The nature of the NFL — a relatively short season, an unbalanced schedule and a hard salary cap — makes it one of the easiest leagues in the world for a team to go from bottom-dweller to playoff contender in one offseason.
In 2026, there are some teams that finished last in their divisions in 2025 that are set to contend for division crowns, while some other teams look destined for another last-place result. Let's rank them by the likelihood of a worst-to-first season.
8. Arizona Cardinals
We start with the Arizona Cardinals. No disrespect to the Cardinals, but when you play in a division with three legit Super Bowl contenders and Jacoby Brissett is your projected starting quarterback, you're not winning the division.
Arizona's addition of running back Jeremiyah Love shows the team is doubling down on what went okay-ish last season (offense) while continuing to forsake a defense that ranked 29th in points allowed per game.
There's just no upside here. The best-case scenario is probably, what...five wins? Actually, the best scenario for the Cardinals would be that the team eschews the traditional idea of "trying to win football games" and just names third-round pick Carson Beck as the Week 1 starter. See what he can do and if he might be part of the team's future, while setting yourself up for the Arch Manning and Dante Moore sweepstakes if Beck is bad.
7. New York Jets
The New York Jets are probably not that much better of a football team than Arizona is, but sharing a division with just two Super Bowl contenders instead of three makes it theoretically easier for the team to magically win the AFC East. It won't happen, but it's more possible.
The big issue for the Jets is that Geno Smith is set to be the team's starting quarterback. He played really well in his stint with the Seahawks, but all that goodwill evaporated in 2025 as he led the Raiders to the worst record in the NFL, tossing a league-worst 17 interceptions and going 2-13 in his 15 starts.
Not that the Jets should really care that much. This team knows what it is: a team that desperately needed Dante Moore to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. Once that didn't happen, the 2026 season became about positioning itself for a run at one of the top quarterbacks in next year's class. There's definitely some talent on both sides of the ball (more on the offense than the defense), so maybe this team manages to win more games than expected and finishes third in the AFC East, ahead of Miami. A division title, though? Nah.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders likely have more talent than several teams ahead of them on this list, but the issue with a worst-to-first finish is that they play in a division with the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs. Yes, the Chiefs struggled last year, but the team is setting up for one more Super Bowl run in Travis Kelce's final NFL season.
Vegas also has to figure out what its identity is. The team drafted Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall, but also added Kirk Cousins in a move that screams "we want to let Mendoza sit for a bit." That's fine, even if it defies how teams have recently handled quarterbacks taken at No. 1. The issue, though, is that at some point, you need to see what Mendoza is going to give you, even if playing him lowers the team's floor from what Cousins is likely to give them.
I really do believe there's the makings of a good team here, and it's not impossible to think that this team could be a contender by 2028. But for 2026, Vegas is facing an uphill battle in a very tough division.
5. Tennessee Titans
If I were making this list based on how good I expect the last-place teams to be in 2026, the Tennessee Titans would sit around seventh, but the team has the advantage of playing in an AFC South where it could theoretically find a way to eke out a division crown.
The Colts are quarterbacked by a guy coming off an Achilles tear. The Texans are quarterbacked by a guy who had one of the worst postseason runs we've ever seen. The Jaguars...well, they're probably fine, but they're also the Jaguars, and the Jaguars historically always seem to find ways to lose when people think they should be good.
For the Titans to take advantage of that, though, the team needs second-year quarterback Cam Ward to take a massive step forward. Ward's rookie year was marked by inconsistency, though much of that had to do with the fact he was playing with a completely awful supporting cast. The Titans have made moves to change that, so maybe we'll see more of Ward's good moments in 2026.
4. Cleveland Browns
Don't laugh me out of the building here! The Cleveland Browns aren't going to go from worst to first, just like everyone ranked behind them won't either, but it's more likely than the teams behind them because of the boom-or-bust nature of this roster and the general uncertainty around the AFC North.
The Ravens have a new head coach. The Steelers are still quarterbacked by the corpse of Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals look improved on paper, but haven't finished better than 9-8 since 2022. Cleveland could do this.
Losing Myles Garrett hurts, but getting Jared Verse back in the trade makes it hurt a lot less. The winner of the Shedeur Sanders/Deshaun Watson quarterback battle will have an underrated offensive line in front of him and an intriguing group of weapons. There's a world where the winner of that battle turns out to be a top-20 quarterback this season, which could be enough to position the Browns for a shocker of a performance. Could is the key word here, though, because it probably won't happen.
3. New York Giants
Alright, now we're cooking, in the sense that these final three teams could all realistically win their division after finishing in last place last season.
The New York Giants had a really, really good 2026 NFL Draft, adding both Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa in the first round, then getting a huge steal with corner Colton Hood in the second round. There's also a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and if we get a healthy season from wide receivr Malik Nabers, the Giants could really end up cooking, assuming quarterback Jaxson Dart doesn't take a step back.
Winning the NFC East won't be easy, but every team in this division has flaws. Dallas is hoping its rebuilt defense actually holds up, Philly is hoping the loss to AJ Brown doesn't destroy the offense and Washington is counting on Jayden Daniels to bounce-back to his 2024 level of performance. New York needs a lot to go its way, but it's definitely a possibility.
2. Detroit Lions
The NFC North is fascinating in 2026 because you can make a very good argument for all four teams winning it. But you can also make a very strong case that the favorite should be the team that finished last in 2025.
"Last" feels relative here. I mean, the Lions were last, but they were 9-8 on the season and tied record-wise with the Vikings for last in the division, and the team was the only fourth-place team with a record over .500.
Detroit had to grapple with the loss of both its offensive and defensive coordinators, and it showed at times. But another year removed from that, the team should look at little more stable in 2026, and as long as Jared Goff doesn't regress, the talent is here to make a run at the division crown. Getting past Ben Johnson's Bears is the biggest hurdle, but the Lions scored more points and allowed fewer than Chicago last season. With the Bears playing a first-place schedule and the Lions a last-place schedule, those couple of different games could have a big impact on how this race shakes out.
1. New Orleans Saints
Finally, we have the New Orleans Saints, who might not have even finished last in the NFC South last season had the team made the decision to start Tyler Shough in Week 1 rather than sticking with Spencer Rattler for way too long.
New Orleans is going all-in on Shough, with the team signing running back Travis Etienne and drafting wide receiver Jordyn Tyson to bolster the offense. With the rest of the division not really doing a ton to improve (barring your thoughts on Tua Tagovailoa in Atlanta), New Orleans looks to have as good of a chance of winning the NFC South as anyone.
My biggest concern? Shough still has to get better. He played well last year, but he can't just play at the same level again. He has to find a way to elevate his play. For most second-year quarterbacks, you'd read that sentence and think "okay, well...yeah, duh." But this is where I bring up the age thing: Shough turns 27 years old in September. He was already an older rookie after a long, winding college career, and it's fair to wonder if he has much room for improvement left at this point or if he just is who he is. And who he is right now is a guy who can take you to a 9-8 finish, which may or may not be enough to win this division.
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