The first College Football Playoff rankings are a little less than a month away. It’s hard to predict how the College Football Playoff selection committee will value the first two months of the season. Will they take how the AP voters voted and weigh that over their own evaluations or will their subjective eye test and erratic head-to-head considerations overpower their decisions? For now, we can only speculate based on the AP top 25 poll. Here’s what the projected CFP bracket looks like now and predicting how it will look at season’s end.
Current College Football Playoff bracket based on AP Top 25
TEAM | RECORD |
|---|---|
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (SEC champ) | 6-0 |
No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 6-0 |
No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (ACC champ) | 5-0 |
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champ) | 5-1 |
No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers | 6-0 |
No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide | 5-1 |
No. 7 Texas Longhorns | 4-1 |
No. 8 BYU Cougars (Big 12 champ) | 5-0 |
No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels | 4-1 |
No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 5-0 |
No. 11 Utah Utes | 5-0 |
No. 12 Boise State Broncos (G6 champ) | 5-1 |
First Four byes
- No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 3 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes
Georgia now has the top spot in the AP top 25 poll after knocking off Alabama on the road and is projected to be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff. This isn’t just a formality either, the Bulldogs look like the most complete team in college football right now. Barring any surprise losses this season, Notre Dame should remain in the first four byes group with a weaker schedule and having an independent schedule.
Ohio State might be the most questionable team with a projected bye simply because they are a one-loss team, but lost to a top 10 team yet are still ranked behind them. That’s not to take anything away from them, but they did luck into a projected first round bye for the second-straight season. Miami is the other comfortable team thanks to a weak ACC conference. I’d be surprised to see the Hurricanes drop out of the top four.
Predicting the final College Football Playoff bracket
TEAM | MATCHUP |
|---|---|
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (SEC champ) | -- |
No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -- |
No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (ACC champ) | -- |
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champ) | -- |
No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide | No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys |
No. 6 Texas Longhorns | No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats |
No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers | No. 10 Boise State Broncos (G6 champ) |
No. 8 Utah Utes (Big 12 champ) | No. 9 UCLA Bruins |
First four teams out
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Missouri Tigers
- USC Trojans
Kentucky, UCLA grab CFP bids without reaching respective conference title games
There’s no team as dangerous as Kentucky right now which is why it could get in without a conference title. Kentucky needs wins over Missouri and Tennessee to get in. Kentucky could sneak in at 10-2, but need to win out and finish 11-1 for their best chance at getting in. As for UCLA, they have the benefit of an easy schedule, that’s why they’ll get in. Their toughest remaining game is in the last game of the season against USC, a must win.
Utah and Oklahoma State replace BYU and Texas Tech
Oklahoma State and Utah will probably be the Big 12 representatives in this year’s CFP field. Oklahoma State’s toughest remaining game is Texas Tech, who is beatable this year and Utah shouldn’t have too much trouble this year with BYU at home later this season. As far as Texas Tech, it isn’t quite the team it was last year, which is why they slip out of playoff contention.
BYU has some major injuries, including LJ Martin, which will come to a head this weekend against Notre Dame. They could get away with a loss to the Fighting Irish but they can’t get blown out. While BYU is favored in the Big 12, they also have Utah and Baylor left to play this season. After struggling against TCU a few weeks ago, BYU isn’t exactly oozing confidence.
USC's late season gauntlet catches up to it
USC should be a CFP team, but it still has to play Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA. This is the season Lincoln Riley has to prove USC can contend for the CFP, which means anything less than two wins in that stretch is a failure. The only win USC might get to end the season is UCLA. That would put them at 9-3 and no 3-loss team with losses to Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana is getting into the CFP.
Ole Miss and Missouri lose ground against tougher schedules
What makes Ole Miss and Missouri’s situation interesting is that both teams have similar opponents and head-to-head as criteria. Both teams still have to play Georgia and Texas. Missouri plays Kentucky while Ole Miss has Mississippi State. This is a hard one to read because neither team is bad. They could help each other out by beating the same teams, but doing so means Texas or Georgia isn’t as good as we thought.
Boise State sneaks into the top 10 with the G6 bid
Boise State has the strongest resume of any Group of 6 team. With wins against Memphis, Western Michigan and Fresno State with each team at their best, there’s no reason why the Broncos can’t climb into the top 10. In fact, the CFP selection committee will have no choice, especially if Ole Miss, BYU and Texas Tech all falter. Boise State lost to Oregon by seven points and passing their final test against Oregon State at the end of the year will prove just how dangerous it really is.
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