DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA Preview

SOUTHPORT, ENGLAND – JULY 17: Champion Golfer of 2016 Henrik Stenson of Sweden returns the Claret Jug to R DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA /

DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA Preview

As we pass the mid way point of the 2017 season, we welcome in the third major of the year, the Open Championship. Also known as the “British Open”, this year’s event will be played at Royal Birkdale, in Southport, England. Located on near the coast, in North West England, Birkdale will play as a typical links style course and be susceptible if any winds pick up. The Open Championship will revisit Birkdale for the tenth time, but it’s been awhile, as its last appearance was in 2008. Given that it’s been close to 10 years since the last time an event was played here, we may not have much course history to work with but let’s get into the DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA picks!

As mentioned earlier, Royal Birkdale will play as a typical links style course, and will favor more accurate golfers. Golfers that spray it off the tee will be in trouble not only due to wind conditions, but also due to the penalizing rough. As winds are known to change at the flip of a hat, I would monitor the weather up until lineup lock, but feel safe saying the more accurate golfers, with a low ball flight, should excel here.

As always, I’ll be picking out a few statistical categories to analysis this week, those being: recent form, vegas odds, driving accuracy, birdie score, adjusted round scoring, greens in regulation, strokes gained on approach, salary changes, and ownership. These are just some of the many, but a few of potentially more importance.

Quick Notes:

I’ll favor those that played in the Scottish Open or who were across the pond earlier, over those that played in the John Deere Classic. Even with first class traveling, I think it can negatively effect an athlete
DraftKings pricing is much weaker this week
DraftKings will offer a Millionaire Maker, and I’ll be focusing on ownership as a main component when building tournament lineups

DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA Recent Form:

LONDONDERRY, NORTHERN IRELAND – JULY 09: Tommy Fleetwood of England hits his second shot on the 2nd hole during the final round of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Portstewart Golf Club on July 9, 2017 in Londonderry, Northern Ireland. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images) /

Tommy Fleetwood – $9800

Don’t be surprised to see Tommy Fleetwood’s name everywhere when scrolling through lineups on Thursday morning. Fleetwood should be one of the highest owned golfers this week, given his recent form. Fleetwood is coming off of four straight top 10 or better finishes. These include, the Irish Open (10th), the Open de France (1st), the BMW International Open (6th), and the U.S. Open (4th). Fleetwood leads the field in the GIR scoring, as he’s hit 73.1% of greens in regulation. Given the ownership, he may be worth a fade in tournaments, but should be heavily considered in cash games.

Brian Harman – $6600

Brian Harman is a bit more sneaky, and offers some impressive recent performances, as well. Harman is coming off of a nice outing at the John Deere Classic, with a 10 place finish. This name may sound familiar, as he also had a 2nd place finish at this year’s U.S. Open. Harman doesn’t offer anything special, but he’s a solid cut maker, who has been playing well, and is extremely cheap on DraftKings.

Others in good recent form: Hoffman, Lahiri, Snedeker, Haas, Matsyuama, Finau, Howell, Poulter

DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA Value Plays:

SOUTHPORT, ENGLAND – JULY 18: Rickie Fowler of the United States hits his approach shot on the 10th hole during a practice round prior to the 146th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale on July 18, 2017 in Southport, England. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images) /

Rickie Fowler – $9200

I would be surprised if Rickie Fowler is not the highest owned golfer in the Millionaire Maker this week. Fowler has been playing excellent golf of late, including 9th, 3rd, and 5th place finishes in his last three outings. Vegas has given Fowler a 5.9% chance of winning, the next best doesn’t come until John Rahm, all the way up at $11,400. While he should be auto locked in your cash games, if you’re a game theory player, he could be faded.

Matt Kuchar – $7200

Matt Kuchar is another golfer that stands out as a mispricing, relative to his Vegas odds. Kuchar has a 1.8% chance to win, much higher than anyone priced around him. Kuchar is coming off of a 4th place finish at the Scottish Open and like Rickie, I’d expect Kuchar to be one of the highest owned golfers. Kuchar is known for his cut making, however, he often falls short of winning due to his lack of length off of the tee. This course should set up perfectly for him, as he is a more accurate golfer, hitting 66.2% of fairways, and his lack of length won’t hurt him as much.

Other underpriced golfers: Casey, Noren, Garcia, Snedeker, Schwartzel, Cabrera-Bello, Berger

DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA Putting Variance:

SOUTHPORT, ENGLAND – JULY 18: Dustin Johnson of the United States lines up a putt during a practice round prior to the 146th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale on July 18, 2017 in Southport, England. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Dustin Johnson – $12000

Dustin Johnson isn’t known for his putting, but it’s been exceptionally worse over his last two appearances. Johnson is an interesting case, as I think his ownership will come in much lower than people expect, but no one really knows which DJ will show up. Will it be the one who dominated at the beginning of the year, or what he’s shown more recently? I’m not ready to fully endorse him, but he is a putter that could see positive regression. In the last six weeks, he’s averaged 32.5 putts per round, this is a 3.5 putt per round difference from his yearly average of 29 putts per round.

Others putters that could positively regress: Vegas, Dufner, Woodland, Moore, Noren

DraftKings Open Championship DFS PGA Salary Changes:

SILVIS, IL – JULY 16: Daniel Berger watches his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 16, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Daniel Berger – $6700

This price makes zero sense to me. Berger is coming off of 5th place finish at the John Deere Classic and a 2nd place finish at the Travelers Championship before that. Recent form is usually priced into players salaries, but for some reason Berger stands out as golfer that is extremely underpriced.

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He is a younger golfer, lacking some of the experience that others may have at Open Championships and will be traveling after playing in the John Deere, but Berger has been one of the top players on tour this year. His long-term adjusted round score is 68.8, the 17th best in this field. It would appear that Vegas would agree, given that he has a 1.3% chance of winning, higher than many golfers in this price range.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $6700

Rafael Cabrera-Bello has an even better Vegas projection, as he has a 1.6% chance to win, for the same price. Cabrera-Bello is a European golfer who should fair well, as he’s known more for his accuracy, rather than length. Cabrera-Bello has hit 70.2% of GIR this year. I always look to target golfers who receive price decreases where we wouldn’t expect them and RCB is a perfect case. While he’s obviously been priced higher in tournaments with weaker fields, we can look back to the U.S. Open, where he was priced at $7400. This would lead me to believe that we can get RCB at a discount this week.

Others receiving salary changes: Molinari, Kisner, Fowler

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