There's no better time for NFL fans to overreact to events that take place than after Week 1. I mean, I'm seeing people say the Chicago Bears will have a historically great offense after scoring 59 points and that the Los Angeles Rams should be panicking after losing one (1) game on the other side of the world against another Super Bowl contender.
Ultimately, while it's easy to overreact to whatever happens in the first real week of football, there are one-week flukes all the time. Many of the teams that lost in Week 1 will find a way to win in Week 2. Others, though, might need to wait a while.
Atlanta Falcons
Predicted first win: Week 14, Sun. Dec. 13, at Browns
Entering the season, I thought the Atlanta Falcons had enough talent, thanks to strong skill-position talent and promising edge rushers, to maybe be a scrappy 6-11 team. Well, Jalon Walker is out for the year, James Pearce Jr. is suspended for half of it, and the quarterback situation, with both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. injured, is worse than anyone anticipated. Now, I don't know how many games this Falcons team can actually win.
That's only emphasized when looking at their schedule, which includes games against teams like the Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Chiefs, Lions and other strong foes — not what you want to see as a team that finished in third place in 2025. The Falcons might be able to pull off a win earlier if Penix or Tagovailoa returns from injury and impresses, but Atlanta fans might need to wait until the second half of the season when the team makes a rare trip to Cleveland to watch their team end a game in victory formation.
Carolina Panthers
Predicted first win: Week 2, Sun. Sept. 20, at Falcons
One of those games I don't expect the Falcons to win will come in Week 2 against a Carolina Panthers team that put up 37 points and lost by more than 20 in Week 1. Yes, the defense looked utterly disastrous, particularly against the run (which can be problematic against a Bijan Robinson-led Falcons team), but the downgrade at quarterback from Caleb Williams to presumably Cooper Rush cannot be overstated. Even if Penix or someone else starts that game, Bryce Young will be the best quarterback on the field by a mile.
Not to mention, while Young has had his share of ups and downs in his NFL career, he's gone 4-1 against the Falcons thus far with some ridiculous numbers in Atlanta, in particular. Young has a history of dominating the Falcons, the Panthers have proven they can score points in bunches, and their defense should have much better luck given Atlanta's quarterback situation. That seems promising for a Panthers team trying to even its record.
Cleveland Browns
Predicted first win: Week 4, Thurs. Oct. 1, vs. Steelers
The Cleveland Browns looked as bad as anticipated in Week 1. Deshaun Watson looked completely overmatched, and the defense, which was once this team's saving grace, looked like a shell of itself without Myles Garrett. Given how things looked, it'd be fair to assume the Browns would be waiting a while to win a game. That could very well be the case, but hear me out.
Watson is the Week 2 starter, and the Browns don't seem too eager to pull the trigger on that doomed experiment, but assuming the Browns lose in Weeks 2 and 3, with Week 3 coming in their home opener, can they really turn to Watson for Week 4? The Browns could catch an older Steelers team on a short week with Shedeur Sanders under center and a whole lot of momentum. Not to mention, they've won three straight home games against Pittsburgh. Never say never!
Dallas Cowboys
Predicted first win: Week 2, Sun. Sept. 20, vs. Commanders
The Dallas Cowboys suffered a tough Week 1 loss to an improved Giants team, but Week 2 presents a soft spot on their schedule as they face the Washington Commanders in their home opener. Washington is a team Dallas has had its way with in recent years, as Dak Prescott has gone 13-2 with an impressive 32-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his career against the Commanders.
It's entirely possible that Dallas' defense, which looked incredibly vulnerable in Week 1, will lay another egg, but this offense is so uber-talented and should dominate a weak Washington secondary. I think that offense is so potent that it shouldn't be long before Cowboys fans get to enjoy a Victory Monday.
Denver Broncos
Predicted first win: Week 4, Sun. Oct. 4, at 49ers
It feels wrong to predict that a team as loaded as the Denver Broncos won't win a game until Week 4, but here's why that is the case. First, the Broncos looked bad in Week 1, getting completely outclassed in Kansas City. It might take them time to get going. Second, look at their upcoming schedule.
Week 2 has Denver hosting a Jaguars team that looked great in Week 1 and won 34-20 in Denver just last year. Week 3 has Denver hosting a Rams team that began the year as clear-cut Super Bowl favorites. I'm not even fully sold on the Broncos earning a tough road win in San Francisco in Week 4, but I also can't say I see them starting 0-4. That'd really be something.
Green Bay Packers
Predicted first win: Week 3, Thurs. Sept. 24, vs. Falcons
Most assume the Green Bay Packers will bounce back from their Week 1 defeat and knock off the New York Jets in Week 2 because, well, they're the Jets. Are we sure, though? The Packers' offensive line is an absolute mess, and with Josh Jacobs out, it's hard to trust their running game. On the flip side, the Jets' offensive line dominated in Week 1 and Breece Hall has the talent to run all over Green Bay's defense.
As unfortunate as starting 0-2 would be, I do think the losing would stop there, with a quarterback-less Falcons team next up for Green Bay. I have serious questions about this Packers team after their Week 1 disaster, but the Falcons are in a much worse spot.
Houston Texans
Predicted first win: Week 2, Sun. Sept. 20, vs. Bengals
The Houston Texans technically lost in Week 1, but was it really a loss given that C.J. Stroud had his best showing in dare I say years? Stroud was dominant in the passing attack, and helped Houston put 31 points up on the board. Yes, the defense had an off game, but Josh Allen was also on the other side.
As good as Joe Burrow is, he's not Allen, and the Bengals' offense didn't look insanely explosive in Week 1. Houston's elite defense should bounce back, and assuming Stroud can have another quality showing, the Texans should get back on the winning track in what should be a thrilling game.
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted first win: Week 4, Sun. Oct. 4 at Commanders (in London)
The Indianapolis Colts never stood a chance against the Ravens in Week 1, and with games against other elite AFC teams like the Chiefs and Texans next up, an 0-3 start feels extremely possible, if not likely. Fortunately, their Week 4 clash against the Washington Commanders in London feels very winnable.
The Commanders can be explosive offensively, but so can the Colts. By Week 4, perhaps Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce will be at 100 percent, and we saw what the Colts could do with them at their best last season. I have more faith in the Colts' defense slowing Washington down than the other way around.
Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted first win: Week 2, Sun. Sept. 20, vs. Raiders
The Los Angeles Chargers suffered the most embarrassing Week 1 defeat of any team on this list, so perhaps I shouldn't be banking on them to bounce back so quickly against a Raiders team that won in Week 1. I'm going to be doing that, though, for a couple of reasons.
First, the Raiders will either be without Brock Bowers or with a version of Bowers that is less than 100 percent, greatly limiting the ceiling of their offense. Second, the Chargers need this win. Their upcoming schedule after this game features contests against Super Bowl contenders like the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Rams. The Chargers are at home with a talent advantage and a whole lot of motivation. I'd be shocked if they lost this game.
Los Angeles Rams
Predicted first win: Week 2, Mon. Sept. 21, vs. Giants
Week 1 was a bad look for the Los Angeles Rams, but there're a few things to consider. That game was played in Australia, and their opponent, the 49ers, could end the year in contention to win the Super Bowl. Week 2 should be a lot more favorable for the Rams, as they'll be on their home turf with extra time to prepare before facing the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
The Rams will be without Myles Garrett, but Aaron Donald could make his return for this game. Even if Donald doesn't, L.A. has so much talent both offensively and defensively that it's impossible to pick against them. The Giants might make it closer than initially expected, but the Rams should come out on top.
Miami Dolphins
Predicted first win: 2027
Here's the big one. Odds are, the Miami Dolphins are going to win a game. There's a reason there hasn't been a single team to go winless since the NFL adopted a 17-game schedule. With that being said, who, when looking at the Dolphins schedule, do you expect them to beat? And with what roster?
It's abundantly clear that the Dolphins are rebuilding and playing for the future. That could very well work out, but it won't win them many games in 2026. Malik Willis is a fun project, but he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the sport. The skill position talent beyond De'Von Achane is pretty nonexistent. The secondary is a mess, and the Dolphins are not positioned to win battles in the trenches. Again, there's a good chance they'll win at least one game, but it's tough to predict that as of now, especially after how awful they looked in Week 1 in what could be their most winnable opponent of the year.
New England Patriots
Predicted first win: Week 2, Sun. Sept. 20, vs. Steelers
The New England Patriots were embarrassed in their Super Bowl rematch in Week 1, and with A.J. Brown out, who knows how this offense will look in Week 2? With that being said, Drake Maye should be more comfortable at home and against a weaker Pittsburgh Steelers defense, and New England's defense certainly played well enough to beat Seattle.
If they were able to contain the Seahawks (even if most of the game was with Drew Lock under center), why can't they contain an offense led by 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers? The Steelers were fortunate to face a beaten-up Falcons team in Week 1, but the Patriots should have their way with Pittsburgh in Week 2.
New Orleans Saints
Predicted first win: Week 3, Sun. Sept. 27, vs. Raiders
The New Orleans Saints were as close as any team on this list to winning in Week 1, as they fell by a mere point in overtime, so their fan base should be feeling pretty good. Unfortunately, their Week 2 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, dominated in Week 1 and will be a tough team for the Saints to beat on the road. A team the Saints should have no problem handling, though, is the Las Vegas Raiders, whom they play in Week 3.
That's no slight to the Raiders, who should be much improved, but I'm an optimistic Saints believer. They finished last season incredibly strongly under Tyler Shough, and he showed no signs of slowing down in Week 1. If the Saints want to win the NFC South, they're going to need to win this game, and I think they'll make it happen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted first win: Week 2, Sun. Sept. 20, vs. Browns
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost in Week 1 mainly because they couldn't control the football. As bad as that is, I don't expect them to fumble the football four times as they did in Week 1, and perhaps most importantly, their Week 2 matchup couldn't be any easier on paper.
The Bucs are slated to begin their home season with the Cleveland Browns coming to town. Let me rephrase that — the Buccaneers play their first home game against the Deshaun Watson-led Cleveland Browns as the opposition. The Bucs will be motivated, the crowd will be fired up, and the Browns will be unable to do much at all offensively as long as Watson is under center. In other words, I'd be stunned if the Buccaneers began 0-2.
Tennessee Titans
Predicted first win: Week 7, Sun. Oct. 25, vs. Browns
The Tennessee TItans were outplayed in all facets in Week 1 and now face a tough upcoming schedule with opponents like the Eagles, Ravens and Texans on the docket the next month. Perhaps the Titans can steal one of their first six games, but I'm not sure they'll be favored to win a matchup until Week 7 when they host the Cleveland Browns.
By then, Shedeur Sanders or someone else should be starting for the Browns (please), which could make life tougher for Tennessee, but if Cam Ward is ever going to break out, it'll probably need to happen in this game. Again, Myles Garrett is gone, and as good as Denzel Ward is, the rest of that Browns' secondary is suspect. If the Titans can't win this game, I don't know when their first win will come.
Washington Commanders
Predicted first win: Week 5, Sun. Oct. 11, vs. Giants
The Washington Commanders fell in Week 1 and with matchups against the Cowboys, Seahawks and Colts coming up, it could be a while before they earn a win. I'm not even fully confident in my prediction that Washington wins in Week 5 against a much-improved Giants team, but that's what we're going with.
The Giants' elite pass rush can make things tough on Jayden Daniels, especially with Laremy Tunsil out for much of the year, but Daniels also has the athletic ability to dodge pressure and make life difficult on the Giants' defense. The Commanders have given the Giants trouble in recent years, and while this is a different Giants team, Washington should be extra motivated and be able to do enough to pull this one out at home.
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