DraftKings MLB Picks For August 19
We have a full player pool to choose our DraftKings MLB picks from on this Friday. Five pitchers are priced over $10,000. Should we try to get two on our team? Should we fade all of them? Let’s take a look at the past stats for some help!
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Steven Matz was solid in his only start against the Giants in his career back on April 29th. He gave up seven hits in six scoreless innings while striking out four. His win potential is diminished a bit facing Cueto, but Matz could still be a solid play.
Matt Andriese has been walloped lately. You don’t want to use him against a good Rangers offense.
Reds rookie Tim Adleman has had a pretty good start to his career, posting a 3.72 ERA in four career starts. However, lefties have hit three homers off of him already. That puts Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, and Chase Utley as players to consider.
Jose Berrios has never faced the Royals. This looks like a decent matchup, but Berrios has only given up less than three runs once in seven starts. He has also gone six innings just once. He has a bright future, but that is no reason to use him now for DFS purposes.
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Rick Porcello ($11,400): Porcello’s breakout season continues, and he has a solid history against the Tigers. Really, only one current Tiger has had his number (more on that later). If you take out that one, the team is 10-61(.164) with no homers, two RBI, and 15 strikeouts. The chances of Porcello putting up good numbers are high, even against Detroit’s rookie phenom.
Zack Greinke ($8,800): He was dismantled by the Red Sox on Sunday, but there is no reason for him to be this low against the Padres. I’m going to feel like a criminal using him this cheap. The Padres are only hitting .224 against him in 170 at bats with just eight runs scored. Those are elite numbers. He only has 28 strikeouts, but if he isn’t giving up runs, he’s getting the win. I wouldn’t be surprised if Greinke is the highest scorer of the night. At any rate, he should be a bargain at this price.
Masahiro Tanaka ($9,300): The Angels are hitting a solid .270 against Tanaka, but they have scored just two runs in 37 at bats while striking out seven times. Tanaka’s lack of strikeouts and small sample size keep him out of the elite tier, but these numbers are very good for the price if you want to stay out of the five digit range.
Gerrit Cole ($7,500): The Marlin offense is missing a lot of punch without Justin Bour and Giancarlo Stanton. Those two have both homered off of Cole. The team is still hitting a robust .311 against Cole without those two bats, but they have only two homers and eight RBI and still have 15 strikeouts in 90 at bats. Cole is a solid play against a watered down Marlin lineup.
Edinson Volquez ($5,600): Volquez was solid against the Twins last weekend, giving up two runs in six innings. The Twins are now hitting only .211 against Volquez in 147 at bats with two homers, (and only one double!), 12 runs, and 38 strikeouts. Those numbers are very good for his price. He also has win potential against struggling rookie Jose Berrios.
Kendall Graveman ($5,400): The current White Sox are just 4-25(.160) against Graveman, with a two run homer by Jose Abreu being the only blemish. The four strikeouts are a bit low, but they are right in line with Graveman’s numbers. He isn’t a strikeout guy, so there isn’t a lot of upside, but if he can handcuff the Sox again, he will be well worth the price.
James Shields ($4,300): Going by past stats alone, Shields borders on elite against the A’s. The current A’s team is hitting only .219 against him in 114 at bats with only seven runs and 25 strikeouts. Now the bad news: Shields has given up 21 runs in three starts in August spanning just 9.1 innings. Even worse than that, he has only struck out two batters. There is a very large amount of risk involved here, but Shields could come up huge for the price.
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Even though Tanner Roark looked good against the Braves last weekend, the Braves still hold a .299 career average against him. Matt Kemp ($3,200) is 3-8 with two walks, two homers, and five RBI. Freddie Freeman ($4,800) is 11-28(.393) with four doubles and a walk, but he has no counting stats.,Anthony Recker ($2,300) is 4-9 with a double, a homer, and two RBI, and he should start with A.J. Pierzynski out. Nick Markakis ($3,600) only has one hit in 12 at bats, but he has six walks, and the hit is a solo homer.
Kyle Hendricks has had a terrific season, but I still don’t trust him enough to use him at Coors Field. Charlie Blackmon ($5,700) is 3-8 with two walks and a RBI. Carlos Gonzalez ($5,500) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Hendricks. DJ LeMahieu ($4,500) is 3-10 with a walk, a triple, and five RBI. Gerardo Parra ($3,000) is 3-7 with a RBI. Ben Paulsen ($3,000) is 2-5 with a RBI. Ryan Raburn ($3,000) is 2-3, but has no counting stats. At any rate, the Rockies have hit Hendricks hard. He also has a 4.38 ERA in two career starts at Coors Field. He is not an elite option tonight.
Julio Teheran has been a good pitcher throughout his career, but the Nationals have absolutely abused him while he has been in the league. He is able to dodge Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Lobaton because of DL stints. Those two are 14-47(.298) with four homers and 12 RBI. Don’t worry, there is plenty more to go around. Daniel Murphy ($4,800) is 8-20 with six walks, four doubles, a homer, and six RBI against Teheran. Wilson Ramos ($3,700) is 3-9 with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Anthony Rendon ($3,600) is 6-22(.273) with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI. Maybe Ben Revere ($2,800) can break out of his awful slump. He is 4-18(.222) with two triples and four RBI against Teheran. However, it has been Bryce Harper ($5,300) that has really feasted against Teheran. Harper is 12-28(.429) with four walks, three doubles, five homers, and ten RBI against Teheran.
The Orioles are hitting .298 against Collin McHugh. You know there are some stack options here! Pedro Alvarez ($4,700) is 2-4 with a homer and four RBI. Chris Davis ($4,300) is 2-8 with a walk, a homer, and two driven in against McHugh. Adam Jones ($4,900) is 3-12 with a solo homer. Manny Machado ($4,900) is 4-12 with a double and a RBI. Steve Pearce ($3,300) is 3-7 with two walks, a homer, and two RBI off of McHugh.
The Astros could get their revenge on the Orioles tonight with Wade Miley on the mound. Jose Altuve ($5,500) is 11-18(.611) with three doubles and a solo homer off of Miley. Evan Gattis ($4,300) is 5-13(.385) with two walks, two doubles, and two RBI. Marwin Gonzalez ($4,200) is 5-12(.417) with a walk, two doubles, and a solo homer. George Springer ($5,100) is 2-7 with two walks, a double, and a solo homer against Miley.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Curtis Granderson ($3,200) is only 3-12 against Johnny Cueto, but he has four walks, two homers, and three RBI. Neil Walker ($3,600) is only 9-48(.188), but he has five walks, a double, two homers, and six RBI against Cueto. Jay Bruce ($3,600) is 1-3 with a triple and a RBI against his former teammate.
Billy Butler ($3,600) is the only Oakland player that has had much success against James Shields. Butler is 7-21 with a walk, two doubles, and three RBI.
Michael Saunders ($4,100) is 4-6 with two walks, a double, and a RBI against Trevor Bauer. Josh Donaldson ($5,200) is 2-5 with two walks, a double, and three RBI. Devon Travis ($4,500) is just 1-6 against Bauer, but he has a homer and four RBI.
Dustin Ackley‘s three solo shots off of Jered Weaver are on the DL, but Weaver still has to face Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,700) and Mark Teixeira ($3,500). Ellsbury is 9-29(.310) with a walk, two doubles, and two solo homers against Weaver. Teixeira is only 8-37(.216), but he has four walks, a double, a triple, three homers, and ten RBI against the veteran righty.
Logan Forsythe ($4,800) is 2-3 with two doubles and a RBI against Cole Hamels. Matt Duffy ($3,100) and Logan Morrison ($2,800) have fond memories of Hamels from the National League. Duffy is 3-6 with three RBI. Morrison is 11-28(.393) with five walks, four doubles, and two RBI against Hamels.
Joe Mauer ($4,800) has had some success against Volquez. He is 11-24(.458) with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Edinson Volquez. Eduardo Escobar ($3,000) is 4-15(.267) with a walk and three RBI. Brian Dozier ($5,000) is only 2-15(.133), but he has two walks, a homer, and three RBI.
Christian Yelich ($5,200) is 5-11 with two walks, two homers, and four RBI against Gerrit Cole. He is about all the Marlins have left!
Ian Kinsler ($4,100) has hammered Rick Porcello. Kinsler is 7-13(.538) with a double, a triple, and five RBI off Porcello. The rest of the team is 10-61(.164) with two RBI.
Freddy Galvis ($4,600) is 3-9 with a double and three RBI against Adam Wainwright. Ryan Howard ($4,200) is only 6-27(.222), but he is hot right now and has six walks and three RBI against Wainwright. Carlos Ruiz ($3,400) is 8-19(.421) with a walk, three doubles, and a RBI.
Rajai Davis ($5,100) is 8-27(.296) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Francisco Liriano. Mike Napoli ($5,200) only has one hit in six at bats, but he has three walks, and that hit was a three run homer.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!