The NFL season might as well skip to the NFC and AFC Championship Games because the data already knows which teams are going to vie for a berth in Super Bowl LXI. Over the last 10 editions, the winner of the Lombardi Trophy featured a Top 11 offense and Top 13 defense.
According to For The Numbers Fantasy Football analyst Aaron Schatz's preseason projections, there are only four teams that meet that criteria entering the campaign in terms of DVOA or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Let's evaluate each of them and how likely it is they walk away from Los Angeles with their color confetti raining down.
Los Angeles Rams
- Projected Off. DVOA: 1st
- Projected Def. DVOA: 3rd
It would be a repeat of Super Bowl LVI should the Los Angeles Rams win the whole thing in their home stadium again. Looking at their stacked roster, it's hard to bet against that outcome. Los Angeles features the No. 1 projected offense and the No. 3 projected defense, per Schatz. League MVP Matthew Stafford returns to dare Father Time to prevent him from winning another ring and his weaponry makes it difficult to believe Stafford will lose that battle. Wide receivers Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and tight end Colby Parkinson will force defenders to decide which side of the field to cover most and any one of them can make that decision regrettable. Injuries will determine whether the Rams can consistently dominate the NFC.
Turning to that dreaded defense — and by dreaded, it's opponents who are dreading facing it — the mid-offseason trade for last year's Defensive Player of the Year in Myles Garrett was the definition of a "win now" move. His single-season record-breaking 23 sacks prove the 30-year-old is still in the upswing of his Hall of Fame trajectory career. Now add former Defensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl champion pass rusher Aaron Donald into the mix. His return after two years of retirement should have Rams fans ecstatic, but he's going to need time to ramp back up to full speed. If he's still got gas in the tank, it's championship or bust for this franchise.
Seattle Seahawks
- Projected Off. DVOA: 6th
- Projected Def. DVOA: 1st
Going back to back is incredibly hard to do in the NFL. It's only happened nine times, with the last occurring in 2024 for the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Seattle Seahawks are going to do it, they're going to have to step up their game from an already admirable campaign last year. Schatz projects them to have the No. 6 offense in the league and, surprisingly, the top defense. Quarterback Sam Darnold put two consecutive fantastic seasons together but both times he was being asked to prove his worth. Having reached the football mountain top, can he keep improving with top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba or will the absence of Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III prove to be the missing link?
On the defensive side, Seattle rebuilt its dominant secondary after losing Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant in free agency. Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, Nick Emmanwori and Julian Love will lead the way against opposing receivers after combining for four interceptions last year. Passers and rushers will find themselves under siege as well from big bodies like Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy and Demarcus Lawrence smashing across the line of scrimmage. There's a lot of talent to make up for, but it's certainly a doable challenge for Seattle in a repeat quest.
Denver Broncos
- Projected Off. DVOA: 10th
- Projected Def. DVOA: 5th
The Denver Broncos were probably going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX until quarterback Bo Nix injured his ankle at the very end of the Divisional Round. Now that he's healthy (and presumably stays that way), Denver looks the part of a potential champion. Nix finished eighth in passing yards (3,931) and tied for ninth in touchdowns (25) last year and should see those totals improve with the addition of wideout Jalyn Waddle to his belt. Schatz predicts it'll be enough for the Broncos to have the 10th best offense in the league.
On the defensive side, linebacker Nik Bonitto, cornerback Pat Surtain II and nickelback Ja'Quan McMillan will feature as the main leaders in what will be a pivotal unit for Denver. Schatz believes they'll make Denver the No. 5 defense leaguewide, which will be crucial to returning to the AFC title game to finish what it started last year. The Broncos could be the literal dark horses for a Super Bowl run this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Projected Off. DVOA: 11th
- Projected Def. DVOA: 11th
The Kansas City Chiefs never seem to be out of the equation so long as QB Patrick Mahomes is available and healthy. Last year was the first time Kansas City was truly out of it, and that was 100 percent because Mahomes suffered a season-ending injury (okay, the team was pretty mid too). Mahomes is back this year and expected to be ready Week 1, so teams in the AFC better watch their backs (again). Schatz believes the team will have the No. 11 offense and defense this year, which lands the Chiefs with a rather average chance of reaching Los Angeles.
Adding running back Kenneth Walker III bolsters a rushing attack that was practically nonexistent in 2025 and it give Mahomes a little bit of a breather from having to scramble so much. The uncertainty surrounding wideouts Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy tempers expectations slightly, especially with tight end Travis Kelce in his swan song. The Chiefs' typically dominant defense appears to be on the verge of aging out, with veterans like George Karlaftis, Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed potentially looking to youngsters like Nick Bolton and rookie Mansoor Delane to pick up the slack. This could (actually) be Kansas City's last decent shot at being an automatic contender.
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