There will still be plenty of jockeying for playoff seeding once the WNBA returns from its FIBA World Cup break in late September, but at the moment, we have a fairly intriguing set of potential first-round matchups — including a made-for-ratings showdown pitting Caitlin Clark and the Fever against Angel Reese and the Dream.
Let's talk about how the current bracket shakes out and detail what makes each projected series intriguing.
(1) Minnesota Lynx vs (8) Dallas Wings
Unfortunately, Azzi Fudd's knee injury ended her season, so we aren't set to get a matchup of the top two picks from this year's WNBA Draft. But we would get a fascinating battle between Olivia Miles and Paige Bueckers, arguably the two best guards in the entire league. This is also a revenge series of sorts for Jessica Shepard and Alanna Smith.
The problem for Dallas is that without Fudd, the team has to go really big with its starting lineup, playing Awak Kuier along with the two aforementioned post players. That's really worrisome for this team's spacing, and it's also potentially putting you at a big defensive disadvantage because the Lynx can go small and just outshoot you.
Minnesota also has Napheesa Collier. The Wings don't have a defender who can handle Collier. Putting Kuier on her is your best bet, but Collier's versatility might just be too much for Kuier to handle, and even if she can stick to her, that clears out room for Natasha Howard to work in the middle without having to worry about the Wings' only real source of rim protection.
(2) Golden State Valkyries vs (7) Washington Mystics
Do you like low-scoring basketball games? If so, you'll love this series!
Rank in Points Per Game | Rank in Opponent Points Per Game | |
|---|---|---|
Valkyries | 14th | 1st |
Mystics | 13th | 2nd |
This is kind of the perfect matchup for Golden State. The team's biggest concern has been generating offense without a true go-to scorer, something that could cause issues against high-powered attacks in a playoff series.
But the Mystics aren't that. They're a young, ascending team with a very good defense, but they also are still in need of a true wing scoring threat. (No offense meant to Sonia Citron, but someone who can be a little more ball-dominant in big moments would help this roster.) Golden State can just push its concerns forward to the semifinals if this is the matchup.
(3) Las Vegas Aces vs (6) New York Liberty
Coming into this season, this seemed like a very plausible WNBA Finals matchup between No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. In reality, it will be two flawed teams hoping to advance.
The Aces come in missing a huge piece after NaLyssa Smith's season-ending knee injury, which is putting a lot of pressure on A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. I fully believe those players can handle it, but when your other two starters are Brianna Turner and Stephanie Talbot, things could still get a little squicky for the defending champions. The team will need at least one bench player to step up.
New York, meanwhile, entered this season with a roster that looked frightening on paper, but injuries and fit concerns have led to disappointing results in reality. Notably, Satou Sabally's concussion issues have caused her to miss most of the season, and both Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart are struggling to shoot from deep. Pauline Astier's emergence has been a positive, but overall this team has felt disjointed since the jump, and it's hard to see that changing in this series.
(4) Atlanta Dream vs (5) Indiana Fever
And finally, we come to the marquee matchup of the first round, at least in terms of expected television ratings and potential storylines. And no, this isn't just about Reese and Clark.
It's also about two of the league's best backcourt duos facing off. Indiana has Clark and Kelsey Mitchell fueling its offense. Atlanta has Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray. That's four players who all have a case for making an All-WNBA team.
Then there's the battle up front, as we have Reese on one side and Aliyah Boston on the other. Boston's two-way ability — and specifically her finishing at the basket — gives the Fever an edge there.
Also: the Dream just signed DeWanna Bonner, who has some history with this Fever team after how her brief 2025 tenure in Indiana went down. That's just another piece of intrigue here.
As for how the teams match up in a "who is favored?" way, Indiana's struggles defensively are definitely the major concern here. The team just hasn't been able to get stops lately, and while their offense is capable of outscoring anyone on any given night, the Fever will need to find a way to slow down an Atlanta team that can hurt you in multiple ways.
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