North Carolina, Colorado and more college football upset picks we're calling for Week 3

If you read last week, you were able to cash on the unofficial play of Ohio State +1.5 against Texas. If you skipped past the header, you still cashed with USF over Army and Duke over Illinois. 

Not all weeks will be as good. But we are going to keep things going this week with three more games to take a close look at.

Houston Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

• Line: Texas Tech, -7.5
• Date: Friday | 5 p.m. ET
• Channel: FOX

Texas Tech was expected to run through the Big XII in the same way they did in 2025. Coach Joey McGuire said that he really liked returning quarterback Will Hammond and the only reason the team moved to get Brendan Sorsby was due to the ACL injury which Hammond suffered.

After the gambling situation with Sorsby broke, the Red Raiders did everything they could to keep him eligible. This should have been a sign.

Something else McGuire said in the offseason is that his defense this season would be even better than his unit last season — a unit which was led by David Bailey ... a player selected No. 2 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft by the New York Jets. 

So far, Texas Tech is allowing 333 yards per game on defense, with 68 of those yards coming via the pass game. In the rush game, the Red Raiders are better, holding opponents to 65 yards a game and not yet allowing a touchdown to Abeline Christian and Oregon State — not too impressive.

In their last game, Texas Tech was close to losing to Oregon State before pulling out a 35-24 win, a win they achieved after trailing to the Beavers in the fourth quarter.

Just one week earlier, those same Oregon State Beavers traveled to Houston to play the Cougars in the first game of the season for both squads. In this game, Houston won 33-20 and gained 533 yards of total offense. 

On defense, the Beavers were forced to throw the ball and this accounted for 376 yards of passing offense to just 26 yards on the ground, and the defense also held Oregon State to just 4-of-15 on third down.

Senior quarterback Conner Weigman, who is still in college, is leading the Cougars for the second season under coach Willy Fritz. But Houston was also able to keep elite freshman quarterback Keisean Henderson in the fold, and the 6-foot-5, 195-pound player will also get a few packages to limit the ability of Texas Tech’s defense to get too cozy. 

The Cougars have started the season strong. They are also coming into this game off a 77-6 defeat over Southern University. 

While Texas Tech was having their struggles, Houston was playing their backups in the second half and getting ready for this trip to Lubbock. Nothing is guaranteed but Houston has a great chance to pull off the upset in the Texas Showdown.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Clemson Tigers

• Line: Clemson, -3.5
• Date: Saturday | 12 noon
• Channel: ESPN

Are either of these teams good? No — which is why anything can happen here.

While North Carolina comes into the matchup with a 2-0 record, the Clemson Tigers come in at 1-1. But that one was just a 22-7 victory over a Georgia Southern, a team seen by many as one of the worst teams in FBS football this season.

On top of the lackluster play by Clemson, quarterback Christopher Vizzna is going to be out this game due to injuring his shoulder against Georgia Southern. This will lead the Tigers to count on freshman Tait Reynolds in his first start. If Bill Belichick could confound first time starters in the NFL, we know there will be something in store for Reynolds here.

North Carolina, after their win over TCU and a bye week, returned to action in Week 2 with a 35-3 win over ETSU. 

Opposite the freshman Reynolds, North Carolina will be trotting out a 23-year old Billy Edwards Jr., who has starting experience at Maryland and Wisconsin before landing with the Tar Heels. He will not be flustered by the noise in Death Valley, and this could be the biggest difference in whether UNC or Clemson win this game.

Both head coaches are clear Hall-of-Fame bound, both are also on the downside of their time at their current jobs. But North Carolina has looked good this season, while Clemson has failed to deliver anything to fans besides excuses from Dabo Swinney. Neither of these men need a win, but only one can get it and with Belichick being the underdog in this road game, I will count on the Tar Heels to beat a beaten up Clemson team.

Colorado Buffalo @ Northwestern Wildcats, Sat. 7:30 PM, TV unknown,

• Line: Northwestern, -3.5 
• Date: Saturday | 7:30 p.m.
• Channel: TBD

Colorado was supposed to lose in Week 1 against Georgia Tech. But they went into Atlanta and pulled off a hard-fought win against the Yellow Jackets. In their second game of the season, sophomore quarterback JuJu Lewis had the best game of his career with 366 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 17-of-23 passing. He added an additional touchdown on a one-yard rush to finish the day with five total touchdowns as the Buffalo defeated Weber State 52-20.

Northwestern, who got the short end of the stick with a Week 2 bye before being forced to play 11 straight games, will start this stretch after winning their first game 34-18 over FCS powerhouse South Dakota State.

Now that they are back in action, it is back to the practice field next to the lake and a hope that the Wildcats can get an out of conference win before heading into a grueling Big Ten schedule which includes games at Indiana next week before returning home to play Penn State. Later in the season, Northwestern will also face games against Iowa and Illinois at home and Oregon and Ohio State, both on the road. 

With Indiana next week, the Wildcats could be looking past the Buffalo. If they look too far past, they will get stampeded.

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