Several Week 4 underdogs could make things interesting, but there’s a difference between keeping a game close and winning it. Oklahoma, a 14-point underdog at Georgia, looks capable of covering in a game with a 44.5-point over/under. The three picks below though have a real shot to pull off outright upsets.
4 Ole Miss Rebels at 21 Florida Gators
- Time: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ETC on ABC
- Odds: Florida favored by 3.5 points (-102);
- Moneyline: Florida -156, Ole Miss +138
Florida is a 3.5-point favorite over the No. 4 Rebels. And while this would have been a classic let-down spot for Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin, Pete Golding is not Kiffin. And until proven otherwise, I will respect what he has done in his first six games at the helm.
Jon Sumrall has brought life back to the Florida Gators sidelines after Billy Napier drew the light from the fans.
In Buster Faulkner and Aaron Philo, Sumerall found the perfect combination of offensive coordinator and Quarterback. But with the defense struggling, including 39 points allowed against Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss could have a field day at The Swamp.
Chambliss, the current Heisman Trophy favorite at +300, is the best player in college football so far in 2026. He is the main reason that when a reporter told Sumrall that Florida was favored in this game, his response was that there are some good drugs out there. Trinidad Chambliss is the best player in the country.
This is not hyperbole, and Sumrall needs to make sure the Gators players know what they are in for. The only worry about this pick is that Kewan Lacy was again hurt in the LSU win, and there is the potential that he will be forced to sit out this game.
Even so, Ole Miss looks to be on a mission in 2026. Florida is playing very good against lackluster competition in FIU, Campbell and Auburn. But the Rebels have already beaten two power conference teams in Louisville in Week 1 and the massive LSU win on Saturday. They are battle-tested and should be favored in this matchup.
17 Iowa Hawkeyes at 18 Michigan Wolverines
- Time: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
- Odds: Michigan favored by 5.5 points (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan -210, Iowa +172
This game started with the traditional Iowa over/under of 37.5. It has since risen to 39.5, but this still shows the respect Las Vegas has for the defenses of both squads in this game. Shockingly, Iowa is the offense to trust more.
Michigan comes into this game scoring 17 points or less in two of their three games, while Iowa comes in having scored 16 points in their victory over Iowa State. A game that is always close, no matter what the team is going through.
In Iowa’s other two games against Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa, the Hawkeyes scored 40 points and 55 points respectively, winning 40-0 and 55-0.
The great Iowa defense under Phil Parker has allowed 13 points over three games. The offense has gained 71 first downs in the season while allowing opponents just 25 on defense. They have also averaged 7.44 yards per attempt rushing on offense, while allowing just 2.2 yards. For more incredible Iowa stats, the team has 4 touchdown passes and just 1 interception. Yes, Iowa has four receiving touchdowns. The Hawkeyes also have 9 touchdowns on the ground with 804 rushing yards on 108 carries. While their opponents have combined for 90 rushes for 198 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Michigan can get a rushing touchdown in this game. But with the Iowa defense being dominant thus far in 2026, do not expect the Wolverines to move the ball easily. This game will be done so quickly, you will think it was a service academy game.
Iowa should be the underdog, and they are. But 5.5 points is too much, and Iowa is currently the better team. Look for the Hawkeyes to slowly walk into The Big House, slowly run the ball down the field, and quickly run from the stadium with their hands and the victory held high.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats
- Time: Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
- Odds: Florida favored by 3.5 points (-102)
- Moneyline: Florida -156, Ole Miss +138
Kansas State is 3-0 so far in 2026. This is good, but it is also due to the Wildcats not playing a decent team yet.
In the first three games of the season, Kansas State has defeated Nicholls State, Washington State and a down Tulane team by a total score of 136-40. All these games have been at home and none of them were against teams who are likely to go to a bowl game in 2026. Unless Tulane gets better quickly.
For Cincinnati, they are also 3-0 having beaten Boston College, Western Carolina and Miami of Ohio. While their combined score of 131-59 is not as lofty as Kansas State, their competition level more than makes up for the additional points allowed.
With this being the first challenge for Kansas State, it is also the first time an offensive line that lost three starters before the season started will need to hold up for quarterback Avery Johnson.
Cincinnati is not a good Big 12 team. But they are a Big 12 team, and their athletes are superior to the level of competitors seen by the Wildcats to this point.
If this game was in Manhattan, Kansas, and not Cincinnati, Ohio, the feeling for this game would be different. But, with Cincinnati playing at home, look for the Bearcats to win despite the 6.5-point spread currently offered.
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