Texas Tech was in the headlines a lot over the summer offseason and not for the best reasons. The Red Raiders, champions of the Big 12 in 2025, were considered favorites to repeat in 2026 -- and still generally are -- because of top transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby choosing to land in Lubbock for the final season of his college career. Of course, that won't happen now and it's thrown Texas Tech's competitive future into doubt.
Red Raiders fans are still hopeful the team is going to rebound and play well in spite of the drama but distractions like that have a way of eating away at a locker room. The bar set in 2025 -- 12 wins and a program-first College Football Playoff appearance -- looks a lot loftier than it did in the spring. Here's why the program could finish below that mark in 2026.
1. The Brendan Sorsby saga crippled Red Raiders' QB situation
Sorsby was suspended by the NCAA for egregious violations of its anti-sports gambling rules. He attempted to fight the suspension tooth and nail, even getting state courts and law officials involved. A judge wildly tossed the NCAA's suspension, making Sorsby eligible, to which the entire college football revolted and threatened to make Texas Tech's life hell going forward. Sorsby eventually backed down, unsuccessfully attempted to depart for the NFL and now sits in limbo.
The Red Raiders now have to turn to sophomore Will Hammond to lead them in a championship repeat attempt. He had flashes as a freshman last year but was considered aggressively average and probably hasn't developed much with Sorsby having taken so many reps from him in the offseason. Beign thrust back into the spotlight given the circumstances won't be the optimal transition for Hammond. He threw for just 680 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions last year when starter Behren Morton missed time with injury. It's not a very inspiring sample for the defending champions.
2. Roster turnover provides more uncertainty than excitement
On top of losing Sorsby, head coach Joey McGuire had to essentially restock his entire roster after it was raided (no pun intended ... okay, maybe a little intended) by the NFL. A school-record nine players were drafted including core contributors like Jacob Rodriguez, Lee Hunter, David Bailey and Romelo Height. Texas Tech's defense led the nation in expected points added per play (EPA) last season and now it'll have to completely rebuild its identity in 2026.
McGuire managed to recruit a top-five transfer class including three defensive linemen but getting all those studs to gel together is a tougher task than most realize. The names and potential are one thing but executing is another entirely. Getting to opposing quarterbacks and winning the turnover margin will be key to a successful campaign. Should either of those categories see a regression from last year's totals, returning to the CFP will be a lot more difficult.
3. The rest of the Big 12 successfully hunts down the champions
Despite the SEC and Big Ten flaunting their superiority complexes, the Big 12 is probably the toughest place to compete outside those two conferences -- especially for defending champions. There hasn't a been a repeat title holder in the Big 12 since Oklahoma -- now in the SEC -- won an impressive six consecutive league championships from 2015-20. Since then, every champion has entered the following season with high expectations and been crushed by the pressure.
Texas Tech's schedule looks about as easy as it could possible want when attempting to return to Dallas for the conference title game but there are ample opportunities for upsets. Week 3 against Houston, Week 7 against Arizona State and the final three contests of the season (Oklahoma State, Baylor & TCU) could be trouble for the Red Raiders should they fail to recapture their 2025 dominance. It's only going to take three losses to prevent them from returning to the CFP and all five of those opponents are very capable of emerging with the win.
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