The Cleveland Browns were boat-raced by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. It felt like the start of another miserable season in The Land, where misery is the standard expectation. Well, lo and behold, Cleveland has since pulled off an improbable three-game win streak, capped by a 27-24 win over division rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football. For now, the Browns lead the hyper-competitive AFC North.
The odds are still against Cleveland to win the division outright, but there's certainly a path if Todd Monken can keep unlocking this version of Deshaun Watson, with this caliber of defense. So, in honor of the upstart Browns and their improbable emergence, let's pick a sleeper to win every NFL division.
AFC East: New York Jets
The Buffalo Bills are clear frontrunners to win this division and the New England Patriots, despite their 1-2 start, are the logical next team up — fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, with plenty of time for Drake Maye to remember how to play the quarterback position.
That said, only one AFC East team is top-13 in both offensive and defensive estimated points added (EPA) per play: the New York Jets. That's just one catch-all in an ocean of conflicting stats and perspectives, but it says something about how balanced the Jets are, despite narrow losses against Green Bay and Detroit.
Geno Smith was horrific last season in Las Vegas, but he looks much more like himself in East Rutherford, staying virtually untouched in the pocket while he layers deftly accurate passes at every level. The defense under Aaron Glenn has finally awakened — and there's real talent up and down the roster. It's easy to penalize the Jets based on organizational reputation and recent history, but what if this team is actually different?
AFC North: Cleveland Browns
The Browns currently lead the division but still qualify as a sleeper. Do we really trust Deshaun Watson? Is the defense good enough without Myles Garrett to truly go the distance? All valid questions. Cleveland has won three games by four points or fewer, against three teams without much sauce in Tampa Bay, Carolina and Pittsburgh. There is a lot left to prove.
That said, Todd Monken deserves significant credit. What felt like the most uninspiring coaching hire of the offseason has quickly turned into a galvanizing force. He has restored confidence in an oft-injured, little-loved quarterback while clearly commanding the locker room in a way Kevin Stefanski never quite could. Even without Garrett, this Browns defense is deep, talented and sharp. There's a path here; the Baltimore Ravens are probably the team to beat.
AFC South: Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are 0-3 and the vibes couldn't be much worse. Historically, it's difficult for 0-3 teams to crack the playoffs, much less win their division. The first-place Jaguars are a well-oiled machine and deserve respect as the frontrunner, but if it's not them, Houston still feels like the logical next-best team compared to Indianapolis or Tennessee.
The Texans were the best defensive team in the AFC a year ago. It's early enough in the season to believe Houston can get back to that level with a few tweaks. Their defensive personnel remains elite on paper. Sometimes a slow start is nothing more.
It's harder to trust the Texans offense, especially given C.J. Stroud's poor track record in games of consequence, but it's not like Houston has failed to surround him with viable playmakers. Nico Collins, David Montgomery, Dalton Schultz — Houston has what it takes, but the turnaround needs to happen sooner than later.
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs meet in a Week 4 battle of unbeatens. It feels disingenuous to describe the Denver Broncos as "sleepers" a year removed from winning 14 games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are right back in contention with an improved offensive setup around Patrick Mahomes. It's the Raiders, despite an impressive 3-0 start, that nobody fully trusts — yet.
A win over Kansas City on Sunday would go a long way toward legitimizing the Raiders as a contender. This roster has improved tenfold compared to last season, especially when it comes to the all-important offensive line. Kirk Cousins is slinging the football with vintage poise and accuracy, while Klint Kubiak's playbook — the same playbook that won a Super Bowl in Seattle earlier this year — is clearly a smash hit.
The Raiders are probably better than their doubters realize, but a weak early schedule makes it hard to fully buy in. The real test is here and now.
NFC East: Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders put up 33 points against the top-ranked Seahawks defense in Week 3, becoming the first team to dethrone the champs since early last season. The Commanders played the Eagles close in Week 1, too. Consensus points to the high-octane Dallas Cowboys as the biggest threat to Philadelphia, but it's hard to trust the Cowboys defense. Even with the Joey Porter Jr. trade, Dallas might be the worst defense in the NFL again, or something close to it.
Washington has its own flaws to iron out and health (particularly at quarterback) is a huge swing factor. If Jayden Daniels can return by Week 5, however, there's a path. Daniels was electric as a rookie and sidetracked by injuries in year two. There was a time not so long ago when he was hyped as a future MVP candidate. Whether or not he can achieve such heights again remains to be seen, but Washington has improved the roster around him considerably. He has a real second pass-catcher in Stefon Diggs to complement Terry McLaurin, for one. Meanwhile, the Commanders defense under Dan Quinn is consistently passable. There's a world in which the Cowboys can't defend, the Eagles can't score and Washington swoops out of the shadows to win the NFC East.
NFC North: Chicago Bears
The NFC North once again has four real teams, all with a chance to go the distance. The vibes around the Green Bay Packers are withering at the moment and it's hard to trust that defense. In reality, the true "sleeper" might be the only undefeated team left in the division. The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 behind the brute force of Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense, but it's unclear if folks truly believe in the Vikings offense — which feels ironic for a Kevin O'Connell-coached football team.
But let's say Minnesota has proven itself. The Detroit Lions missed the playoffs last year, but that roster was always much too talented for another noncompetitive campaign. That leaves the Chicago Bears, whose rousing offensive success last season was undercut by impossible luck and a leaky defense. The Bears defense is still leaky, but Ben Johnson is simply a level above the competition when it comes to offensive play-calling right now. Case Keenum, more than three years removed from his last previous start, carved up a stout Eagles defense on Monday Night Football. The Bears are frequently playing chess while their opponents play checkers.
Once Caleb Williams returns, who's to say the Bears won't steam-roll opponents in classic country western style? It's easy to write off Chicago as "too flawed" for a deep run, but winning the division and outdancing an elite defense or two in the postseason feels fully achievable.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South begs the question: What if every team in the division is a sleeper?
Not a single team is currently .500 or better. The Carolina Panthers are the reigning division champs (with a sub-.500 record) so we can give them the benefit of the doubt. Personally, the Saints are the most impressive NFC South team to date. Tampa has the best recent track record here, but the Baker Mayfield injury after an 0-3 start means we can probably rule out a postseason run for the Buccaneers.
That leaves the Atlanta Falcons as the nominal "sleepers," just because everyone was ready to stick in a fork in 'em after two brutal weeks of Cooper Rush quarterbacking to open the campaign. Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3, however, and immediately tore up an admittedly weak Packers defense, with Bijan Robinson and Drake London both exploding for 194-plus yards.
The Falcons are probably the most purely talented team in the division. If Penix takes the year-three leap he (and Atlanta) so desperately needs, the Falcons are more than capable of securing home-field advantage for round one of the playoffs.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
The NFC West, on the other hand, houses arguably the three best teams in the NFC. By default, the "sleeper" at this point is probably the 1-2 Los Angeles Rams, who opened the campaign with a sleep-deprived loss in Australia and are now dealing with costly injuries (starting, of course, with prized offseason addition Myles Garrett).
Despite their record, L.A. has lost to two elite teams (San Francisco and Denver) and this is still the most talented roster in the NFL on paper. Age and durability could hold L.A. back at the end of the day, while sharing a division with the 49ers and Seahawks is an unlucky draw, but there's still a world in which the Rams reel off 10 straight wins and end up catapulting to the No. 1 overall seed. Matthew Stafford remains elite, despite his age, while the Rams defense will only get better once Aaron Donald gets up to speed and Garrett returns from injury.
Add us as a preferred source on Google