Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The WNBA Rookie of the Year race appears decisively tilted toward one player, with sportsbooks removing odds entirely.
- Several rookies have delivered strong performances, but none have matched the consistent dominance seen at the top by Olivia Miles.
- The debate now centers on whether any challenger can close a widening gap before the season’s final weeks.
The WNBA Rookie of the Year race feels kind of ... over. I mean, I just checked the two sportsbooks I use to get an update on current odds for the award, only to discover both had taken the race off the board completely. I can still bet on MVP, Sixth Player, all of the other awards, but it sounds like at the moment, people are convinced Olivia Miles has the award wrapped up.
And maybe she does, but that doesn't mean the rest of this rookie class has been bad. It just means that Miles has been really, really good. And hey — things can still change, right?
5. Pauline Astier, New York Liberty
The New York Liberty have dealt with a number of injury issues this season, and Pauline Astier has been there to consistently pick up the slack, starting 13 of the team's first 15 games. She's averaging 11.1 points per game on 56.1 percent shooting and has been crucial for the team's long-range shooting, knocking down 45.8 percent of her 3-point shots.
The 24-year-old French player is a great example of the value of bringing over international players. The 2025 SuperCup Women MVP has years of professional experience under her belt, and that's allowed her to pretty seamlessly slide into the Liberty lineup.
She's playing more minutes than a number of veteran players on the roster, including Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Rebekah Gardner and Satou Sabally, largely because of her shooting ability. Astier might not get a ton of attention, but she's been a top-five rookie so far.
4. Flau'jae Johnson, Seattle Storm
It's kind of tough to get a read on Flau'jae Johnson's rookie season with the Seattle Storm. On one hand, she's started all 16 games and is averaging a solid 11.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. On the other hand, she's been incredibly inefficient, shooting 33.9 percent from the floor and 26.2 percent from deep.
But she wasn't really viewed as someone who'd be ultra-efficient from the go. It was clear at LSU — especially during her final season — that moving from a college context to a pro context would be an adjustment for Johnson, as her role and her shot selection would both have to change.
So while you'd like to see her make her shots at a higher clip, I think you still have to largely be happy about what you've seen. The Storm are a bad basketball team, so Johnson is in a bit of a higher-usage role than she should ultimately settle into a couple more years into her career, and there have been plenty of good flashes.
3. Kiki Rice, Toronto Tempo
Kiki Rice is one of those players that you watched play in college and you immediately knew that while she wasn't destined to be a star at the next level, she was destined to be a very good pro. So far, that's been true.
The former UCLA guard is averaging 12.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.0 steals per game for the Tempo. Despite a roster that's full of guard options, Rice has stood out for her efficiency, with her 53.3 percent mark from the floor being over 10 percent better than both Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey.
If not for the fact that Rice is currently sidelined with an ankle injury, the race for the No. 2 spot in the rankings might be a bit closer. As is, the injured Rice hokds on to the No. 3 spot.
2. Azzi Fudd, Dallas Wings
No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd may have gotten off to a slow-ish start, but she's really turned on the jets. She's shooting over 50 percent from the floor and her 38.7 percent mark from 3-point range shows that she's quickly adapting to the WNBA game. The story on Fudd coming in was that she had a chance to become one of the league's best 3-point shooters, and she's on the path to being that.
She's also making a big impact on winning basketball games. The Wings have a net rating of +12.2 with Fudd on the floor, an improvement of 18.0 points per 100 possessions than when she's off the floor.
Is Fudd going to win Rookie of the Year? Not with how things have gone so far. However, don't take that as a knock against Fudd, who is well on her way to being a star in the league. There's no shame in being the second-best player in your draft class.
1. Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx
What is there to say about Olivia Miles at this point? She's almost single-handedly made the Minnesota Lynx into title contenders without Napheesa Collier (though I say "almost" since Natasha Howard deserves credit as well). She's the rookie leader in points per game and assists per game while sitting second in both steals and rebounds. Miles is a true game-changing star.
I keep wondering if this hot start will cool off. Surely Miles has to hit the rookie wall at some point, yeah? But...maybe not? She's shot 50 percent or better in seven consecutive games, which suggests that she's already getting better rather than getting figured out by opponents. I mean...last time out against the Sparks, Miles had 31 points!
This race isn't necessarily over, but Miles would need to regress very quickly if anyone else hopes to have a chance here. Is it possible that happens? Sure, but it doesn't look to be likely at this point. Miles is running away with this race.
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