Fansided

FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots November 13

By Brian Tulloch

Nov 9, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) controls the ball against Denver Nuggets guard Will Barton (5) and forward Danilo Gallinari (8) and guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) in the final seconds of the fourth quarter at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets defeated the Trail Blazers 108-104. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 9, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) controls the ball against Denver Nuggets guard Will Barton (5) and forward Danilo Gallinari (8) and guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) in the final seconds of the fourth quarter at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets defeated the Trail Blazers 108-104. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup! 

The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.

One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!

To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.

This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.

Over the first 17 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 369.6 a night which means we have needed 6.15x value to win big!

Sunday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Plays

Damian Lillard (9,300) Although Sunday’s slate only gives us four games, the top end of the player pool is loaded with stars so figuring out which top plays to pay up for will likely be the difference between staying above or below the cash line.

The Trail Blazers have the second highest projected team total on the night (110.8) and face off against a Nuggets team that allows some of the biggest point totals to opposing guards! The Nuggets are dead last in DvP to opposing point guards and in this same match-up earlier this season, Lillard put up his best performance of the year with 56.5 FD points. This game has a reasonable 5.5 spread so we should expect it to stay close and allow Lillard to play big time minutes with his team leading 33% usage rate.

Emmanuel Mudiay (5,800) On the other side of this match-up, Mudiay will get the favorable spot of playing against Lillard’s “defense” as Portland is 24th in league in DvP versus opposing PG’s. In their previous meeting, Mudiay put up 21 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists while notching 36.4 FD points (6.3x value) and I expect more of the same in this game tonight. Going high-low at PG is my preferred strategy as you can lock in solid value with Mudiay or pivot to D’Angelo Russell ($5,800) at the same price point.

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards

C.J. McCollum ($7,400) Heading back to Portland, I am looking to lock in Lillard’s running mate with a mini-stack as the Nuggets are 29th in DvP against opposing SG’s. In this same match-up against Denver earlier this season, Lillard put up 49.5 FD points on the back of 23 points and 10 rebounds and I would look to a repeat performance at a reasonable price point.

Klay Thompson ($5,800) Looking over this slate, the Warriors have a massive team total at 123 points but they also have a 16 point spread against the Suns which means we want to have exposure but we have to be wary of the blow-out risk here. Klay is one of the best ways to get high upside exposure to this game at a price point and position that will not hurt you if the game gets our of hand.

The Suns actually defend the SG reasonably well (12th in DvP) but we know Klay will get 30+ minutes and is still putting up 16+ shots a game which is in line with his career norms. His efficiency has been down this year as he is only shooting 43% so if he can get back to his usual 47% we should see the FanDuel performance follow.

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($9,500) I have been waiting all season to see KD’s price rise above $10k but as long as FanDuel is intent on keeping it as this level he becomes a must play on a short slate. The Warriors have the highest team total on the slate and the Suns are 23rd in DvP to opposing Small Forwards and at an overall weak position it makes sense to pay up to lock in the safety of Durant tonight.

In their last meeting, Durant scored 37 points for 53 FD points and this is a spot where even in a blow out, I would expect Durant to get his stats regardless and am looking to build around him in all my lineups.

Andre Igoudala ($3,800) This one is a bit of a hedge play as Iggy allows us exposure to the Warriors and if the game does get out of hand we can utilize Iggy’s minutes in place of KD! Iggy is actually a safe cash game play at this price point as he consistently sees 20+ minutes and should be able to produce roughly 20 FD and if he gets extended run could be a GPP play as the Warriors see the biggest pace increase of any team on the slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center

Julius Randle ($6,300) Power forward is a good spot to spend down at on this slate and I love the price point and performance we get from Randle. Randle is coming off his best game of the season with a 40 FD point outing and his ability to produce across all statistical categories makes him a safe cash game play and against a big Minnesota team he should see extended run in an effort to keep up with Dieng and Towns.

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Marquese Chriss ($3,500) The breakout has not yet happened but on a short slate I am happy to roster a bare minimum priced player in the highest projected scoring game on the slate. Chriss is coming off a 22 FD point outing in his last game in only 18 minutes which is 6.2x value in such limited run. If Chriss can build off that in a spot against a Warriors team that is dead last in DvP against PF’s we could see a GPP winning score!

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600) The price point for KAT continues to be one that I look to target each and every night and off back to back 40+ point outings I want to go back to the well on Sunday! Towns is by far the top Center option on the board and I believe most players will look to save salary at this position with may actually make KAT one of the lower owned stars on the slate.

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