is going to be out with his hip/glute injury. Luckily, they haven’t put him on IR, so he can come back whenever he’s ready. I imagine that they’ll want him to come back for their first divisional game of the season in Week 5, and that’ll help get them over the top there.

Unfortunately, they’ll have to follow that up with a Thursday night game in Denver. At that point in the season, the Broncos will have their ducks in a row on both defense and offense.

This will be the Broncos’ Super Bowl. If Bo Nix didn’t break his ankle in the divisional round of the playoffs last year, they would’ve beaten the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, and they would’ve made Super Bowl LX a competitive game. They’ll look good on the short week and end Seattle’s win streak.

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