Fantasy Baseball 2017: Position Scarcity is Changing

The middle infield positions made huge strides in 2016 to bridge production gaps. Could this mark the end of position scarcity in fantasy baseball?

The difference between depth and ceiling is what a ton of fantasy baseball players confuse when discussing position scarcity. Before this season, the corner infield positions felt deep and plentiful but the middle infield positions needed extra attention on draft day. This season changed that in a big way and it looks like it will carry into 2017.

THE RISE OF SHORTSTOP AND SECOND BASE

In 2016, there were eight — yes, EIGHT — second base eligible players ranked in the top 25 among batters. There were 13 second basemen ranked at least 42nd or better, which covered 90% of all mixed leagues. Everyone gets a quality second baseman.

It doesn’t stop there, however. Counting the players with multiple position eligibility, there were eight shortstop eligible player ranking in the top 30 batters. Ten shortstops appeared ranked 43rd or better — enough for those popular 10-team standards — and two shortstops who were ranked preseason outside the top 240 finished top five in the league on the ESPN Player Rater.

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But not only those, but middle infield studs like Aledmys Diaz and Trevor Story had spectacular seasons cut short due to injury. Even Carlos Correa was ranked just outside the top 50 in a down season and we lost Dee Gordon for half the season due to suspension. Even players like Jonathan Schoop and Devon Travis had monster contributions.

A large portion of these players carried with them multiple position flexibility with the corner infield positions. I found myself at times with the choice of either playing them at either position and felt more comfortable and that I had a better team with them on the corner so I could slot in a second baseman. Players like Jonathan Villar, Ian Desmond, Jose Ramirez, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, and Anthony Rendon; many times, I felt more comfortable with them playing at their alternate positions! Which was crazy to think before the season.

Remember when Manny Machado gained shortstop position eligibility for next season and everyone talked about how much value it added to him? At this point, I’m just happy he retained his third base eligibility! And going into next season, the only value for him having either position is the fact that he has both and provides flexibility.

THE FALL OF FIRST AND THIRD BASE

What first basemen provided this season is a far cry from what they’ve done historically. Not only did first basemen get outranked in the top 50 by both middle infield positions, the third highest ranked player with first base eligibility was Murphy.

At third base, the position was again outranked by second base and shortstop in the top 50. None of the top seven third basemen were able to match their preseason draft rank and ADP. And again, Murphy ranked as the fourth best third baseman in a year he played one game there.

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So while the title of the section indicates a fall, it might be more of a mere drop off. For example, for batters ranked 51-60, there were six eligible first and third basemen among those ten players. So what do we make of all this?

EQUALITY AMONG THE INFIELD

Now, let’s get one thing straight. It’s not that these positions have flip-flopped and I’m not arguing that. It’s that they’ve become basically equal and I’m sure you could argue a slight lean in talent level from either side. But I do think I’ll give the slight edge to the middle infield. Let’s compare the two.

1. Positional Age

First basemen are getting older and each season that goes by, there is an inherent risk for injury. Among first basemen in the top 50 from this past season, half of them will be 33 or older at the start of the 2017 season. And while the third base position is flushed with youth, how long can Adrian Beltre keep up his production? There is always risk but here is to hoping he ages like David Ortiz. The average age of the top 20 shortstops and second basemen makes the corner infield look like a retirement home (which is kind of what first base is).

2. Retired/Lost Players

David Wright was a walking injury last season and I see no possible way he makes any impact this year. Ortiz (first base eligible in Yahoo!) has sailed into the sunset. Unfortunately, another popular player in Prince Fielder also has been forced to retire due to injury.

3. Youth Movement

Baseball is going through a monster youth movement so there are players on both sides that are young and either are top players or projected to be just that. However, I believe the middle infield positions have a lot more youth on their side.

Among the top 20 first basemen ranked, I can’t say there were any new come ups outside of Wil Myers. Definitely no rookie or second year players that made themselves known. Across the diamond, Villar and Lamb broke out this season and Alex Bregman figures to be a fantasy asset in 2017 as well.

But with shortstop and second base, there is youth that cannot be found any where else. Players like Rougned Odor, Turner, Correa, Corey Seager, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell, Story, Dansby Swanson, and Javier Baez all are below the age of 25. It stands to reason the future outlook of players entering their prime looks better than those exiting their prime (see point 1).

POSITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS?

As the offseason churns forward — and this even applies to dynasty leagues — you will see a lot of writers and websites still providing slight positional adjustments for second base and shortstop to bump up their value. But as we’ve seen, the middle infield is flush and still has prospects on the way while maintaining probably the best youth in all of baseball.

Next: Yankees Greg Bird: Flying Under the Radar in 2017?

Which is why going into your 2017 drafts, there should be no biases like there has been for the past half-decade. We all have gone up a round to snag a shortstop in the past. But reaching for players due to a false sense of positional scarcity won’t make sense next season. Let your opponents make that mistake.

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