FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 5 Early Slate
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s EarlySlate which kicks off at 1:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday’s Early winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 238.6 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 98 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.4 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 98 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.4 points.
Monday’s Early winning GPP lines essentially boiled down to three key players – two of which were featured in our Picks and Pivots column! First, Jimmy Nelson dominated the right-handed heavy Orioles bats on his way to a 55 FanDuel point performance on the back of 8 K’s over 7 innings. From a hitting perspective, our Pirates core hitter Andrew McCutchen delivered with a double dong July 4th dropping 40.4 FD points and at only 11% ownership was a key difference maker in GPP’s. The third member of the winning trio was Eric Thames who also double donged in a great spot against Ubaldo Jimenez on his way to a similar 40.4 FD point effort.
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (EARLY):
Sonny Gray ($8,600): Normally I tend to overlook these small three game slates but the Wednesday Early Slate is one I actually really like and plan to play across multiple formats. The one arm that stands out above the rest for me is Sonny Gray who gets a home start against a White Sox team he just faced two starts ago and dropped 49 FanDuel points on the back of 7K’s while grabbing the QS/Win.
What really stood out to me in that game was a massive 17.7% swinging strike rate which marked the fourth straight start Gray has at least a 12% metric in that regard. On the other side of this game Sonny Gray will be opposed by Mr. Mike Pelfrey so it is no surprise that Gray is a significant -177 home favorite which makes Gray feel relatively safe while still possessing the upside we need for GPP’s.
The landscape of this slate really drives you to decide between Gray or the arms in Toronto/New York but with that game having a 10 projected run total and significant BvP history for the offenses, I think locking in Gray is not only the safest play but he gives you the upside in this spot facing a White Sox team with a top 10 K rate against RHP this season!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (Early):
Yankees/Blue Jays Game Stack: From a pure roster build perspective taking Sonny Gray as your pitcher allows you the flexibility to stack up the highest projected scoring game any which way you want. The fact that we get Marco Estrada and Micheal Pineda on the hill should make BvP enthusiasts swoon as the opposing offenses of the Yankees and Jays are incredibly familiar with these arms and have had significant success.
The Yankees pummeled Estrada in his last start to the tune of 7 ER’s and Estrada comes into this game struggling with control having surrendered 15 walks in his last 14 innings of work. Gary Sanchez ($3,700) has some serious BvP success going 4 for 8 with 4 home runs against Estrada – seriously read that again. Wow.
Didi Gregorious ($3,200) has gone 6 for 26 with 3 home runs against Estrada and if you are stacking these two then you simply need to add in Aaron Judge ($4,300) as no hitter on this short slate has the daily upside he possesses!
On the Blue Jays side stacking against Pineda is the definition of a boom/bust but the reality is Pineda has fallen back into a pitcher in recent starts that I am comfortable attacking with opposing offenses. In two of his last four starts he has had a swinging strike rate of 8% or lower and has given up 5 ER or more in three of his last six starts including a match-up with this very same Toronto squad.
Pineda is giving up a ton of hard contact (42% or more in three of his last five starts) and I love the correlation stack of the Blue Jays bats in hopes that this game becomes a slug fest! Jose Bautista (3,800) is 6 for 25 lifetime against Pineda with 3 home runs and Ryan Goins ($2,000) is a value BvP play going 4 for 9 with 3 doubles against Pineda.
On small slates like this I am all about taking a stand so I am going to push all my chips in on the NY/Toronto game, flat-out fade the Rays/Cubs and hope Sonny Gray can deliver another big game against the White Sox!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Sonny Gray ($8,600)
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C: Gary Sanchez ($3,700)
1B: Kendrys Morales ($3,000)
2B: Ryan Goins ($2,000)
3B: Josh Donaldson ($3,600)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($3,200)
OF: Jose Bautista ($3,800)
OF: Aaron Judge ($4,800)
OF: Clint Frazier ($2,300)
Slate Overview: On the Early Slate with only three games in play you need to take a stand in GPP’s and plant your flag somewhere – this is not the kind of slate to get cute with multiple entries that hedge against each other and ultimately dilute your profit potential. I am going to build my lines today around the Yankees and Blue Jays offenses which immediately takes the pitchers in those games out of play and leads me to Sonny Gray who gets an exceptional match-up against the White Sox in Oakland. Play light on slates like these but do not overlook the profit potential here on an entertaining three game docket!
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots - Main Slate
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