DraftKings MLB Picks For August 15
There are nine games tonight. The only ace is pitching at Coors Field. Is he worth using? Will one of the other five second tier pitchers outscore him? Who is likely to do so? Let’s hit the past stats to gain some perspective for our DraftKings MLB picks.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Matt Moore has never faced the Pirates. His 11 walks in two starts with the Giants is a bit concerning, especially with all of the right handed power for the Pirates. You may want to leave this alone. Right handers have 17 homers off of Moore already this year.
Brandon Finnegan has never faced the Marlins, but this is kind of a shadow of the Marlins. Giancarlo Stanton is out, and Marcell Ozuna is mired in a horrible slump. Finnegan has turned in three straight quality starts. Two of those were against the Cardinals. He looks like a good option tonight as well!
Drew Smyly has never faced the Padres. San Diego is struggling on offense, especially without Matt Kemp. Smyly has turned in four straight quality starts, giving up just seven runs total in that span. He is a strong play tonight.
Luis Perdomo has never faced the Rays, and though he has pitched marginally better lately, his ERA is still 6.80. You can do better.
Chad Green has never faced the Blue Jays. You don’t want him on your team when he does.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
Max Scherzer ($10,800): Things get interesting right off the bat on this Monday, and that wont end anytime soon. The current Rockies are hitting just .176 against Scherzer in 68 at bats, but they do have four homers. However, he has only allowed six runs and struck out an impressive 25. Now the bad news: Over his career, Scherzer is 0-3 with a 5.32 ERA in four starts at Coors Field. Fly ball pitchers usually struggle there, but with a smaller player pool and his strikeout upside, Scherzer is still in my top tier. He is also the only overlap in the FantasyPros daily lineup optimizer. He is projected for 23.98 points, the best of the night.
Robbie Ray ($9,600): Ray put up 22 Draftkings points against the same team and same opposing pitcher on Wednesday. The only thing that changes is the venue. Ray may fare even better at home. I would bet on him before Colon, though Colon is much safer because he is much cheaper.
Honorable Mention:
Daniel Norris ($6,900): Norris pitched well against Seattle in a losing effort in his last start. He has only struck out two Royals in 18 career at bats against them, but the Royals offense is not really feared this year. They pulverized lefty Hector Santiago yesterday, but Norris has a bit more life in his pitches. He could be a solid option here, but don’t expect him to go deep in the game.
Bartolo Colon ($6,800): The current Diamondbacks are hitting just 11-52(.212) against Father Time with just one run given up. He also boasts ten strikeouts. Colon’s price went up $900 from last Wednesday’s start against this same Arizona team. In that game he put up 25 DraftKings points. He could be a great bargain yet again!
Dark Horses:
R.A. Dickey ($5,600): Knuckleballers are prone to the occasional blow up, but don’t expect it here. The Yankees only have five homers against Dickey in 189 at bats. With Alex Rodriguez gone and Dustin Ackley hurt, the Yankees are rather punchless against Dickey. Aaron Judge is off to a great start, but can he hit a big league knuckler?
Jorge De La Rosa ($4,000): Want to go really cheap? The Nationals are hitting a decent .245 against De La Rosa, but they hast struck out 25 times in 106 at bats. If you take out the stats of the injured Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Drew, the average drops to .235 and the team has just one homer and five runs in 68 at bats. On top of that, De La Rosa is 52-19 with a 4.23 ERA in his career at home. He likely wont get the win against Scherzer, but he could provide great value so you can afford Scherzer.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Mike Trout ($5,000) has clobbered Felix Hernandez. The Angels have only hit ten homers off of the King in 324 at bats. Trout has six of them. He is 28-75(.373) with five walks, four doubles, two triples, those six home runs, and an impressive 18 RBI. For you gamblers, Albert Pujols ($3,100) is only 11-60(.183) off of Felix, but he does have five walks, five doubles, a homer, and seven RBI. Cliff Pennington ($2,400) is actually 14-48(.292) off of Felix with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Geovany Soto ($2,600) is 3-8 with a pair of RBI.
Don’t use Ian Kennedy today. The current Tigers are hitting .269 off of him in 108 at bats. Instead, stack some Tigers. Miguel Cabrera ($4,700) is 5-12 with two walks, two doubles, a triple, and a pair of RBI off Kennedy. Ian Kinsler ($4,300) is 7-12 with four doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Justin Upton ($2,300) is 3-11 with three walks and a solo homer against Kennedy.
It may be worth stacking against Martin Perez. Coco Crisp ($4,200) is 7-20 with four doubles and a RBI. Khris Davis ($4,700) is 5-7 with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Perez. Jake Smolinski ($3,700) is 2-8 with a triple and two RBI against Perez. Danny Valencia ($4,300) is 5-13 with a walk a double, a homer, and five RBI against Perez.
Look out for Mariners against Ricky Nolasco. Robinson Cano ($4,900) is 4-6 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Nolasco. Nelson Cruz ($4,300) is 3-10 with a double, two homers, and three RBI. Chris Iannetta ($2,200) is 5-16(.313) with two doubles and five RBI. Seth Smith ($3,500) is 5-13(.385) with three walks, a homer, and two RBI off Nolasco.
Next: More Notes For 8-15
Carlos Gonzalez ($4,700) is 3-10 with two walks and three solo homers against Max Scherzer. Daniel Descalso ($3,000) has the Rockies’ other homer against Scherzer, his only hit in four at bats.
Carlos Beltran ($5,200) is 3-8 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Ross Detwiler.
Jayson Werth ($5,400) is 5-17 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Jorge De La Rosa.
Mark Teixeira ($3,600) is only 6-25(.240) against R.A. Dickey, but he has two homers and four RBI.
Jay Bruce ($3,700) has bucked the lefty on lefty rule, going 3-9 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Robbie Ray.
Eduardo Nunez ($4,200) is 1-2 with a two run homer against Ryan Vogelsong. Angel Pagan ($5,000) also has a two run homer off of him in four at bats.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!