What Tua Tagovailoa losing the Falcons QB job means for Atlanta, Mike McDaniel and the Chargers

With Michael Penix Jr. officially cleared for 11-on-11, full-contact drills, it seems the Atlanta Falcons are barreling toward a decision at quarterback. While the initial expectation was that Tua Tagovailoa would start Week 1 and potentially cede the job to Penix down the road, the former's performance both in practice and the preseason made it "impossible" to name him starter, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

While no official decision has been made, Penix has a chance to suit up for Atlanta's final preseason bout against the Dolphins and stake him claim on the starting job. And really, that's the best-case scenario for Atlanta. Penix is a former top-10 pick whom the franchise is invested in. If he can unseat Tagovailoa and really earn the job, the Falcons' future — both immediate and long term — feels a bit less bleak.

Why the Falcons should want Michael Penix Jr. over Tua Tagovailoa as QB1

Back in 2024, the Falcons paid Kirk Cousins nine figures to be their long-awaited "solution" at quarterback — then, mere weeks later, selected Michael Penix with the No. 8 overall draft pick. That led to discord in the locker room and perhaps made Cousins' eventual downfall a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts, but it was an indication of how fervently the Falcons brass believed in Penix at the time.

This is a new Falcons front office and coaching staff, but Penix is going into year three as a coveted first-round investment. To bench him in favor of Tua Tagovailoa, who was benched in favor of a seventh-round pick last season in Miami, would not send the ideal signals. Granted, Penix has not done enough to make his QB1 claim absolute, and the injury history is quite worrisome. But he's still a youthful QB with upside, whereas Tagovailoa has graduated to has-been status, with a laughable postseason track record that would instantly nuke any competitive aspirations in the Atlanta fanbase.

Penix made nine starts last season before the torn ACL, completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards (220.2 per game), nine touchdowns and three interceptions. While Penix is not without his shortcomings — particularly his comfort level and accuracy throwing over the middle — he broadly kept critical errors to a minimum. His 1.1 percent interception rate was the best in the NFL, and he only fumbled four times. Tagovailoa fumbled eight times, with 15 interceptions, in 14 starts for the Dolphins.

There is drastically more upside to this Falcons season with Penix under center. He will still need to earn the job and keep the job, but Penix's arm talent was his calling card in college. That ability to stretch a defense and find receivers in stride, sprinting up the sideline, is something Tagovailoa cannot replicate. The latter is so reliant on timing and his receivers' ability to both get open quickly and generate yards after the catch. Drake London and Jahan Dotson are not Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. London is particular operates more in traffic, winning with catch radius and physicality, not pure speed. Tagovailoa was never going to look good without two peak speedsters lined up wide and Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

Speaking of which...

Chargers should feel really good about Mike McDaniel

Remember when Tagovailoa — the same mistake-prone, dink-and-dunk quarterback who just lost a quarterback battle to someone who hasn't suited up all summer due to injury — led the NFL in touchdown percentage (2022), total passing yards (2023) and completion percentage (2024) in a three-year span. He made a Pro Bowl appearance and finished top-10 in MVP voting once, all while Miami competed with the likes of Buffalo atop the AFC East standings.

That was in large part due to Mike McDaniel, who, after all these years and plenty of turbulence in Miami, maintains his reputation as one of the brightest and most innovative offensive minds in the sport. The league has caught up to McDaniel on some level, and Miami notably fell off a cliff when injuries took root, both at QB and in the receiver room. But when the Dolphins were healthy, they were a borderline regular-season juggernaut, consistently boat-racing teams in the regular season.

McDaniel was oustered in Miami this summer and settled for the offensive coordinator gig in Los Angeles. That could be the absolute best possible career move. Not only does it allow McDaniel to focus on his strengths as a playcaller, but he's now teaming up with Justin Herbert. If Tagovailoa was a system QB, Herbert is the ultimate version of that. He has seamlessly adjusted his style and approach to different coordinators and personnel groups over the years, but he is one of the most innately talented quarterbacks in the NFL.

Herbert can deliver challenging throws deep, into traffic and on the move — throws Tagovailoa would never dream of making. The Chargers don't have their versions of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle necessarily, but Ladd McConkey is a brilliant route-runner who should blossom under McDaniel's exacting supervision. Meanwhile, it may finally be time to purchase stock in Quentin Johnston, whose breakneck speed could break things open for L.A. with Herbert and an O.C. who will actually embrace his quarterback's full repertoire.

The Chargers need to exorcise their own postseason demons, something McDaniel can relate to. But this is an immensely promising roster on paper, and McDaniel is a total game-changer taking over the offense. No more Greg Roman, play-it-safe shenanigans. This is McDaniel's first experience in a major role with a proper superstar under center. Los Angeles should not be overlooked.

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