FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – December 30
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 60 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.6 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Friday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 8:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Derrick Rose ($6,700) The point guard position on the main slate looks like a great place to target the mid-range as the top end options are facing tough match-ups (CP3 versus Patrick Beverley, Curry in a potential blow-out versus a slow-paced Dallas team and Lillard likely sitting out).
Derrick Rose and the Knicks get a great match-up against a New Orleans Pelicans team that is giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing PG’s on the season. Jrue Holiday is a player we can look to exploit with mid-range point guards as Deron Williams proved just a few games ago when he dropped 39.9 FanDuel points against the Pelicans.
Rose is coming off one of his best games of the season when he put 41.4 FanDuel points against the Hawks and has scored at least 24 real life points in three of his last four games.
Reggie Jackson ($5,500) Point guards against the Hawks! Any time we can target PG’s against Dennis Schroder, we should absolutely dive into the match-up and Reggie Jackson may be my top GPP play of the night as a result.
The Hawks are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing PG’s and Schroder has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG on the slate! The previously mentioned Derrick Rose just put 40+ on this Hawks team and Jackson should be in a position to do the same tonight!
The reigns have finally been taken off Jackson as he has played 30 or more minutes in three straight games and at this price point is a candidate for 7x value based on the match-up!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300) The shooting guard position is weak on this slate so it makes sense to pay up for one of the top priced options. James Harden is a player I will look to fade on this slate as he was not able to exceed 50 FanDuel points in any game against the Clippers last season.
Giannis is my top play at the position as the Bucks and Timberwolves are both expected to score 104+ points and with a 1 point Vegas spread we should see these players get their full complement of minutes.
Utilizing DvP for The Greek Freak is a difficult proposition as he plays all over the floor but as the primary ball-handler, Giannis would be facing a Minnesota team that is 22nd in DvP to opposing PG’s. Giannis has exceed 50+ FanDuel points in five of his last eight games and is well positioned to be the top raw point scorer on the evening!
Jamal Crawford ($4,500) With J.J. Reddick still injured, the Clippers back-court will be a popular value target and most will likely look to Austin Rivers who got the start at SG in their last game.
From a roster construction perspective, I like the idea of targeting the only FanDuel SG eligible player in Jamal Crawford who will come off the bench and dominate usage as a primary scorer. Crawford has 32+ FanDuel points in two of his last four games and although many will simply look at is game log and jump off after his disappointing contests last time out, keep in mind he had 15 field goal attempts in that one so the opportunities remain very high!
UPDATE: Chris Paul has been ruled OUT. Keep an eye on the lineup news but either way Crawford should get major run tonight against the Rockets in a pace up spot for LAC.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Andrew Wiggins ($6,400) On the other side of this Bucks-Wolves match-up I wanted to ensure I had a correlation play to offset by Giannis exposure and Wiggins is the top target here as he gets to face a Bucks team that gives up the third most fantasy points to opposing SF’s.
Wiggins has at least 30 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 9 games and we get the added bonus of getting exposure to one of the tightest starting rotations as the Wolves starting 5 routinely plays 35-40 minutes a night. In a game Vegas has essentially as a pick ’em, we want to ensure we get exposure to the Minnesota starting five!
Danilo Gallinari ($6,200) The Nuggets and Sixers have one of the highest combined team totals on this slate in a game that should be chock full of fantasy points! The Sixers are 23rd in the NBA in fantasy points allowed per game and are ranked 25th against opposing SF’s.
Gallo has played over 30 minutes in each of his last five games and has two double-double performances during that stretch.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($7,200) Hard to believe the price on Jokic was in the $5k range in recent weeks but the recent performance on the Nuggets big man has taken his price to new heights!
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Jokic is coming off back to back 40+ FanDuel points and tonight gets to take on a Philadelphia team that is 23rd in DvP against opposing centers. Jokic’s ability to contribute across the board, including a near triple-double in his last outing, make him one of the highest ceiling GPP plays at the PF position!
Tobias Harris ($6,000) With the move to the Pistons bench, most DFS players have probably forgotten about Tobias Harris but take a look at his performance since his move to the bench! In his last three games, Harris has totaled 34, 33 and 38 FanDuel points and remains one of the most consistent DFS PF plays each night. With Harris leading the Pistons second unit, he is seeing a bump in usage and his fantasy production has steadied to the point where we can lock him in as a 5x floor with 6x ceiling!
DeAndre Jordan ($7,200) With CP3 back for the Clippers we can officially look back to his running mate in DeAndre Jordan! With Clint Capela out with injury, the Rockets will have nobody to match-up with Jordan and I expect this is a spot he should be able to dominate.
In his last game with CP3 back, Jordan put up 13 points, 25 rebounds and 44.5 FanDuel points against New Orleans and this match-up tonight should allow Jordan to continue his recent high level of fantasy output!
UPDATE: With CP3 now ruled OUT – I would pivot away from DeAndre who failed to top 32 FanDuel points in the three games Paul was out. With so much value already opening up at PG between the Clippers and Sixers, you can easily pivot down off Rose or Jackson and use the savings to grab the top dog in Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,100) tonight.
Next: College Football Bowl Season
Good luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter for the latest fantasy roster updates and late breaking news!