FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Thursday August 17
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!
The winning GPP line-up on Wednesday put up scores just above the season average with 278.8 FanDuel points. Over the first 133 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.8 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 133 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.8 points.
Wedneday’s Main Slate winning rosters were a little bit of chalk and little bit of pivots as we had some “lock” plays go down in flames which opened the door in tournaments. The obvious play on the day was Yu Darvish in the perfect spot against the White Sox but after only managing 2 K’s and 19 FanDuel points, his performance was a painful reminder that there is no sure thing in the variance that is DFS baseball. Marcus Stroman (44 FanDuel points) at less than 10% ownership was the key pitcher to utilize and the “chalk” Rangers stack went off as predicted with home runs from Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
The “obvious” play on the three game Early Slate is Carlos Carrasco ($9,600) who gets the start here after a rain postponement pushed his start against the Twins to this afternoon. Carrasco has the highest K rate and swinging strike rate on the early slate and as a -166 road favorite this is going to be the clear chalk place to go today.
We saw yesterday on a three game Early Slate that the obvious plays (Cole/Nelson) drew roughly 60-75% of the ownership combined and we can expect massive ownership today for Carrasco which leaves me to focus on potential pivot plays for tournaments on this slate.
The one arm that stands out to me is Astros RHP Mike Fiers ($7,400) who gets a sneaky good strikeout spot at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona has some premier hitters in the heart of their line-up which leads most DFS players to shy away from attacking them but we have seen the Astros starters the last two nights (Peacock/Morton) each rack up 9 K’s against this Arizona line-up so the K upside is VERY VERY real.
For the season Arizona’s projected line-up has a strikeout rate of 24.1% however over the last month that number has spiked to 25.6% which is Tampa Bay/Milwaukee territory, two common DFS targets for GPP’s.
One thing to keep in mind as well, with a day game today we could see a watered down Arizona line-up which has been the case throughout the season so if any of the big 4 (Pollock, JD, Goldy, Lamb) are sitting, this would significantly boost Fiers value in my eyes. You may not think of Fiers as a high upside arm but this is a guy who has put up 55 and 58 FanDuel points over his last six starts and with the potential for K’s today he could be looking at a score that outduels Carrasco for $2k cheaper!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Spots on Early Slate:
Wrigley Field: As of this writing we have no team totals or Vegas information for the Cubs/Reds but with the wind projected to be blowing straight out at 15-20 MPH, we can expect some big projections, lofty expectations and high ownership. On a three game slate this is the premier spot for offense and will be at the core of my line-up build for the Early Slate.
Although Scott Feldman is not a bad pitcher, this is not someone we should be afraid of in this spot considering he gave up 5 ER’s in 2.2 IP in his last start in Chicago this season. Feldman’s splits show a 1.64 HR/9 to left-handed batters with a 35.5% hard contact rate so this is where I believe your focus should be on the Cubs offense! Anthony Rizzo ($4,000) is the premier play here and Kyle Schwarber ($3,100) leads the team in ISO versus RHP so we can target both of these bats for home-runs against Feldman today!
On the other side of this game we get Jon Lester who has a ton of history with the Reds line-up and with all the focus on the Cubs bats we may be able to get the same elite hitting conditions for the Reds at lower ownership! Billy Hamilton ($3,600) owns Jon Lester in his career going 7 for 16 with 2 home runs and 6 steals against him and is an elite play as a one-off or as part of a Reds stack. Zack Cozart ($3,400), Eugenio Suarez ($3,400) and Adam Duvall ($3,800) all have ISO’s over .250 against LHP with .400+ wOBA’s so a full on Reds stack is firmly in play today as a pivot off the chalkier Cubs bats!
Houston versus Patrick Corbin: I expect the majority of the early focus to be on the wind in Wrigley as the day gets going so getting some exposure to the Astros RHB versus Patrick Corbin may be a way to pivot off the field!
Corbin on the season has only an 18% K rate versus RHB this season, is giving up 1.4 HR/9 and 34% hard contact so the Astros bats are all in play here today! George Springer ($4,000) has a team leading .310 ISO and .449 wOBA against RHB and Jose Altuve ($4,200) is not far behind as the clear top dog at the 2B position today. In large field tournaments, mixing in Houston stacks/mini-stacks with Wrigley is a great way to differentiate yourself from those who go all in on the Cubs and Reds bats!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
P: Mike Fiers ($7,400)
C: Yan Gomes ($2,100)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,000)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,000)
3B: Eugenio Suarez ($3,400)
SS: Zack Cozart ($3,400)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($3,600)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,800)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($3,100)
Slate Overview: On this three game slate there are going to be some very clear chalk plays with Carlos Carrasco on the mound and the Cubs bats against Scott Feldman with the wind blowing out and the reality is they are all good plays but in tournaments we need to find viable pivot options and I believe we have some very good ones for a short slate! Remember you do not need to go crazy off the wall on short slates like this – you can choose roster Carlos Carrasco and then be different on your bats or go all in on the Cubs and pivot away at pitcher – the margin of error on these short slates when it comes to the cash line is SO small so paying attention to the details is important and every roster position should be thought about carefully!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick for Main Slate:
Edwin Jackson ($7,500): Wait, where are you going? No I am not kidding, I actually think Edwin Jackson is a good play. Please stop trying to hit back on your browser and hear me out!
The Main Slate is only five games tonight and at first glance I think all the pitching focus will be on Luis Severino ($9,400), Aaron Nola ($9,900) and Jeff Samardzija ($8,900), likely in that order, but I think a case can be made for dropping down in tournaments and taking a shot on the Nationals right-hander in Petco against the Padres.
Jackson is a guy I found myself targeting hitters against when he first game back but over the last three games we are seeing a different pitcher as he has a near 28%K rate over his last three starts and has put up a 13% swinging strike rate in two of his last three starts (against the Cubs and Rockies) with 40 or more FanDuel points in two of his last three outings.
What has really been interesting to see in this stretch is the significant increase in Jackson’s ground ball rate (39% YTD) as over the last three games it has increased from 41% to 47% to 55% in his last start. In a spacious ballpark like Petco we always have more flexibility with our pitchers but the added “security” of an increased GB rate should suit him well in this match-up.
There is obvious risk in this pick but there is significant profit potential at this price point and the $2k+ savings allows you to build a loaded offensive unit which could be the difference on a small slate like this!
FanDuel MLB – Top Main Slate Hitting Stacks:
New York Yankees versus LHP Steven Matz: As a Mets fan it has been painfully evident that Matz is struggling to find his footing each and every start and having to take on the Yankees tonight is not a spot where I expect he will suddenly see a change in his outlook!
Right-handed batters have a .253 ISO and .377 wOBA against Matz this season so firing up Aaron Judge ($4,300) and his team leading .301 ISO tonight is step #1 in my roster build. I am still in awe of the upper deck blast that Judge hit last night and with home runs in two of his last three games we could be seeing another hot streak for the Yankee slugger!
Todd Frazier ($3,400) is a great correlation play with Judge in this spot as his .277 ISO is the second best mark on this Yankee team versus LHP while also having success against Matz going 2 for 9 with 2 home runs in his career! If Aaron Hicks ($3,300) is sitting in front of Judge in the order tonight he is another lefty masher who has a .227 ISO and .373 wOBA and allows you a nice middle of the order Yankee right-handed stack!
Texas Rangers: Looks like another day of Rangers chalk! With another high team total and Reynaldo Lopez on the hill, the Rangers bats are firmly back in play today with the best hitting environment on the board!
In his short career, Lopez has been able to limit the damage versus RHB (0 HR in 22 IP) but the lefties have tagged him for 36% hard contact and 2 HR/9 and the Rangers line-up is absolutely LOADED with left-handed power!
Joey Gallo ($3,800), Rougned Odor ($3,100) and Nomar Mazara ($3,600) are the prime plays here with Gallo being a must play for me as his .363 ISO against right-handed pitching this season screams double-dong upside which could single handily win you a tournament on any slate!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
- Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl and why
P; Edwin Jackson ($7,500)
C: Robinson Chirinos ($2,700)
1B: Joey Gallo ($3,800)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,100)
3B: Todd Frazier ($3,400)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($3,200)
OF: Aaron Judge ($4,300)
OF: Aaron Hicks ($3,300)
OF: Nomar Mazara ($3,600)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate to me is all about offense and I am going to prioritize getting as many Yankee and Ranger bats into my line-up as possible. With all the focus on the top three priced pitchers we can drop down to an arm like Edwin Jackson in a great match-up against San Diego and load up on the bats with the $2k savings we get by making that choice!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we break down each day’s DFS slates for MLB and bring our DFS picks for NFL Preseason and Premier League action!