The last month of the college football season is always important. That said, the College Football Playoff field could already be decided, or at the very least have some answers before we reach the final month of the season. These 12 games between now and Week 10 will have the most implications on the College Football Playoff field. If there are repeat teams on this list, it’s because their schedule is brutal and one of those games could be their Achilles heel. If your team isn’t on this list, that doesn’t mean they won't play significant games either.
Here’s a look at all the games in the first two months of the season that will determine which teams will have a crack at a national championship.
Week 2 games with College Football Playoff implications
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 16 Michigan Wolverines
The season is still young, and by Week 2 we’ll already have a matchup that could make the College Football Playoff selection committee's job either easier or harder. Whether Michigan or Oklahoma wins this game won’t have too much of an impact on the CFP field just yet. Now in roughly a month when the first CFP rankings roll out, this could very well be a massive game the committee points to.
Michigan has four preseason top 10 opponents on their schedule right now and also has to play No. 18 Penn State and No. 22 Iowa. They’ll have more than enough chances to rebuild their resume if they lose, but this will be their first test. The fewer top 10 wins they have, the more excuses the CFP committee has to omit them.
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Games this early usually don’t have a massive impact on the CFP field. In Texas’ case, they were left on the outside of the CFP field a year ago, and you could argue the 14-7 loss (among some other suspect performances) to Ohio State affected their standing with the CFP selection committee. This year, they host Ohio State in Austin, which means losing to a top-ranked team at home won’t be ideal either.
This is a game that just like last year, we’ll look back and say, “What if?” Ohio State has a lot to worry about in this game because a loss makes their return to the CFP a bit tougher. Whoever loses this game has a smaller margin for error the rest of the way.
Week 3 games with College Football Playoff implications
No. 19 SMU Mustangs at No. 24 Louisville Cardinals
The ACC is chaotic, to say the least. The conference’s champion from last year didn’t even make the CFP, yet Miami was able to reach the national championship game. Though I expect Miami to dominate the conference this year, a lot can happen to decide the ACC’s representative in the CFP. SMU and Louisville are preseason favorites to contend for one of the 12 seeds. As the season progresses, if these two teams are still in the mix, this game will be the deciding factor for one of these teams. SMU and Louisville each have minimal chances to regain traction later in the year.
No. 11 LSU Tigers at No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels
The Lane Kiffin Bowl if you will. This game is every bit as emotional as it is important for the College Football Playoff race. The CFP selection committee will be looking for any reason to trim the potential SEC suitors, as any team with a winning record will probably be in contention for an at-large bid. Now, I’m being a bit facetious, but the point is these early-season games are important. Kiffin has a mountain of pressure to get LSU into the CFP for the first time since 2019 and a clash against his former team could be an early deciding factor.
Week 4 games with College Football Playoff implications
No. 2 Oregon Ducks at No. 14 USC Trojans
Lincoln Riley is in a difficult situation at USC. He’s been there since 2022 and the Trojans haven’t sniffed the CFP yet. He may not be on the hot seat per se, but his top-ranked recruiting class will have to prove he’s the right coach to bring national recognition back to Southern Cal. This game against Oregon will give the CFP selection committee everything they need to know about USC. If the Trojans can hang with Oregon and even win, it’s a boost to their CFP resume. The Trojans have a loaded schedule that features Ohio State, Indiana, Washington and Penn State. That’s a lot of chances for Riley to prove USC is back and games like these will either validate that or put him on fraud alert.
No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 11 LSU Tigers
No one said Kiffin’s first year at LSU was going to be easy and the fact that the Tigers are on this list again goes to show just how loaded the SEC is in 2026. This matchup is less about LSU and more about Texas A&M. The Aggies had a favorable schedule last year and it cost them an embarrassing loss to Miami in the first round of the CFP last year – and an even worse loss to Texas to end the regular season. This is the type of game the committee will use as a reason to keep a team out of the CFP. Texas A&M can’t afford to lose this game, especially with how difficult their schedule is to end the year.
No. 5 Texas Longhorns at No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee didn’t make the CFP last year after their season fell apart. Texas is their first ranked opponent of the season. With the others scattered around the rest of their slate, this is an important game. If Tennessee wants to return to the CFP, this is a game they need to win. Their schedule helps them out with Texas A&M as their only ranked, road opponent this year. Texas has a point to prove this season, which makes Tennessee’s road to the CFP a bit tougher. Win here and not only could they potentially end Texas’ playoff bid, but also bolster their own.
Week 6 games with College Football Playoff implications
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide
The Georgia-Alabama game was always going to make this list. This game will have a bit more significance, as Keelon Russell will get his first taste of Georgia’s feared defensive line. Kalen DeBoer felt Russell was the better option over Austin Mack and this game will prove if Russell’s good enough to bring Bama a national championship or not. Georgia doesn’t have a loaded schedule, with this being one of four ranked games for them. The Bulldogs haven’t struggled much in the regular season, so a slip-up against Bama could spell trouble for their CFP bid.
No. 5 Texas Longhorns at No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (Red River Rivalry)
The Red River Rivalry got a lot more interesting once Texas and Oklahoma moved to the SEC. Last year, it was the game that started Oklahoma’s downfall that almost cost them a spot in the CFP. This year, I’m sure John Mateer is looking for revenge. Texas’ schedule is brutal this season, having already played Tennessee and Ohio State by Week 6. The Longhorns almost certainly need a win here or it will feel less like redemption and more like deja vu from last season.
Week 7 games with College Football Playoff implications
Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave
At least one Group of 6 game was going to sneak up on this list and you bet Memphis and Tulane in Week 7 will be another defacto CFP elimination game for the Tigers. They passed their first test, beating UNLV in a Week 0 road clash. They’ll have many more, as they’ll need an undefeated season and conference championship to get into the CFP. Tulane reached the CFP a year ago. Even though they lost a lot from last year’s team, they have a solid team in 2026. The winner of this game —depending on each team’s record at this point — will have the edge in the G6 race to the CFP. The loser? Well, they can still finish the year strong, even knowing the CFP race is pretty much over.
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 14 BYU Cougars
Notre Dame and BYU were two of the first teams out of the CFP last year, so naturally they play each other this year. This game is not only a chance for Notre Dame to get a ranked win but also a shot at the committee to force them to take head-to-head games seriously this year. The winner of this game will have the advantage if both teams are on the bubble again. BYU was a Big 12 title game away from getting into the CFP. They’ll need this win more than Notre Dame.
Week 8 games with College Football Playoff implications
No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 16 Michigan Wolverines
It’s hard to get a read on Indiana. On one hand, why doubt them after last year? But it’s also hard to believe they continue to reload year after winning a national championship, right? Either way, this will be a game that will show us if Indiana is the real deal or not. More than that, Kyle Whittingham will have to prove he’s not in over his head at Michigan. The Wolverines have a loaded schedule this season, including playing the top two teams in the preseason AP top 25 poll. After a clash with Indiana, the Wolverines will still have Oregon and Ohio State to play. This game will either ignite their playoff hopes or squander them before the season’s over.
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