Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Texas Tech's Big 12 title hopes collapsed after QB Brendan Sorsby left for the NFL. The conference race is wide open, shifting the power dynamics completely.
- TCU, BYU, Utah, and ASU are top contenders. Traditional powers like Colorado and Cincinnati are projected to struggle heavily in the lower tiers of the league.
- Sorsby’s sudden exit creates a chaotic scramble for the crown. Unpredictable rosters mean dark horses and spoilers will decide who reaches the title game.
The end of the Brendan Sorsby saga sent shockwaves through college football but his apparent absence from the 2026 season is going to greatly impact the course of crowning a champion. Naturally, there is nowhere that'll be felt most than in the Big 12 Conference.
Texas Tech was expected to be a lock to repeat as league champions with the top transfer portal target wearing the program's colors. Those fortunes took a serious hit Monday when Sorsby decided he would instead leave for the NFL.
Let's divide the members of the Big 12 into tiers from serious contenders to out of sight, out of mind basement dwellers now that we have a clearer picture of the Red Raiders' roster.
Big 12 title contenders
These are the programs fans should pencil in to be at the top of the Big 12 table when late October rolls around. We saw flashes of brilliance from each, and if they remain healthy, the conference will have to wait yet another year for a repeat champion.
TCU
Doubt Sonny Dykes at your own peril. The Horned Frogs could be the team that can take advantage of the power vacuum the most in 2026 with transfer QB Jaden Craig poised to take the reins. Craig dominated for Harvard last year and is easily the most underrated player coming out of the transfer portal. Don't be shocked if he's in the Heisman Trophy conversation at some point.
BYU
The Cougars came up just short in the Big 12 Championship Game last year and are retaining a significant portion of its offensive and defensive output from then. QB Bear Bachmeier well overperformed in the absence of Jake Retzlaff and returns to build upon that performance in 2026. BYU will be in contention from start to finish this year.
Utah
No Kyle Whittingham? No problem. One of the most consistent things in life is Utah fielding a competitive team, and the Utes managed to keep star QB Devon Dampier in Salt Lake City for this season. The dual-threat passer tore up opposing defenses last year and will do more of the same in 2026. Utah is a safe bet to appear in Arlington this coming December.
Arizona State
Despite an injury-riddled 2025 for the Sun Devils, head coach Kenny Dillingham pulled two of the best wide receiver prospects in the transfer portal—Omarion Miller and Reed Harris—to restock for 2026. Former Kentucky QB Cutter Boley will be one of the most slept on passers in the conference with these two new weapons at his disposal. Arizona State is primed to reclaim its Big 12 title from two years ago.
Dark horses
These squads may or may not make it to AT&T Stadium in December but they'll be in the running at some point and will make things uncomfortable for the above contenders. If you're a bettor, keep an eye on these teams to pull an upset or two that shakes up the standings.
Kansas State
This is probably junior QB Avery Johnson's last opportunity to prove he can meet the expectations set on him at the start of his college career. Kansas State has been listed as a title contender the last two years with him under center but has failed to come close to the championship game. That could end in 2026, but it's going to require some overperforming by the rest of the roster. An upset over a contender will immediately place the Wildcats in contention themselves.
Texas Tech
The starting quarterback role now passes to last year's backup, Will Hammond, who was a mixed bag of talent when given the opportunity to start. If he's learned from his mistakes and gets enough consistent reps with the No. 1 offense, the Red Raiders are not out of the championship question (yet). But if his turnover problems resurface, a bowl game will be the best-case scenario for disappointed fans in Lubbock.
Baylor
Head coach Dave Aranda is feeling his seat get warmer and warmer, so a push for the conference title is just what the doctor ordered to stave off an early dismissal. QB Sawyer Robertson is still an unproven (and unpredictable) commodity, but that's what has the Bears in this category to begin with. There's significant reason to believe Robertson will play well enough to keep the program in the upper third of the standings, but beyond that will depend on winning a few unwinnable games.
Arizona
The Wildcats could easily be in the contender category after their impressive performance in 2025, but there's just too much of an unknown factor in their returning production that keeps them as dark horses. Noah Fifita could carry this team on his back, but at some point he's bound to falter at an inconvenient moment. There's just as equal a chance Arizona is flirting with a top-two spot in November as there is it's earned three losses by the same time.
Houston
The Cougars shocked folks in 2025 with a fourth-place finish and 10 wins on their ledger. That result could very well repeat itself with head coach Willie Fritz getting QB Connor Weigman back for his junior season. It will be a lot more difficult for Houston to remain in the championship conversation, as it'll be on the opposition's radar from the jump. But if Fritz recaptures last year's magic, we could see an interesting run in after October.
Spoilers
These are the teams that probably won't compete for the conference title but will give the contenders headaches, even stealing a game or two that could end their bids. They'll be the ones heading to bowl season with a signature win but many more tough losses.
Kansas
The Jayhawks' championship window has closed, but that doesn't mean they won't field a competitive team in 2026. QB Jalon Daniels returns for his final year of eligibility, but he's not as well stocked with weapons as he's been in the past. Head coach Lance Leipold will have his guys believing they can take on the rest of the conference, but inevitably they will lose too many games they should've won. That being said, it's just as inevitable Kansas will upset a contender and potentially end a CFP bid.
UCF
The Knights could be one of the most fun teams to watch in the Big 12 this year. QB Alonza Barnett, who transferred from CFP participant James Madison, will lead UCF into 2026. His injection of talent will keep the program competitive but unlikely to keep up all year with the rest of the heavy hitters. However, mark UCF as one of the teams that will beat a contender—whether early on or late in the campaign—and earn a bowl berth as a result.
Iowa State
Losing head coach Matt Campbell and QB Rocco Becht seriously damages Iowa State's prospects entering 2026, but it's not enough to dump the Cyclones all the way into the conference basement. Iowa State will win at least four games, but beyond that will take a feat of incredible resilience against superior competition. Don't expect a bowl berth for the Cyclones this season as they recalibrate under new leadership, but an upset will be brewing for one of their opponents.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers are probably the most unpredictable team in the conference this year. West Virginia could easily be ranked a whole tier above with head coach Rich Rodriguez at the helm, but the likelihood is the team will go on a rollercoaster-type season. The Mountaineers will win a few games and then they'll lose more in an inconsistent manner. It's a complete toss-up whether their season will end with six wins or six losses.
Basement
These teams won't see a bowl game period. In fact, they'd all be lucky to win more than three games in 2026. They are non-factors in the conference title race, but let's talk about them anyway.
Colorado
Deion Sanders hasn't been able to get Colorado back to its 2023 and 2024 status as a program on the rise. Since his son Shedeur and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter departed for the NFL, it's been all downhill. More of the same is expected in 2026 as the team struggles to find a true No. 1 QB. Kaidon Salter will start in that role, but it's likely he falters out of it by midseason.
Cincinnati
After Sorsby departed, the transfer portal wrecked the Bearcats. There's not much to say about them except they'll probably not go completely defeated in 2026. Their Week 2 matchup with Western Carolina is the only game that can be penciled in as a win. After that, it's doubtful Cincinnati wins another game except for maybe against Colorado on Nov. 21.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys probably have the best chance of escaping the basement in 2026, but there's not a lot of reason to put stock in that possibility. QB Drew Mestemaker transferred to Stillwater from North Texas after a very impressive year, but jumping from a mid-major to a Power Four program is easier said than done. If he can transition well, then Oklahoma State will overperform in 2026. If not, they'll stay right where they are.
More college football news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google