Ahh, the offseason, where (almost) every NFL team is convinced that the next season is its year. That will, of course, prove to be untrue, since only one team can lift the Lombardi. Some of these teams with high expectations will wind up getting close, but others won't even make it to the postseason.
Who are those teams that will miss out on the postseason despite high expectations? These four seem like the best bets to miss out in 2026.
San Francisco 49ers
The NFC West was extremely good last season, with three of its teams making the postseason. That seems to be most people's expectations again in 2026, but let's slow down here: a division getting three teams in is hard enough, but to do it in back-to-back years? That seems really difficult. And if one of the three misses, the San Francisco 49ers are the obvious choice.
One issue that could derail San Fran: its reliance on a group of aging skill position players to support a quarterback who is in that "good, but not great" tier of players. The team will need Mike Evans, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey to all remain at the top of their game, and that's hard to depend on at this point. McCaffrey feels like he's bound to hit that running back wall at some point. KIttle seems to get more banged up each year. Evans just had the worst year of his NFL career and is now trying to work into a new system.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks went 2-1 against the 49ers last season, and the Rams have pushed their chips all in on a title run, including making a big move for Myles Garrett, arguably the game's best defensive player. The 49ers haven't just sat still, but have they done enough to keep up with the rest of the division?
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers made the postseason as a wild-card team last season, but that was aided by the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions struggling a bit. The Vikings now have a better quarterback than they had last season after adding Kyler Murray, while the Lions get to play a last-place schedule, which should aid in the team bouncing back. Factor in that the Bears are on the upswing and won the division with relative ease last season, and you get a potentially rough scenario for the Packers.
One big concern for the Packers is that we aren't sure what the Micah Parsons injury situation winds up looking like. Parsons, the prized acquisition for the Packers last season, tore his ACL in December and looks like he could miss a sizable chunk of the 2026 season. Without him out there to rush the passer, the Packers defense won't be quite at the level it likely needs to be.
Stagnation on offense might be an issue as well. Romeo Doubs is gone, and the team didn't bring a replacement in. It also didn't bring in new players at any offensive skill position. Essentially, Green Bay is running back an offense that's good, but maybe not great; in 2025, the Packers finished 16th in points scored and 15th in total yards. The team is really counting on Jordan Love's continued development, which definitely leads to some potential danger if he doesn't continue improving at the same trajectory.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers hired Mike McCarthy. They brought back Aaron Rodgers for one final ride. They added Michael Pittman Jr. at wide receiver to give Rodgers a better weapon to work with for what's set to be his final NFL season.
But the Steelers barely made the playoffs in 2025. The team won the AFC North, but only at 10-7, and only because both the Ravens and Bengals struggled in ways that are atypical for those franchises. There's no reason to think both won't be much improved in 2026, especially Cincinnati, which put a lot of work into improving its defense this offseason.
And then there's Rodgers, who is another year older. He hasn't been himself since the torn Achilles in New York, and he's coming off of a 2025 season in which his arm strength became a weakness.
Stat | Value | Rank Among QBs |
|---|---|---|
Yards Per Attempt | 6.7 | 29th |
Air Yards Per Attempt | 6.1 | 37th |
Deep Ball Completion Percentage | 33.3% | 22nd |
Rodgers isn't going to get better at this age. Sure, he's still accurate in short-yardage situations, but what happens when Pittsburgh needs him to drive the ball down the field? Is he capable of doing that at this point? Rodgers might have been Pittsburgh's best option at quarterback if the team wanted to make a playoff run, but that really says more about how bad the other options were, and it doesn't at all mean a playoff spot is a lock.
New Orleans Saints
Last year, the Carolina Panthers won a pretty non-competitive NFC South, but the New Orleans Saints were coming on strong late. If the team had started Tyler Shough over Spencer Rattler from the start of the season, it might very well have been New Orleans playing in the postseason. Heading into 2026, the Saints look positioned to win the NFC South, especially after adding wide receiver Jordyn Tyson in the first round of the NFL Draft. But...what if they don't?
Yes, the Saints look like the best team on paper, but they did finish last in the division last season and they're relying on Tyler Shough to be the real deal. Everyone seems convinced that's the case, but there should at least be a little bit of skepticism there.
Shough played well in 2025, going 5-4 as the Saints starter and completing 67.6 percent of his passes. He transformed the Saints offense after replacing Rattler, and he has two really good weapons in Tyson and Chris Olave. However, there should be concerns about the fact that he ranked 35th among quarterbacks in deep ball completion percentage and 31st in completion percentage when pressured. If opposing defenses can get to him and force him to make quick decisions, Shough's second NFL season might not reach the level needed for the Saints to win the NFC South.
Another thing that won't help? Atlanta signing Tua Tagovailoa. The Falcons have a very good offense that just lacked the right quarterback to make things actually work. Assuming Tagovailoa is healthy, he's an upgrade over Michael Penix Jr., and should be about at the level Kirk Cousins was. Atlanta was in the same situation as New Orleans last year as far as naming the wrong initial starter; if Cousins had started all season, I'm confident the Falcons win that division, and that would have been true even if the Saints had also named Shough its Week 1 starter.
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