We all know the drill by now in the NFL, and the emphasis on parity.
You can generally bank on a half dozen teams who did not make the playoffs a year ago to make it this year … Which means obviously there are six teams headed for a regression as well in that regard. Everything with the structure of the league and the way revenues are shared and the salary cap are installed to continue these sorts of results.
We have no reason to believe 2026 will be much different in that regard, if at all. The AFC looks particularly deep and the NFC might be a little more top-heavy — I could argue three of the four best teams in football are in that conference — and in the end there will be stories that unfold, for better and for worse, that few would have ever predicted.
But there are a handful of teams from a year ago who we believe will be back in the postseason when this season is complete. And we would stack them in this order:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 NFC South Finish: 2nd
Carolina has been hit as hard by injuries as any team in the NFL. Handling the weight of expectations, modest as they may be winning the NFC South, can be tough. The Saints are a high variance team for us – could be way better than many think or last year’s late surge against weak opponents could be fool’s gold. Evaluators we trust lean to the Bucs, and so do we.
Todd Bowles is no strange leading teams to the playoffs, Baker Mayfield is on a mission with his contract situation and, yes, Mike Evans is gone, but we expect the defense to be much improved and Mayfield to be healthier than a year ago. I longtime NFL personnel executive who is likely to be a part of a new front office for a top 2027 head coaching candidate I know is doing a lot of work on teams with potential coaches on the hotseat, and he doesn’t think Bowles belongs on that list.
“Tampa is the best team in that division, and Todd isn’t going anywhere,” he offered.
Kansas City Chiefs
- 2025 Record: 6-11
- 2025 AFC West Finish: 3rd
The AFC West is a monster, which is why they aren’t higher on this list. But I just don’t think Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are missing the playoffs two straight years. Offensive line injuries to the Chargers have given me pause with their projections and these two individuals just know how to win games.
Now, I caution you, this isn’t going to be what it once was and the defense and special teams need to be the star, especially early as Mahomes works back from surgery. Luckily they have two of the truly elite coordinators in those aspects, both whom should be NFL head coaches by now (Dave Toub and Steve Spagnuolo). Mahomes will be fine winning ugly, but they are going to need to make a move for a playmaker to help him out.
Cincinnati Bengals
- 2025 Record: 6-11
- 2025 AFC North Finish: 3rd
The defense just needs to not be horrible and Joe Burrow healthy enough for 14 games and I like them in the AFC North. The offense should be prolific from the jump, they are the most stable and cohesive team in the division by far — which is shocking to say but undoubtedly true — and Dexter Lawrence changes the complexion of their defensive line.
Now, I know all about how little Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played together and all the time they have missed. I also know all about the slow starts to seasons. But some trends eventually get bucked and if Burrow doesn’t have to chase the pack this time just to get into the playoffs, look out.
Baltimore Ravens
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 AFC North Finish: 2nd
This is more of a 10-win team than a juggernaut to me, and the Bengals may use a favorable head-to-head schedule to win the division, but Lamar Jackson being healthy is enough to get you in the dance. Rookie head coach Jesse Minter will turn the defense around ASAP. “The Ravens 28th in sacks – that can’t happen!” my buddy Steve Mariucci, former NFL head coach and NFL analyst, exclaimed to me. “He’s going to get that fixed.”
I have concerns about the offense and the interior offensive line and kicker and tight end. But change can be good and it was time for John Harbaugh to move on and that freshness should serve Baltimore well enough.
Dallas Cowboys
- 2025 Record: 7-9-1
- 2025 NFC East Finish: 2nd
Marty Hurney, longtime NFL general manager who remains quite plugged in, thinks this team could truly compete for a Super Bowl. Owner Jerry Jones is finally spending in a big way again and he keeps threatening to make another major trade and I tend to believe him. They had an offseason that I couldn’t find many people to quibble with (“Jerry didn’t get in his own way this year, did he?” one GM commented to me, who believes their defense will be much improved).
I tend to think some old habits die hard, so I’m not going to tell you there is a deep playoff run in this group, but they are going to hang big numbers on offense and have a defense that will be equipped to play with the lead.
Detroit Lions
- 2025 Record: 9-8
- 2025 NFC North Finish: 4th
They didn’t miss by much last year. There is definitely a part of me that believes Dan Campbell will be haunted by that playoff loss in San Francisco for a long time and that was Detroit’s best chance to break its Super Bowl curse … but, again, we’re talking about the right tiebreakers to be a Wild Card here, not taking home a Lombardi.
This division is going to be wild and there are no easy outs, but this is a staff that knows how to win regular season games. Being without former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stung them a year ago but they’ve had a lot of time to figure things out by now. Injuries to the secondary could loom large but there is still a nice pool of talent in Detroit.
Add us as a preferred source on Google