Fantasy Baseball Week 13 Buy/Sell: Ixnay on the Ellingerbay

It’s Week 13 and buying/selling ain’t easy. So who should you be including on your fantasy baseball roster as we approach the All-Star break?

Fantasy baseball is a fickle beast.

Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner combined for 19 RBIs this past week. The entire San Diego Padres combined for just 14.

Each week this buy/sell piece poses a new set of challenges, not only to keep the names fresh but to also come up with an interesting title and witty lede. I swear it never used to be this hard, but with baseball all of a sudden becoming a fierce thunderstorm of injuries and unexpected breakouts, it’s almost impossible to know exactly what to cover.

Thank God for Bellinger, though, because when all else fails, he’s the perfect fall back man. Each week he’s providing us with some outlandish stat or challenging ancient historical records, and if you’re like me, you feel kind of stupid for not adding him in your leagues earlier.

Bellinger’s week was obviously pretty special. First rookie to hit 10 HRs in 10 games? Awesome. Doesn’t know who Jerry Seinfeld is? That’s a shame. But how about a first round draft pick in fantasy leagues next season? Yeah, that’s pretty much where we’re at right now.

I asked on Twitter earlier this week which player would have the more productive overall career: Bellinger or Corey Seager? The answers were overwhelmingly in favor of Seags. Seriously, though, Bellinger is on the verge of Mike Trout and Nolan Arenado Mt. Rushmore territory here, and if he hits 40 HRs while keeping his AVG above .250, well, Lord have mercy he’s the unanimous fantasy MVP.

Anyway, Big Bell aside, here’s who you need to wine, dine and buy this week.

Trey Mancini

If Mancini isn’t in your DH spot already, what are you doing? I know there’s plenty of doubters among us, but Mancini’s 1 HR, 5 RBI week proves his production isn’t a one-time thing. He’s showing the plate discipline of a god right now, batting .429 with men in scoring position, and has a .719 SLG against four-seam fastballs. Mancini is easily one of the brightest young stars in the game, and someone I am personally pretty high on. His 99 MPH average exit velocity on pitches thrown in the top half of the zone should convince you to invest in his power.

Jordan Zimmerman

Here we go again. I was pretty much done with Zimmerman prior to this week. His .303 BABIP was way too similar to last season, and I wanted none of that 5.25 ERA – and I’m still not sure if I do! Then again, after a near (okay, kinda near) perfect game last week and 21 strikeouts this month, I can kinda see some value here, especially if you’re after K’s. Supposedly Zimmerman has reverted back to his old slider grip, and it’s been fooling lefties this month – good for a 50% swing rate. He does have a .313 AVG against southpaws, though, so don’t get too carried away just yet.

Tyler Austin

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Another 0-for-4 day for Chris Carter completely shattered the camel’s back. Yankees fans were booing him on Friday night, but I wonder what they’ll do if Tyler Austin goes HAM and slumps for the next three weeks? In his debut on Saturday night vs. the Angels, Austin went 0-for-3 in the seventh spot in the lineup, but on the optimistic side, the youngster did slash .292/.355/.552 with a 151 wRC+ during his AAA stint.

First base can’t make its mind up this season, one minute there’s plenty of options, the next they’re all on the DL. Austin is worth an add since he’s likely to see daily playing time, and in that lineup, he’ll produce some numbers.

Mike Montgomery

I really can’t decide what league format Mike Montgomery is best suited to. It’s largely due to a small sample size, but it’s nice to finally see the Cubs realize he’s worth a spot in their rotation. I really like to admit when I’m right, but I’ll also admit when I’m wrong: I never expected Montgomery to throw six shutout innings against the Padres this week. He doesn’t pose big strikeout potential, but Montgomery gives you innings and quite possibly one other thing that is worth its weight in gold this season: consistency.

Ben Gamel

I watched Gamel tease the Tigers on Tuesday night. He wound up with three hits and a HR in the late innings, and then I realized, Gamel is really good at baseball. In particular, he’s really good against lefties, to the tune of 17 hits, 1 HR, 9 RBIs and a .333 AVG. Tuesday night’s game also marked Gamel’s seventh three-hit game of the season, and even though we’ve been here before with hot-handed Mariners hitters, this looks legit. Gamel’s .463 BABIP certainly won’t stay that high, but his 34.2% hard hit rate makes all of these numbers pretty sustainable.

Jordan Montgomery

Don’t look now at Montgomery’s stats, because they won’t help my argument. Over his last six starts, though, Montgomery’s 13.2% swinging strike rate is third-best in the American League, and he now holds a 2.55 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across his last six starts. Against the Angels last week, Montgomery limited his overall contact to just 63%, a season-low for him so far. His curveball has been dynamic, and he’s beginning to find some better command.

Ian Happ

Ten HRs, .254 AVG, 21 RBIs AND multi-position eligibility? Beats me why Happ is still available in 70% of leagues. The OF/2B still seems to fly under the radar, even after hitting 3 HRs and 5 RBIs this week. It’s reasonable to expect some growing pains ahead, what with a ridiculously high .309 BABIP and a 31.9% K-rate, but Happ’s doing everything right now, even walking.

Franklin Barreto

When the chips are down, the A’s are full of surprises. Barreto should see some solid playing time while Oakland’s middle infielders lick their wounds, and his home run yesterday against the White Sox showed off his power nicely. I know the dinger came against James Shields, but Barreto is someone I’ve been high on forever, and he’s simply worth a short-term add while he stays up in the big leagues. For more info, Brad Kellyhas a nice write-up on what to expect, spoiler alert: it’s a lot of strikeouts.

Nick Vincent

Nine holds and a 1.80 ERA for the Mariners righty so far this season. Vincent hasn’t allowed a run since the 13th of May and has allowed only seven hits in high leverage situations. With the Mariners bullpen a complete mess, they seem to be trusting Vincent more and more. He’s not worth an add in all league formats, but if your league counts holds, go, go, go.

Brandon Drury

Dejavu Drury. Every season he’s relevant for at least a month. It would be nice if the Diamondbacks allowed him consistent playing time so he could turn his flaws into something consistent, but for what it’s worth, Drury’s 4 HR’s and 16 RBI’s this month make him a must start in your lineup. You already know he has crazy multi-position eligibility, but did you know Drury is currently sporting a 91.5% contact rate on pitches thrown inside the zone? Yeah, he’s been that good, and even if he does cool off, Drury is still a solid bench option to play when your starters are resting.

Sell: Avisail Garcia

Yep, ave’-a-sale of Garcia. It’s not that I don’t like what he’s offering, and I don’t even have any numbers to back up why I think you should sell him. In fact, everything he’s doing right now is great – from his much more respectable 21.9% K-rate right down to his .548 SLG.

The reason this is a good idea is due to sustainability. How long can Garcia keep this up? Is his .413 BABIP realistic? And more importantly, what can you get in return?

To answer a question with another question, if you could load Garcia on some poor, uneducated sap and get back, let’s say, Marcell Ozuna or Michael Conforto, wouldn’t you do it?

Next: Is Eric Sogard Worth a Waiver Wire Add?

Garcia is currently 2 HRs shy of his career high total of 13 set in the 2015 season. He’s swinging at a lot more pitches outside of the zone, and even though it’s resulted in some powerful numbers, the ground ball rate of 50.7% is likely to rise in the second half.

So, now is the perfect time to take advantage while the Garcia hype is heavy, and if nothing else, trade him before the strikeouts really begin to pile up.

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