FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Tuesday July 18
Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!
Monday’s Main Slate winning GPP scores were well below our season average as it took 238 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 108 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 108 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.7 points.
Monday’s Main Slate scores were well below our season average as the slate unfolded with Lance McCullers the overwhelming chalk at 40-50% owned in GPP’s and with a 17 FD point dud, it sunk the majority of the field including us! The offenses across the slate were underwhelming as the night was really less about stacks and more about one-off plays including Giancarlo Stanton who blasted two home runs for 46.9 FanDuel points.
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($12,700): On a full slate like this even having the best pitcher in baseball on the mound in Clayton Kershaw we would normally have legit pivot options that make playing the fade at least something we could consider. Although we do have Robbie Ray and Brad Peacock available, the question comes down to whether or not we should roster Kershaw against the White Sox.
I brought this up in my Friday Picks and Pivots article when James Paxton was on the hill against the White Sox but it is worth repeating – the White Sox are a team that many believe we should not target with LHP but look at the last five lefty starters who have faced Chicago:
- Pomeranz: 52 FanDuel Points and 8 K’s
- Happ: 48 FanDuel points and 9 K’s
- Montgomery: 52 FanDuel points and 8 k’s
- Freeland: 62 FanDuel points and 9 K’s
- Paxton: 49 FanDuel points and 9 K’s
So normal mere mortal lefties are racking up 8-9K’s per outing with 50+ FanDuel points and now I get to roster Clayton Kershaw against them? Kershaw comes into this game pitching at an elite level once again over his last three starts with K totals of 11, 12 and 13 and FanDuel point outings of 64, 67 and 70.
You did not come here for me to tell you that Clayton Kershaw is good at baseball (spoiler alert…he is) and no matter what slate he is on he is always going to be an easy plug and play due to his talent. The question tonight is at nearly $13k, can you build a roster of hitters you like with only $2.9k per batter left over?
Let’s take a look at the hitting options if you want the answer to that!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Hello soft pricing! One of the reasons I think paying up for Kershaw makes sense tonight is that the pricing on FanDuel is soft enough where we can easily pick and choose high-end hitters at relative bargain prices to surround him with!
Texas and Baltimore: The Rangers and Orioles square off again tonight and again have the second highest game total at 10.5, just one run behind Coors Field and after letting down the world last night you know that is when I love to jump back on to games like this!
Dylan Bundy toes the rubber for Baltimore sporting a 1.5 HR/9, 35% hard contact rate and nearly 50% fly ball rate. Splits wise, Bundy sees his K rate drop in half to 12% versus lefties while his hard hit rate rises to 39% so all the left-handed bats for the Rangers are in play here including Nomar Mazara ($3,200), Shin-Soo Choo ($3,200) and Drew Robinson ($2,200).
The fact that Bundy has given up 5 or more ER in three of his last four starts makes this a great spot for a stack and we can target hitters from both sides of the plate with the left-handers having the preferred spot!
Texas will throw out Tyson Ross tonight who has been effective so far this season in a small sample size but with hot temperatures and the wind blowing out, I am perfectly fine with getting some Orioles exposure in this game as well. Ross essentially is a two pitch pitcher at this point, throwing a fastball and slider the majority of the time which actually profiles well for Adam Jones ($3,100) and Chris Davis ($2,900) who are priced at levels that work perfectly in this roster build!
Arizona in Great American Ball Park: The Diamondbacks will head to Cincinnati to take on Sal Romano, a mediocre right-hander making his third career start. There is nothing in his minor league numbers that frankly stand out and in one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball, this game has some incredible value plays.
David Peralta ($3,000) and Chris Herrmann ($2,100) are both exceptional values on this slate but the player I am most excited about is Jake Lamb ($3,400) who is simply priced way too low for his upside against a right-hander in a hitter’s park!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
- Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl and why
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
P: Clayton Kershaw ($12,700)
C: Chris Herrmann ($2,100)
1B: Chris Davis ($2,900)
2B: Drew Robinson ($2,200)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,400)
SS: Stephen Drew ($2,200)
OF: Shin-Soo Choo ($3,200)
OF: Nomar Mazara ($3,200)
OF: Adam Jones ($3,100)
Slate Overview: The breakdown of this slate is simple – can you roster Kershaw and still feel confident in the bats you are building around? For me the answer is a resounding yes as the pricing in some of the top hitting spots on the slate are simply too low considering the upside. By finding 2-3 value plays like Herrmann or Robinson, you have the ability to lock in Kershaw AND stack the Texas lefties, Baltimore power bats AND lock in Jake Lamb in Great American pall park! I simply see no reason to fade Kershaw in this spot as I can capture elite upside with my hitters even with his near $13k salary!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2lockSports on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!