NCAA Football: SEC West preview

I love college football. LOVE it. It was my first love. One that started all the way back in 1984. I was a kid living in Oklahoma, and the Sooners were the hottest ticket in town. I was hooked. The Jamelle Holieway-Spencer Tillman-Lydell Carr option took me in and never let go.

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Fast-forward 30 years later, and I am still a college football junkie. I spend my Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and most of Tuesday watching every game I could record over the weekend. For love of the game, I guess.

For the last four years, I have picked every single 1-A vs. 1-A college football game against the spread. I will do the same this year. But leading up to that, I am going to do a conference by conference preview. That’s right, for love of the game. And for those of you that are rabid fans like I am.

This piece will focus on the SEC West . Teams are in the projected order of finish. The AAC is here. The Coastal division is here. The Atlantic division is here. The Big 12 preview is here. The Big Ten East is here. The Big Ten West is here. The Pac 12 North is here. The Pac 12 South is here. The SEC East is here.

Yeldon will have an even larger role in the offense this year. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

1. Alabama:

Schedule: vs. West Virginia at Atlanta, vs. Florida Atlantic, vs. Southern Mississippi, vs. Florida, at Mississippi, at Arkansas, vs. Texas A&M, at Tennessee, at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Western Carolina, vs. Auburn

Prediction: The loss of A.J. McCarron will hurt, but probably not much. WRs Kenny Bell and Kevin Norwood are also gone. The big loss on offense though are along the line. T Cyrus Kouandijo is now in the NFL. The defensive losses are many and heavy. CB Deion Belue, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, LB Adrian Hubbard, CB John Fulton, LB C.J. Mosley, DE Jeoffrey Pagan, S Nick Perry, DE Ed Stinton, and S Vinnie Sunseri are all gone. Not all nine of them were starters, but all of them played big roles. Trey DePriest and D.J. Pettway will still anchor a defense that didn’t rebuild so much as reload. RB T.J. Yeldon and WR Amari Cooper are now the veterans on the offense. Arie Kouandijo and Austin Shephed are still beasts along the line. Blake Sims has won the “starting job” for now. Florida State transfer Jake Coker will play against West Virginia as well. Look for one of them to separate themselves within the first couple of games.

The games at Mississippi and LSU look ominous. They get revenge games against Auburn and A&M at home. The potential is here for Alabama to lose a couple of games if their QB situation lingers. There is also potential for them to run the table. I see Alabama at 11-1 right now, and winning the SEC Championship game. That would likely be enough to get them an invitation to the playoff

Hilliard will be the feature back in the offense this year. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

2. LSU:

Schedule: vs. Wisconsin at Jerry World, vs. Sam Houston, vs. Louisiana-Monroe, vs. Mississippi State, vs. New Mexico State, at Auburn, at Florida, vs. Kentucky, vs. Mississippi, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M

Schedule:

Prediction: The offense is gutted. QB Zach Mettenberger, RB Jeremy Hill, RB Alfred Blue, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Odell Beckham Jr, G Trai Turner, and FB J.C. Copeland are all gone. RB Kenny Hilliard looks promising, as does his backup Terrance Magee. Anthony Jennings won the QB job from true freshman Brandon Harris. The offense will likely have some growing pains, but the defense is again a strength despite the loss of DT Ego Ferguson and LB Lamin Barrow. The LBs are expecially tough. The performance of Frank Herron, Ferguson’s replacement, will help determine just how good the LB’s are.

At Auburn, Florida, and Texas A&M can be dangerous games. At least they get Alabama at home. It won’t matter though if they unit doesn’t play to their potential. The Tigers are good enough to finish second in the West, but they could also finish as low as fourth. I see LSU at 10-2. The only reason they are ahead of Auburn is because of Auburn’s brutal schedule.

Can Nick Marshall take Auburn back to the promised land? Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

3. Auburn:

Schedule: vs. Arkansas, vs. San Jose State, at Kansas State, vs. Louisiana Tech, vs. LSU, at Mississippi State, vs. South Carolina, at Mississippi, vs. Texas A&M, at Georgia, vs Samford, at Alabama

Prediction: The Tigers led all of NCAA in rushing last year, but T Greg Robinson, RB Tre Mason, and FB Jay Prosch are gone. QB Nick Marshall will still do a lot of running himself, but the onus is on Cameron Artis-Payne to pick up where Mason left off. The middle of the O-line is still very good, so there will likely be running lanes available. Marshall’s favorite receiver Sammie Coates is back as well. Still, I think the loss of Robinson and Mason will hurt this rushing attack. They will be top ten instead of number one, which is still very good. The loss of DE Dee Ford hurts, but this defense is still powerful. The line is impressive and the secondary is disruptive. The linebackers are a very good unit as well, but lack some depth.

This team will go as far as their running game and defense take them. Last year, it got them to the Championship game. This year though, more than half of their schedule is ranked in preseason, and five of those games are on the road. I actually think Auburn will be a better team than LSU, but the chances of them going through this gauntlet without losing more than two games is slim. They got lucky a lot last year. It can’t happen two years in a row, can it? I have Auburn at 9-3, and if they finish at that mark with this schedule, they might still be deserving of a slot in the playoffs.

Bo Wallace could have a huge year, and the Rebels could with him. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

4. Mississippi:

Schedule: vs. Boise State at Atlanta, at Vanderbilt, vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, vs Memphis, vs. Alabama, at Texas A&M, vs. Tennessee, at LSU, vs. Auburn, vs. Presbyterian, at Arkansas, vs. Mississippi State

Prediction: The loss of WRs Donte Moncrief and Ja-Mes Logan will hurt, but QB Bo Wallace and RB I’Tavius Mathers return to lead an offense that was pretty good last year. Wallace just needs his new receivers to get on the same page as him. The loss of LB Mike Marry will hurt, but Deterrian Shackleford was granted an extra year of eligibility, so the unit as a whole is still a strength. The secondary, led by S Cody Prewitt is pretty good too.

It says something about the SEC West when a team ranked 18th in the country is picked to finish fourth in their division. That said, this could be the year for Ole Miss. They made a lot of strides last year, and seem to be getting top ten recruiting classes every year now. I still have them at 9-3 since they dodge Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia. Like I said, if ever there were a year for them to make a run, this would be it!

Things could be lining up for Prescott and the Bulldogs to breakout this year. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

5. Mississippi State:

Schedule: vs. Southern Mississippi, vs. UAB, at South Alabama, at LSU, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Auburn, at Kentucky, vs. Arkansas, vs. Tennessee-Martin, at Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt, at Mississippi

Prediction: They lost RB Ladarius Perkins, and OL Gabe Jackson and Charles Siddoway. QB Tyler Russell is also gone, but that just means that Dak Prescott will be on the field all the time, which could allow him to find more of a rhythm. Leading receivers Jameon Lewis and Robert Johnson return. so the core of this offense is still intact. There are 10 upperclassmen starting on a stout defense. The Bulldogs certainly have the potential to make some noise this year, especially with some uncertainty at A&M and LSU.

Their schedule is easy as far as the SEC West goes. They don’t have to play Georgia, South Carolina, or Florida. I have them at 8-4, but there are at least two more winnable games in there. Yes, I know. Let the hazing begin for me taking MSU over A&M, but they get the Aggies at home. That still counts for something!

The Circus has packed up and headed for Cleveland so College Station can finaly focus on football again. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

6.Texas A&M:

Schedule: at South Carolina, vs. Lamar, vs. Rice, at SMU, vs. Arkansas at Jerry World, at Mississippi State, vs. Mississippi, at Alabama, vs. Louisiana-Monroe, at Auburn, vs. Missouri, vs. LSU

Prediction: This offense lost three players to the first round of the NFL draft in WR Mike Evans, T Jake Matthews, and QB Johnny Manziel. At least the circus has left town with Manziel. RB Ben Malena is also gone. So where is the production going to come from? JuCo transfer Josh Reynolds will help ease the loss of Evans. Kenny Hill beat out true freshman Kyle Allen for the QB job. Tra Carson will be the running back, at least early on. The Aggies gave up a slew of points last year, and could again. Can the offense keep up like it did last year? I have my doubts.

Games at Alabama and Auburn look like sure losses. So does tonight’s tilt with South Carolina. I have A&M at 7-5, but they could just as easily go 5-7 if the offense doesn’t play well.

Another year in the offense should help Allen out. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

7. Arkansas:

Schedule: at Auburn, vs. Nicholls State, at Texas Tech, vs. Northern Illinois, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, vs. Georgia, vs. UAB, at Mississippi State, vs. LSU, vs. Mississippi, at Missouri

Prediction: Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither was Fayetteville. Bielema will turn this program around at some point, but progress is hard to point out in the brutal SEC West. Brandon Allen, Demetrius Wilson, and Jonathan Williams all have another year of experience in this offense. Look for the Razorbacks to throw a little more this year. The defense lost DE Chris Smith and DTs Robert Thomas and Byran Jones. Still, Trey Flowers is a force on the end. The defense should improve some from last year.

There will be improvement on the team, but the record likely won’t show it. I still only see three wins, which would put them at 3-9 for the second straight year.

I will try to get conference previews up for the other conferences as time permits.

Come back tomorrow for the odds & predictions for Saturday’s games!

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