After seeing Bijan Robinson net $51 million guaranteed, the Indianapolis Colts didn't wait around with Jonathan Taylor, their own star running back, to have Jahmyr Gibbs raise the price even further. On Thursday, the Colts signed Taylor to a two-year, $44 million extension with $39 million guaranteed. The deal will keep Taylor in Indianapolis through the 2028 season and locks up a core on offense with Taylor, Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce, who have all signed lucrative new deals this offseason.
If you're a Colts fan, that's more than enough reason to be excited, especially with Taylor. He's been a reliable workhorse for this offense, and was the real driving force behind the team's offensive boom last year. However, this can't be the end for Indy in this situation. Because as good as Taylor is, he's lesser when he doesn't have the right lanes opening ahead of him. And as of right now, star guard Quenton Nelson is still in need of a new contract.
Colts need to extend Quenton Nelson after Taylor's new deal
Quenton Nelson has been as advertised from the moment that the Colts selected him with the sixth overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. That's why he's already netted a then-record contract with the Colts, signing a four-year, $80 million deal at the end of his rookie pact. But now, he's entering the final year of that contract in his age-30 season, and Indianpolis hasn't been able to work out a new contract with him.
The reason behind why Nelson hasn't been extended certainly isn't his performance on the field. Over the past two seasons, the Notre Dame product has finished as the fourth-highest graded offensive guard in the NFL, according to PFF. That's not the end-all, be all of metrics, of course, but Nelson has been the tone-setter and stalwart in the middle of this offensive line. He's quite clearly one of the leaders of this offensive group.
Perhaps more importantly, though, the Colts need to keep that type of figure as a part of this offensive line when things are changing. Braden Smith just walked in free agency, which now has 2025 fourth-round pick Jalen Travis in line to start at right tackle this season. While that's the opposite side of the line from Nelson and his left guard spot, it's the position group that arguably benefits the most from overall continuity.
In truth, the Colts can't afford to let Nelson walk, especially when his performance continues to show that he's one of the best at his position still. That's especially true when the team just invested so heavily in both Taylor and Jones before him. Their performance, especially with Jones' unique play style, is directly tied to the battle in the trenches. And not keeping Nelson would compromise that battle plan for Indianapolis in a critical way.
What's more critical for the Colts is the fact that they have the money to work out a new deal with Nelson. Looking at their 2027 salary cap, they'll still have roughly $46 million in cap space going into next offseason after the Taylor deal. While they also would love to figure out extending DeForest Buckner on the defense as well, there's room to work and keep a crucial piece like Nelson from leaving.
Predicting Quenton Nelson's next contract with the Colts
In the end, the Colts and Quenton Nelson will get a new contract done before he reaches free agency. That's pretty easy to feel confident in given his importance to the organization first and foremost, but also the fact that the contract should ultimately end up being quite reasonable for both sides, even if Nelson is still at the top of the market as a top-tier guard in the NFL.
While other position groups around the league have seen their top-of-market money skyrocket in recent years, that hasn't necessarily been the case on the offensive guard market. Nelson's current deal, as mentioned, has a $20 million AAV and was signed with $61 million in practical guarantees. In the years since that contract was doled out, though, the market has only risen to Matthew Bergeron's newly minted four-year, $96 million contract with $60 million in guarantees with the Falcons. For what it's worth, Tyler Smith in Dallas signed a new deal for the same length and AAV, but with $78.87 million in guarantees.
All told, that likely leaves the Colts and Nelson looking at something along the lines of a new contract at four years, $98 million and roughly $80 million in guarantees, likely with the bulk of those guarantees being frontloaded in the contract as he'd be 34 years old at the end of the deal, leaving the Colts an avenue to protect themselves from injury and potential decline with age.
That's not a negligible deal, obviously, but the Colts have the financial flexibility to make it happen. More importantly, they can't miss the forest for the trees in this situation. Daniel Jones played well last season, so it was reasonable to pay him. Jonathan Taylor has been a star, so it made sense to pay him. But both of those huge pieces become less valuable if Nelson isn't paving the way for them.
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