Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The expanded World Cup now features 12 groups, sending both the winners and runners-up to the knockout stages.
- Eight additional teams will advance through a new third-place tiebreaker system, including points, goal differential, and fair play points.
- The US has already secured top spot in Group D, while Paraguay and Australia battle for second place with a draw putting both into the third-place pool.
We are through two match days in group play at the World Cup and closing in on solidifying the field of teams advancing to the knockout stages. The expansion to 48 teams at this year's tournament led FIFA to create an additional knockout game in the Round of 32 to ensure more teams advance beyond group play.
With 12 groups, both the winners and runners up will advance to the knockouts, which lines up nicely with tradition. Finding 32 teams means that eight more sides need to qualify for the knockouts, meaning eight groups will send three teams through to the next phase of the tournament.
We haven't seen third place sides reach the World Cup knockout stages since, ironically, the last time the United States hosted the tournament. The 1994 World Cup marked the last time that the top third place teams advanced beyond group play, which was also the last edition of the tournament to feature 24 teams before the expansion to 32 in 1998.
How FIFA will sort out the tiebreakers for third place teams at the World Cup
FIFA has officially updated its tiebreaker policy ahead of the tournament, and it has set up the following parameters to break the ties between the 12 third place teams.
- Most Points In Group Stage Games
- Goal Differential In Group Games
- Most Goals Scored In Group Matches
- Fair Play Points
- Official FIFA World Rankings
The first criteria would be taking the teams with the most points through. A win and a draw will get teams to four points, which has widely been regarded as enough to advance in this scenario. If teams are tied, the next criteria will be a better goal differential in group stage games, followed by the most goals scored in group games.
The fair play points refers to ranking teams based on how they have played the game in terms of fairness, with points being deducted for yellow and red cards earned in the group stage. A team that earns two yellow cards will have a better chance of advancing on fair play points than one that earns a yellow and a red, for example.
If all of the above is tied, the team that is rated higher in the FIFA World Rankings will advance. The odds of the tiebreakers going that low are slim, but it is worth mentioning that the 2018 World Cup saw Japan advance out of its group ahead of Senegal thanks to an edge in fair play points.
Before we get to the third place rankings, however, teams have to secure their positions in the group. Using Group D, for example, the United States enters match day three already locked into the top spot thanks to another new FIFA tiebreaker for this World Cup, head-to-head results.
The USA won its first two group games against Australia and Paraguay, ensuring a head-to-head tiebreaker against both opponents. With Paraguay beating Turkiye in the second group game for both teams, no one can match the USMNT on both points and head-to-head results, turning their final group match against the Turks into a dead rubber.
Paraguay and Australia enter match day three tied at three points a piece, with Australia ahead on goal differential (0 to -2). A win would give either side a clean shot at second place in the group, with the loser dropping to the third place pool at just three points.
A draw, however, would put both Paraguay and Australia at four points. Australia would advance in second place because they would maintain their goal differential edge while Paraguay would have to hope they rate among the top eight third place finishers in the aforementioned tiebreaker categories.
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