Blue Jays Acquire Randal Grichuk: Fantasy Impact

The Blue Jays continue to modify their roster to compete in the AL East. How does the move affect Randal Grichuk’s fantasy value?

The Toronto Blue Jays have revamped their offense with a few trades this offseason. After adding Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte earlier this month, the front office struck another deal with the St. Louis Cardinals and acquired outfielder Randal Grichuk. After a down year, can he rebound in his new home in the American League East?

Grichuk was drafted in the 18th round in ESPN standard leagues, 176.9 ADP. He finished 94th among outfielders on the Player Rater, right in front of his new teammate Curtis Granderson.

If you look at Grichuk’s batted ball and plate discipline profiles, his numbers don’t reflect the improvements he made. Grichuk lowered his ground ball, swinging strike, first-pitch strike and O-Swing rates. He improved his line-drive, HR/FB and contact rates.

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Moving to the AL East should help his contact while maintaining his power. Two stadiums ranked in the top three for home runs and two others ranked in the top 10 for hits.

I also think the AL East doesn’t feature the best starting pitchers. Sure, there are the top performers like Chris Sale (No. 3) and Luis Severino (No. 6). But the bottom drops out after that. After those two, the next rated AL East pitcher was Drew Pomeranz at No. 23. The bullpens, on the other hand, feature some elite talents.

Grichuk is expected to hit in the bottom-third of the batting order. He will have chances to get his pitches and make good contact but the opportunity to score runs may not be there. Then again, runs and RBIs are team-based and cannot be predicted just like wins for a pitcher.

Grichuk had a good rookie season back in 2015. In 103 games, he hit 17 home runs, 47 RBI and a .276 average. The power can always be gained but seeing a decent batting average is always nice from a young player.

Unfortunately, it didn’t long as Grichuk sacrificed his contact for more power. Over the last two seasons, he averaged 23 home runs, 64 RBI and a .239/.287/.477 line. He looks like just another 20-plus home-run hitter with a low batting average.

The Cardinals outfield will now feature Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler, a completely different unit than what the team had last year. I like all three at different points in the draft. Ozuna should still have his power. Pham had power along with contact and speed. Fowler can hit double-digit home runs with a .260 average.

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Grichuk will likely be the starting right fielder with Granderson manning left field and Kevin Pillar in center. Steve Pearce is the fourth outfielder on the team and could be looming if Grichuk gets hurt or struggles again. However, I don’t think that will happen in Toronto. He’s worth drafting as a high-end OF5.

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