DraftKings PGA: The Open Championship Picks and Analysis

CARNOUSTIE, SCOTLAND – APRIL 24: A view of The Claret Jug for The Open Championship media day at Carnoustie Golf Links on April 24, 2018 in Carnoustie, Scotland. The 147th Open Championship will take place at Carnoustie between 19th-22nd July 2018 (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: The Open Championship

We are less than a week from The Open Championship at Carnoustie. The third major of the year (The Masters and US Open) and the field is almost set. Only a few spots remain to be filled by the John Deere Classic and Scottish Open. But you do not have to wait for those tournaments to end to start doing research. Just like the golfers, the preparation never stops! The Open Championship has an added element to it, because we have to rely on data from the European Tour and the PGA Tour. Many of us have never heard of guys like Jorge Campillo, who is ranked 71st in the world, but because he does not play in the US we do not know he exists. So lets start researching.

Carnoustie could play Car-nasty. The course is not that dissimilar to Shinnecock Hills, in the sense that it is a coastal links course. Meaning that wind will be a major determinant of the final score after 72 holes. Carnoustie is your prototypical Open Championship course. Pot bunkers, fescue-lined fairways, iconic hazards (Berry “burn”), and it is an Old Tom Morris design. Pretty darn authentic.

Carnoustie will be hosting its 8th Open Championship, with the most recent being in 1999 and 2007. In 2007, Padraig Harrington hit two balls into the burn on the 72nd hole to limp into a playoff with Sergio Garcia. Padraig (-7) won that playoff. 1999 had a similar 72nd hole meltdown, where Jean Van de Velde hit into the burn once but still ended up making 7. Van de Velde lost in a three way playoff to Paul Lawrie (+6). I am hoping those dramatics are setting the stage for another dramatic finish at in the 2018 edition at Carnoustie.

The Course and Stats

Carnoustie will play 7,402 yards this year, which is down 19 yards from the 2007 edition. The course is a par-71 and 7/13 par-4’s measure over 460 yards. Those distances may be somewhat deceiving, as the sandy fairways will likely run hard and fast. While bombers always have somewhat of an advantage, precision will not be overlooked on this course. The wind is going to play havoc, and stray tee-shots will nestle in the fescue. Going along with the accuracy theme, the majority of rounds will not break par. In the previous two Open Championship’s at Carnoustie only 19 golfers have finished the tournament under par.

The keys stats that I am focusing on this week for The Open Championship DraftKings PGA GPP contests:

Tee to Green Gained

Approach Gained

Scoring Gained

Par-4 Gained

Fairways Gained

Scrambling Gained

As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.]

The Open Championship – Elite Golfers

In my opinion, these three golfers have the best shot of winning the tournament or finishing in the top 10. I will be overweight on this crew and so should you.

$11,300 Dustin Johnson

Dustin Johnson is the best play on the board. He is 13/13 on cuts, has 2 wins, and has 2 top 10’s at majors this year. DJ leads the field in Scoring, Par-4 and tee-to-green gained. Johnson has made 8 consecutive cuts at the Open Championship, with 3 top 10’s.

$10,200 Justin Rose

The only golfer playing as well as Dustin Johnson this year has been Justin Rose. Rose is 13/13 on made cuts, has 2 wins, and he has 8/13 top 10’s. He ranks second in the field in scoring and par-4 gained, behind only Dustin Johnson. Rose has 4 consecutive made cuts at The Open, with one top 10.

$8,200 Henrick Stenson

Stenson may scare people off due to his withdrawal from the Scottish Open, but I welcome the withdrawal. Stenson has made 10/11 cuts with a 5 and a 6 at this year’s majors. He ranks number 1 in my model and his tournament form is the best in the field. Stenson won the event in 2016 and has 8 consecutive made cuts, 4 of which were top 10’s.

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, WV – JULY 8 : Kevin Na kisses the trophy after winning the A Military Tribute At The Greenbrier held at the Old White TPC course on July 8, 2018 in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

The Open Championship – Core Golfers

These golfers are too good and too cheap not to be in your core. Ownership be damned, just be overweight to the field.

$8,800 Jason Day

Day may not be striking the ball amazing this year, but he is still the best putter in the world. Day is the type of grinder that I love on courses like this. He champions the wind, and he is an excellent scrambler (2nd in the field). Day has been money in the Open Championship, making all 7/7 cuts with one top 10.

$8,500 Patrick Reed

So far this season Patrick Reed has placed 1st and 4th in the two majors. That is probably enough information to blindly throw him into a lineup. However, the stats are telling me that this is a Patrick Reed course. Grinding out pars and timely birdies is Patrick Reed’s MO. I trust him to limit the big numbers, but if his irons catch fire he will notch his 2nd major victory of the season.

$7,000 Kevin Na

Na is coming off of his second career victory and will be lacing up the spikes to exploit Carnoustie. Na is a short-game extraordinaire. He may be the best around-the-green golfer in the world, and his putter is hot fire right now. During the rain delay at The Greenbrier, Na said that he figured out something that he was doing wrong in his putting stroke. Then he proceeded to beat the field by 5 strokes. Na has 4 consecutive cuts at The Open Championship, and he might be my highest owned golfer this week.

Next: PGA DFS Golf - The Open Championship DRAFT Rankings and Analysis

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