Spooky season is upon us, and the NFL world feels like it is going to the Upside Down (apologies to Stranger Things fans if this is too soon). Two preseason potential Super Bowl contenders, the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers, are a combined 0-8, while the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns are 6-2 entering Week 5.
We are just about a quarter of the way through the season, which means it's starting to get deep enough into the campaign that we can't just write off some of these early performances as small sample size randomness. Here’s who is earning our trust, who still has something to prove and what to watch next. Welcome to the latest edition of the NFL Skinny.
Brock Purdy gives the injury-hit 49ers a reason to believe
- Trust level: Buying in
Another week saw another impressive win for the 49ers, who took down the Denver Broncos 24-14 to improve to 4-0 on the year. San Francisco's run is quite impressive as their injury list is quite lengthy with key contributors like Alfred Collins, Nick Bosa, Ricky Pearsall, Kyle Juszszcyk, Christian Kirk and Mykel Williams either out for the year or suffering injuries early in the campaign.
The receiving room has been particularly decimated, leaving George Kittle and the returning Deebo Samuel as Brock Purdy's top weapons. He has put up MVP-caliber numbers thus far by throwing for 1,007 yards with 11 touchdowns against just one interception in four games. The defense has also stepped up to cover their missing skill-position players, ranking seventh in the league by allowing just over 308 yards per game and ranking third in the league by allowing only 16 points per game.
With the Rams and Seahawks showing early season vulnerability, there is a chance here for the 49ers to give themselves a significant cushion in the rugged NFC West. A Week 1 victory over Los Angeles in Melbourne was a great start but if they can topple Seattle at Lumen Field on Sunday they would be in fantastic position, holding at least a two-game lead over their biggest rivals with a head-to-head victory over each.
The Browns are winning, but their margin for error is thin
- Trust level: Not sold yet
If it were up to Browns' fans, we would stop the count now as they are tied with the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC North following a near-walkoff win against the Steelers on Thursday night. It is incredible to see Cleveland fans starting to cheer for Deshaun Watson, who was getting booed in preseason games, but Todd Monken has done a good job getting the most out of the beleaguered veteran to keep the Browns moving in the right direction.
All three of Cleveland's wins have come by four points or less, which could be a sign of a team building character through tough moments or a potential pretender that is getting lucky. Oddsmakers are clearly leaning towards the latter, installing the Browns as road underdogs against a 1-3 Jets team that got run off the field in Chicago on Sunday. So we'll see if Cleveland is up to the challenge of proving their doubters wrong yet again.
Kirk Cousins is making the Raiders worth taking seriously
- Trust level: Cautiously buying
We went in depth about the Raiders' Week 4 performance in Sunday's Winners and Losers column, but there is a lot to like here with Klint Kubiak's team. The steady play of veteran placeholder Kirk Cousins, who has tossed 11 touchdowns against just four interceptions so far, has helped Las Vegas both win and buy time for top overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza to gain valuable wisdom.
There is a lot to like here with the Raiders, who are finding ways to score points despite missing Brock Bowers for the first two games of the season, Ashton Jeanty averaging only 3.4 yards per carry and the receiving room being perhaps the most anonymous in the league. Sunday's trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, who are fresh off a big win in Buffalo, should be an intriguing test for Las Vegas as they play a tough opponent in the early window.
The Lions’ defense makes Detroit hard to trust
- Trust level: Losing confidence
The Lions have a massive problem, as their offense is good enough to win games but their defense can't stop anyone right now. Sunday night saw Detroit's defense get shredded by Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan, who connected 14 times for 192 yards and two scores in a 32-26 victory for the Panthers.
Kelvin Sheppard's unit is dead last in the NFL in yards per game, allowing over 423 per game, and barely avoided the cellar by allowing 31.8 points per game, which they held before New Orleans assumed it after getting shredded on Monday night by Atlanta. NBC's Cris Collinsworth pointed out some of the difficulties the Lions have had defending the pass on the telecast, noting that their corners don't like to play zone but aren't skilled enough to win man-to-man matchups, which is a big issue that needs to be addressed before the unit puts them in too deep a hole to dig out of.
Daniel Jones is giving the Colts familiar reasons to worry
- Trust level: Reason for doubt
The Colts managed to beat Washington in London on Sunday but did not receive a sterling effort from Daniel Jones, who completed just 19-of-34 passes for 143 yards and a pick in the victory. The Athletic's Mike Sando broke down Jones' performance over the past year and came to the conclusion that Jones has reverted back to his bad form at the end of his Giants' tenure, which is not a good sign considering Indianapolis' hefty investment in him this offseason.
A win is a win though and Indianapolis is just a game back in the AFC South, but they won't make much progress if they're getting the Giants' version of Jones the rest of the way. Losing top weapons like Alec Pierce hasn't helped but Jones is in his eighth year in the league, which should be enough experience for him to find a way to survive even if his setup isn't completely optimalized.
Fantasy football pickups to cover Week 5’s biggest injuries
- Trust level: Cousins is a credible injury replacement, while the other waiver options depend on opportunity
It was a good week to have a big-play receiver anchor your lineup. We've already covered McMillan's exploits here, but CeeDee Lamb (17 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown), Nico Collins (7-118-2) Tee Higgins (11-157) and the returning Puka Nacua (9-125 with a rushing touchdown) went bananas to help their fantasy managers to victory.
The waiver wire will again be defined by injury replacements as fantasy players figure to be scrambling to replace Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase and Rashee Rice as all figure to miss Week 5 and potentially beyond. Cousins seems like a worthy stop-gap at quarterback while the likes of Will Shipley (Barkley's backup in Philadelphia), Mike Gesicki and Keon Coleman look like good adds. Another name to watch here is free agent Tyreek Hill, who could return to the Chiefs after Kansas City lost Rice and Tyquan Thornton to injuries in their win over the Raiders.
The undefeated run of yours truly came to an end after a tight loss to Chris Landers due in part to a tactical error of wanting to see if Collins could survive a full game. Collins got 30.8 on the bench for Fourth Quarter Mike while starter Christian Watson picked up only 7.70, a clear difference maker in a loss by less than 4 fantasy points.
While a four-point loss was enough to maintain first place, it wasn't even the closest matchup of the week. That honor belonged to a dramatic matchup where Adam Fromal got on the board with a win over Brad Berreman by 0.22 fantasy points, which could lead to some drama as it is in the range of results that could get flipped by a stat correction.
This week sees your intrepid author take on Justin Carter, who is 2-2 and holding the sixth spot in the standings. A loss also means a name change is coming for 4th Quarter Mike, which will be covered in the fantasy corner next week.
Week 4 MVP and LVP highlight CeeDee Lamb’s brilliance and officiating failures
MVP: CeeDee Lamb
McMillan and Bijan Robinson made strong pushes for this spot but the MVP of the week is Lamb, who was an unstoppable force against a very capable Texans' defense. The heroics that Lamb had on the Cowboys' final drive, when he caught four passes for 44 yards and the game-winning touchdown, sealed the deal here.
LVP: The Officials
It was not a good week for the referees, who had their usual litany of bad calls along with some ugly incidents where line judge Ted Seeman appeared to use profanity towards Cardinals' tight end Trey McBride while referee Adrian Hill acted aggressively towards Vikings' linebacker Eric Wilson, who was inadvertently blocked into Hill and tried to offer him assistance getting up.
The NFL acted swiftly in both cases, suspending Seeman for two games and Hill for one for their unprofessional behavior towards players. While missed calls are an unfortunate part of the human experience, seeing referees make games about themselves is not what any fan signed up for.
Week 5 games that will test the NFL’s early contenders
- Trust test: Can the 49ers handle Seattle and the Rams build on their rebound?
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) at New England Patriots (2-2)
We mentioned this game earlier in the Raiders' commentary but the intrigue of this matchup lies in what it says about both teams. Las Vegas is flying East and playing a game in the early window off a tight loss to the Chiefs while New England will have to avoid a letdown after a huge victory over the Bills that may have salvaged their season.
San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
The NFL moved Bears-Packers up to 1:00 to give more audiences access to this NFC West heavyweight fight and it was the correct call. Seattle's running backs are a mess, which could lead recent practice squad addition Joe Mixon getting promoted for this game, while the Dark Side defense will get their crack at slowing down Purdy's MVP campaign to claim first place in the division.
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
Monday night's matchup could be a potential Super Bowl preview as the Bills fly out West to take on the Rams, who bought their season some time with a pivotal road win in Philadelphia on Sunday. Two injuries that could impact this game involve Bills' receiver D.J. Moore, who left Week 4's loss with a shoulder injury, and Rams' defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who sat out of Week 4 with back soreness.
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