Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!Â
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 15 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 368 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!
Friday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Jeff Teague ($6,300)Â Although we are still waiting on a few Vegas totals to be released due to injuries across the league, the current highest projected scoring game matches up the Pacers and Sixers with a 213 team total. The Pacers are projected to score 108 points and considering these two teams just played each other we should be able to quickly identify the best plays!
Teague absolutely dominated the Sixers in the last game with 30 points, 9 rebounds and 50.9 FD points which is nearly 8x at this price point! I do not believe this was a one game outlier either as Philadelphia is 27th in DvP against opposing PG’s this season which is the lowest mark on the slate. Teague is a must play in all formats as he has a relatively safe floor and clearly demonstrated GPP upside.
Chris Paul ($9,300) The Clippers and Thunder take the court for the second time this season and although most eyes will be on Russell Westbrook, the better DFS point per dollar play looks to be CP3. The Clippers should see one of the biggest increases in pace on the slate and OKC has struggled to defend opposing PG’s this season as they are 24th in DvP.
These two teams have already met this year and Paul put up a monster performance with 15 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists and 6 steals for 48.7 FD points. In that same game Westbook only managed 45.7 FD points and has not come close to paying off his elevated price tag recently so I am happy to take the $2,200 savings and lock in CP3 in a fantastic match-up.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
J.R. Smith ($4,200)Â Shooting guard is a spot I am going to look to save salary at on this slate and we have some great bargain options to allow us to spend up elsewhere.
The Cavaliers get a match-up against the Wizards who are 27th in the NBA in DvP against opposing SG’s and we also get the benefit of Bradley Beal being out this game. Smith has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last 4 games so we know the usage will be there and he only needs 21 points to hit 5x value which he has done in 3 of his last 5 games.
Danny Green ($4,500)Â After missing the first 7 seven games with an injured quad, Green returned to the lineup and racked up 23.6 FD points in 26 minutes of action against Houston (5.2x value). I like the strategy of a double punt at SG as it really opens up our flexibility across the rest of our roster and we can still look to hit 5-6x value with this strategy!
***Update: Danny Green is OUT for tonight. If you are looking for a value SG – Marcus Thornton ($3,800) is an intriguing option assuming Bradley Beal is ruled out. Thornton in his last game played 34 minutes (once Beal was out with injury) and racked up 31.8 FD points which is 8.3x value at this price point. If Beal misses the game tonight, Thornton is a top bargain play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Paul George ($8,500) Heading back to the Pacers-Sixers game, we get the ability to target one of the elite NBA talents at a reasonable price point. The Sixers are 25th in DvP against opposing SF’s so far this season and in this same spot in his last game, PG put up 42.1 FD points on the back of 28 points and 8 rebounds. The Pacers and Sixers game is going to be one of my favorite to target as the team total is one of the highest on the slate and with a 4.5 spread we can expect the game to stay close and allow the starters to play their full complement of minutes.
Gordon Hayward ($7,400)Â Hayward has returned to the Jazz lineup with three straight games playing over 30 minutes and has averaged 25.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3 assists. Hayward has put up a massive 32.6% usage rate and at this price point makes an easy plug and play in cash games and I believe is under priced which allows him to be utilized in GPP formats as well!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Blake Griffin ($8,700) The Clippers and Thunder game should be full of fantasy goodness and I love the idea of stacking CP3 and Blake against the suspect defense of OKC. The Thunder are 24th in DvP against opposing PF’s this season and in this same spot against the Thunder earlier this season was able to put up 36.3 FD points.
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Derrick Favors ($5,900)Â Similar to his teammate Gordon Hayward, Favors is massively under-priced due to his early season injuries and is one of the best point per dollar plays on the board. Favors has put up back to back double-doubles, averaging 36.7 FD points which is 6.2x value.
Joel Embiid ($5,200)Â The center spot is a great place to save some salary as the $5k-$6k range is loaded with high upside options, but there is no player I intend to have more exposure to than The Process. Embiid is expected to play on Friday (and sit out Saturday) and should see his normal 24 minutes of action. Normally we would not look to target players on a minutes restriction, but Embiid is not a normal player. Embiid has exceeded 6x value in 2 of his last three games, and in the two games where he saw 25 minutes he managed to put up 36 and 38 FD points. If you want to save salary and target upside, Embiid is your man!