The weak link for the Patriots, Bills, Jets and Dolphins that will cost them the AFC East

The AFC East is weird. The Patriots ran the jawn for 20-ish years until Josh Allen and the Bills took over from 2020 to 2024. In 2025, the Patriots caught lightning and took it back with an MVP-caliber season from Drake Maye and a cheesecake schedule … While the Dolphins and the Jets farted around near the bottom of the league.

In reality, the division is going to belong to New England or Buffalo in 2026, while Miami and New York figure out the future. For those future-looking teams we’re not necessarily talking about weak links who could cost them the 2026 season exclusively; it’s how these guys could affect the team in the future. 

Now, the quarterback is the most important position in professional sports, and it’d be easy to say that they are a weak link that could cost each team their season. Just naming four quarterbacks is boring, so I’m not going to do that. 

We’re going to be looking at other spots on the field. For the two real contenders in this division, we’re looking in the trenches, and for the two rebuilding teams, we’re going to be looking on the defense. 

New England Patriots: Will Campbell, Left Tackle

We saw what happens when the New England Patriots’ offensive line breaks: Drake Maye gets sacked a record-breaking 21 times in a single postseason. The Patriots, and Will Campbell specifically, cannot pick up where they left off. 

The unfortunately lucky thing for the Patriots is that there’s a really good chance that Campbell’s terrible postseason showing was because he had a bum knee. He didn’t need surgery on it, and he’s been rehabbing it during the offseason. 

The problem is that if you make it to the Super Bowl, you have a shorter offseason. Last year, the Eagles’ offensive line was the poster child for not recovering during the short offseason: Jordan Mailata looked wiped, Landon Dickerson was dealing with a bad back and a knee, and Cam Jurgens had a bad back that wrecked his season from the get-go.

There’s hope for Campbell, but it’s not a ‘Well, he can just get healthy and come back at 100% in August’ type of thing. 

But he’s going to need to get there, because the Patriots are kind of depending on him. They got Caleb Lomu in the first round of the draft, but he’s more of a developmental guy rather than a day-one starter. 

On top of that, they got Alijah Vera-Tucker (left guard) in free agency, but he’s a big-time injury-prone guy. The Jets drafted him 14th overall in 2021, but he’s only played in 43 of 85 games. That includes a 2022 season that ended with a torn triceps, a 2023 season that ended with a popped Achilles, and a 2025 season that ended (in practice before the season started) with another torn triceps. 

Do you think he’s going to miraculously stay healthy for a whole season? I don’t. If/when he’s out, Campbell is going to be playing next to a backup.

My point is that Campbell can either be a pillar of the offensive line, or he can be just another domino that falls in a crumbling season. 

Buffalo Bills: Whoever the left guard is

Josh Allen rocks, but the rockstar of Buffalo Bills' offense has been their offensive line. Fortunately for them, they re-signed Connor McGovern in free agency. Unfortunately for them, they let David Edwards walk.

He was their left guard for the past two seasons, and while he never got any praise via Pro Bowls or All-Pros, he was still an absolute rock on the interior.  

They’ve got a battle for that starting spot. We’re looking at Alec Anderson and Austin Corbett as the two cats who are most likely to win. The former has been a practice squad (and spot starter) for them over the past two years, while the latter is an eight-year vet with crazy amounts of experience. 

Neither of them is going to come into the season and play at David Edwards’ level. At some point during the season, one of them is going to need to get to that spot, and probably even farther. If they don’t, Allen’s going to be getting a decent amount of pressure in his face, and that’s going to be an issue.  

He’s historically been a good quarterback under pressure, but it was kind of gross last season. Of the quarterbacks with the five best passer ratings under pressure, he had the worst completion per drop-back percentage … by kind of a lot. 

What that means is that a whole bunch of his dropbacks ended in incompletions, sacks, and scrambles. For the Bills’ passing game to be back at the lethal level that we’re used to seeing, he simply cannot be living in a place where 34% of his dropbacks under pressure don’t end in the ball moving downfield. 

If that pathetically low number is going to get higher, it’s going to mean Joe Brady runs a better scheme to get guys open, and that pass catching group does better at creating space … But that all starts with the offensive line, and its newcomer, doing better at limiting the effective pressures.  

Miami Dolphins: Chop Robinson, DE

The Miami Dolphins don’t have anything going for them this year, and that’s a good thing. This year is about evaluating the talent that they have and starting a rebuild that was spurred by a $99 million cap hit they took when they released Tua Tagovailoa.

The last time they won the AFC East was in 2000 … So it’s been a hot minute. If they are going to get back on track, it sure isn’t going to be this year, but there’s a chance that they could do it in the near-ish future. 

If that’s going to happen, they need to see some of their young guys develop. Specifically, Chop Robinson, the EDGE they picked in the first round of the 2024 draft. 

He hasn’t played up to that pick yet. In the two seasons he’s played, he’s had 10 total sacks (six in 2024, four in 2025), doesn’t generate a whole lot of pressure, doesn’t really touch the quarterback, and he’s not amazing at making plays against the run. 

If the Dolphins are going to be competitive, now or in the future, they’re going to need their young guys to turn into young dudes. Chop’s not a dude yet, and they need to know if he will be a dude. Young dudes are cheap, and a fifth-year-option-worthy season is going to go a long way in making that defense cheap … and good. 

New York Jets: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S

The New York Jets’ defensive backfield is on the verge of being hot garbage. The only person who’s stopping that from happening is Minkah Fitzpatrick … who they traded for back in March … which I totally forgot happened. 

Their other safety is Andre Cisco, who is solid on a good day. Their two outside corners will be Brandon Stephens and Nashon Wright. The latter got a career-high five interceptions with the Bears last year (which is great for a team that didn’t have a single interception last season), but he’s a gambler … and most of the time he lost those gambles.

The Jets desperately need Minkah to hold that defensive backfield down, which is a horrifying proposition. The dude is only 29 years old, but he’s been in the league since 2018, and he’s played over 7,500 snaps in the NFL.

The dude has played a lot of football. It seems like his best football is behind him, but that doesn’t mean that he’s burned toast. His peak was incredibly high, so if he plays at half that, he’d still be playing at an incredibly high level.

The problem is that you’re hoping that he doesn’t fall off. When you’re talking about that much wear and tear, you’re playing with fire. In a wildly low-caliber defensive backfield made of kindling, that fire will burn a season to the ground. 

The Jets would probably appreciate that fire in the long run because it’d lead to an Arch Manning-filled future, but they also gave him two seasons of guaranteed money ($20 million), so it’d be rough for a hot minute. 

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