NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 2 Top Picks and Plays

BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 7: Tom Brady NFL DFS /

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 2

Well thankfully, week one is over and we can move on with our NFL DFS lives. After a week where the top wide receivers couldn’t score, the top running backs looked non-existent, and defenses outscored most quarterbacks, we are on to week two. I’m not going to lie, I don’t like this card at all, but there are still a few spots that I’ll aim to highlight.

The goal of this piece each week is to dive into the top underpriced value plays, appealing matchups, and some slate hot takes to get you best prepare for the week. As our Picks and Pivots writer, Brian Tulloch mentions each week, it is always helpful to look at the Vegas totals as a starting point when breaking down a slate, especially early on in the season!

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 9/14):

New England – 31.25, Oakland – 28.5, Atlanta – 28.5, Seattle 28, Kansas City 26.5

NFL DFS: Underpriced Values:

Marqise Lee – JAC (WR) – DK $3800

USC alum, Marqise Lee, will be thrust into a new role, as Allen Robinson has been ruled out with a torn ACL. This is simply a numbers play, as Lee is far cheaper on DraftKings, compared to FanDuel. He’s not the safest play, with Bortles under center, but he should see an increase in targets and has a advantageous matchup against the Tennessee secondary.

Coby Fleener – NO (TE) – DK $3100

Coby Fleener seemed to be the biggest beneficiary of the Willie Snead suspension, as he recorded five receptions on six targets, for 54 yards and a touchdown. Fleener struggled with drops last season, but could see a jump in efficiency as he may have built a better report with Brees. In what should be a high scoring affair, it will be important to monitor the status of line backer Dont’a Hightower. Hightower is the foundation of the New England defense, and without him, the middle of the field becomes the most susceptible part of the defense.

Matt Ryan – ATL (QB) – FD $8200

While quarterback ownership if usually spread out, Matt Ryan should be the highest owned, given his discounted price on FanDuel. Ryan is in what seems to be a bounce back spot, at home, facing the Packers secondary. While Green bay’s defense held their own against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, I’m not buying this secondary one bit. Given me Julio Jones, back on turf, against the likes of Damarious Randall, Davon House, and Quinten Rollins.

Jordan Reed – WSH (TE) – FD $6400

Jordan Reed had a relatively quite week, as the Washington offense failed to get much going, but he has seen a price decrease on FanDuel this week. Reed’s price has dropped $500, and he’s very underpriced, given he’s arguably one of the best talents at the position. You’ll need to monitor his toe injury closely, but Reed should be Washington’s top target near the end zone.

NFL DFS: Matchups to Exploit:

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – SEPTEMBER 11: Stefon Diggs /

Stefon Diggs vs. Joe Haden

Joe Haden, formerly a top coverage corner back, will have to deal with Stefon Diggs this week as the Vikings roll into Heinz field. Like many, I still held the notion that Haden was a defensive back to be feared, but Pro Football Focus analyst, Scott Barrett, tossed out this nugget earlier this week,

Among all 78 CBs >999 snaps (2014-2016) Joe Haden ranks:

PFF Grade: 8th-worst
Passer Rating: 3rd-worst
PPR/Tgt: 2nd-worst
PPR/Route: worst
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 13, 2017

I am a bit hesitant to pull the trigger, given the Sam Bradford injury news, and this total that continues to slide down, but Diggs should be able to get what he wants against Haden this week.

Tyreke Hill vs. Jalen Mills

What was the glaring issue with this Eagles defense got a whole lot worse last week. Newly acquired Ronald Darby went down with an ankle injury, now making this one of the best pass defenses to target. Jalen Mills was one of the worst ranked corner backs in the league last year, and will now be tasked with keeping the speedster, Tyreke Hill, in check. I’m not expecting a performance like last week in Foxborough, but with the Chiefs returning home, this matchup looks enticing.

NFL DFS: Hot Takes:

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – SEPTEMBER 11: Drew Brees /

Like I said, I really don’t like the games this week, so I’ll just toss out a few quick convictions that may sway from the norm.

New Orleans covers the spread and keeps the game close

After an awful prime time showing, the public, which would be betting New England anyway, has come out in droves to balloon this line out to seven in some places. I think the Saints, returning to the dome, keep this game close.

Desean Jackson scores over 20 DraftKings points

Chicago was able to keep Julio Jones in check last week in what seems to be a trend in recent Chicago defenses. In general, the Bears have forced opposing teams to beat them with their second and third options. I think Tampa Bay struggles to run the ball, Chicago takes away Mike Evans, and other passing targets like Jackson eat.

Miami and LA goes over the posted total

We constantly hear this out of Miami, but all week the news has been that they will be a no huddle team. Adam Gase likes to go fast, and if Miami can push the pace, this game will have the potential to shootout. Here’s a direct quote pulled from the Miami Herald.

“A lot of our offense is no huddle,” receiver Jarvis Landry said Thursday. “We just decide to slow it down. We’re not really a huddle team. We’re a no huddle team that decides to huddle when we want to. That’s a better way to put it.”

Cam Newton is a top five QB this week

Newton did not look good last week. Was it the injury? Is he just actually not as good as we think? I’m not sure, but what I am sure of is that this total has moved up a full point and Carolina has moved a half of a point, despite only receiving 31% of the betting tickets.

Next: FanDuel Week 2 NFL Picks and Pivots

Good luck in all your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your fantasy football news and analysis as we get you set for Week 2 in the NFL!