Notre Dame has high expectations for its 2026-27 season and for good reason. The Associated Press is on the same page, ranking the Fighting Irish the No. 4 team in the country in its preseason poll. When you glance at the roster, the schedule and the circumstances surrounding the program's motivations, fans should also see a championship or bust campaign.
For the doubters, let's dive in to a few reasons why you should believe in Notre Dame this year. The numbers are rather convincing and despite the slight inaccuracy of predictive models, the Irish feel like a pretty safe bet to at least back reaching the College Football Playoff after missing last year. Although, there's a pretty good chance they make go all the way just two years removed from being national runners up.
The Irish return the most production in the nation
Notre Dame returns a whopping 72 percent of its overall production from the 2025 season including 14 starters. That leads the entire country and it's the main reason the Irish are considered the best defense in the game, anchored by All-American cornerback Leonard Moore (five interceptions last year). Head coach Marcus Freeman scoured the transfer portal for game changers and came back with deadly talent like former Ohio State five-star wideout Quincy Porter to replace guys like Malachi Fields who was selected in this year's NFL Draft.
Quarterback CJ Carr is also entering his redshirt sophomore season looking to improve upon his 2,741 passing yards and 24 touchdowns last season. He's widely seen as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate and if his turnover ratio (six picks in 2025) improves, his chances of receiving an invitation to New York City in November will skyrocket. He'll be protected by one of, if not, the best offensive lines in the country, led by stellar tackles Guerby Lambert and Will Black. It was evident on tape when Carr had time in the pocket he showed potential to break out as an elite passer. That looks poised to happen this season.
They have a highly achievable 12-0 schedule
While most like to criticize Notre Dame for being an independent and not joining a conference, the Irish have the flexibility to schedule more Power Four opponents than their rivals in the Big Ten and SEC. This year it'll play just two of its 12 contests against non-Power Conference foes with exactly none of them hailing from the FCS. Alabama and defending national champion Indiana can't say that. Despite that, however, Notre Dame's schedule is one of the most winnable out there.
ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Irish a 32.7 percent chance of going undefeated this year (the highest chance nationwide) and still ranks them at No. 3 in the country overall. That should tell you something. Bill Connelly, one of the foremost experts in college football analytics, explicitly picked Notre Dame to win the national championship based on these metrics. The team is favored to win each of its first six games by 21 or more points and, unlike last year's early stumbles, it won't face a ranked opponent until the back half of its schedule like No. 14 BYU (Oct. 17), No. 7 Miami (Nov. 7) and No. 19 SMU (Nov. 21).
The CFP Selection Committee owes Notre Dame big time
Okay, that may be overdoing it a bit but there is a narrative to be followed this season that Notre Dame must leave no doubt so that it won't be controversially left out of the 12-team CFP again. The Irish (10-2) were snubbed in favor of a three-loss Alabama team that went on to get smoked by eventual national champion Indiana 38-3 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. There's no reason to believe Notre Dame will be favored because of that this year but it should be extra motivated to prove the committee wrong for its decision last year.
ESPN's FPI gives the Irish a 74.4 percent chance of being selected for the CFP. The above circumstances factor heavily into that math and it would be nothing short of a massive failure if the outcome given a 36.6 percent chance were to occur. Nobody can say they wouldn't take the luck of the Irish if it were offered to them but Notre Dame shouldn't need it to threaten as a national championship contender. They'll just play like champions every Saturday.
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