USA vs Germany: World Cup group stage finale preview

The United States men’s national team plays their final game of the group stage against Germany on Thursday, and their World Cup lives are on the line. Win, and they’re in. Draw, and they’re in. Lose, and they can still be in.

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Even though a draw would be enough to secure them in to the “Round of 16,” USMNT coach Jürgen Klinsmann has repeatedly expressed a desire to win the group, which means beating Germany.

“Well, the message is very simple: we want to beat Germany. We want to be first in our group, so we’re not thinking about a tie,” Klinsmann said, via the team’s website. “We know a tie gets us through too, which if at the end of the day it ends up a tie because it’s an exciting game and a very close game, so be it. But our goal is to beat Germany and to be first now in our group in order to play the second place finisher of the other group in the Round of 16.

“This is really important, so we cannot kind of just hope that it goes our way. We have to work hard for it. We have to take all the energy in there. The circumstances will be, again, very challenging. It’s a one o’clock kick-off, it’s going to be hot and humid, and both teams will hit the wall a couple of times during the 90 minutes. We are prepared for that. Our goal is definitely to beat Germany.”

Klinsmann has a point going for the win. Those three points would put the United States atop Group G and they’d be facing the Group H runner-ups, either Russia, South Korea or Algeria. All three of those teams are beatable, and could very well afford the United States an opportunity to the quarterfinals.

If they don’t win, and draw, or lose and still advance, they’d be the runner-ups in Group G and forced to play the Group H winner. That would likely be Belgium, a team many picked as the dark horse to win the whole tournament. Not an unbeatable team, one that hasn’t convincingly won their group stage games, but a roster riddled with talent that would make the road to the quarterfinals all the harder to get there.

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If the United States lost, there are several scenarios which the United States could still advance, it gets complicated though. If Ghana and Portugal draw and the United States lost, the Americans would still be through to the knockout rounds. If the Americans lost, than the winner of the game between Ghana and Portugal would be level with them at four points and it would come down to tie breakers.

The first tie breaker is goal differential, the difference between how many goals a team has scored and how many goals have been scored against them. Right now the Americans have a +1 goal differential, Ghana has -1 and Portugal has a -4 goal differential. So if the United States lost by one goal, they’d already be down to zero goals in the differential and Ghana winning by two goals would get them into the knockout round. In this scenario Americans are rooting for a Portugal win by a slim margin.

But what if the Americans lose by one goal, and Ghana wins by one goal? They’d both have zero in the goal differential column which means they’d move onto the second tie breaker, which is head-to-head results. In this case the United States would advance over Ghana because they won their World Cup opening match up.

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What if Portugal wins and ends up with an identical goal differential to the Americans? Well than it goes to goals scored, and right now the Americans have scored two more goals than Portugal so it would all depend on how many goals each team scored on Thursday.

If all three of those tie-breakers are dead even, that means Portugal and the United States have the same goal differential, and scored the same number of goals, it would come down to a coin flip.

Seriously.

For a full breakdown of all the potential scenarios, check out this easier to read graphic below.

Unfortunately for the Americans, it sounds like there is a lot of pessimism coming out of the Portugal camp. If an American soccer fan had to pick either Ghana or Portugal to win, you’d prefer Portugal to win because there are less scenarios where a Portugal win and American loss would result in the United States being eliminated.

But they sound downtrodden.

“We’ve all given our best,” said superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, via the Mirror. “It’s virtually impossible now, but this is football.

“Obviously we wanted to win [against the USA] but we couldn’t quite manage it. It’s the players on the pitch who play and who suffer. They all deserve a pat on the back.”

His pessimism seems to have spread through out the team, though that sliver of hope remains alive and some players are being slightly more optimistic.

“Things still look pretty bleak for us,” said Portugal’s Silvestre Varela. “We wanted the win and we’re a bit down about how the game against the USA went.

“We have to keep on believing though. Playing for Portugal gives us strength and we’ll fight till the last minute.

“That’s what the team did against the USA. We battled and battled, even if it wasn’t enough to get the win. We now have to go and win our last game and hope that things happen elsewhere.”

Had the Americans defeated Portugal and not given up that late goal, scored by Varela, they’d be in first place and into the knockout round regardless of what happens on Thursday.

“Obviously, this is a very special game coming up, Germany against the U.S. The results make it even more interesting. If we wouldn’t have ended up in a tie in the last 30 seconds of the game against Portugal, it obviously would be a lot easier, but now as we set out for the game, we have to do it the hard way, the tough way and that’s what we’ve been preparing for,” Klinsmann said. “We’ve been preparing for a very intense game in the heat of Recife and we’re looking forward to it. I think Germany is in a situation where they’re already in the group, I don’t know what percentage maybe 90 or 95 percent, because of the goal advantage that they have in their win against Portugal. They pretty much have qualified and we have to give it another hard day to qualify, which we are ready for, and so we are really looking forward to it.”

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