Week 3 arrived with an offseason's worth of hype, and man, did it not disappoint. The headliner, of course, came in Oxford, where Ole Miss got its long-awaited revenge against Lane Kiffin and LSU in one of the most electric atmospheres in recent memory. But that was just the tip of the iceberg; Texas Tech outlasted Houston in a Friday night thriller, Texas A&M got ambushed by Kentucky at home, Louisville outlasted SMU in a shootout between ACC contenders and USC once again had a miserable time traveling to the East Coast. Oh, and Alabama might have its next superstar quarterback.
With so much chaos on Saturday, we know the college football rankings are going to undergo a huge shake-up. But what did it all mean for how the College Football Playoff bracket could look by season's end? Let's break down our projected top 12 as things stand.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket after Ole Miss beats LSU, Texas A&M upset
- Texas (SEC champ)
- Indiana (Big Ten champ)
- Georgia
- Miami (ACC champ)
- Notre Dame
- Utah (Big 12 champ)
- Ohio State
- Ole Miss
- Alabama
- BYU
- LSU
- Boise State (Group of 6 representative)
LSU's CFP hopes are far from dead, while Ole Miss still has work to do
Yes, the Tigers got sent back to Baton Rouge with their tails between their legs. But while Ole Miss' big win on Saturday night gave them a big leg up in both the SEC and CFP races, things are far from settled — and a lot can change between now and the end of the regular season.
LSU has a home date with Texas A&M on tap next week, plus potentially tricky road trips to Kentucky and Auburn. But I still believe in the talent this team possesses, and I think they should head into November at 7-1 ... just in time for a gauntlet that will make or break year one under Kiffin.
In a three-week span, the Tigers have home dates with Alabama and Texas followed by a trip to Tennessee. If Kiffin can go 2-1 over that stretch, LSU should get to the clubhouse at 10-2, with at least one marquee win under its belt. It's hard to imagine that's not enough to snag an at-large spot in the 12-team Playoff.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, can't afford to take its foot off the gas now. Pete Golding's defense stood tall on Saturday night, but it's shown real vulnerability at times this season, and the schedule only gets tougher from here with trips to Florida, Texas and Oklahoma plus visits from Missouri and Georgia (not to mention the ever-dangerous Kamario Taylor in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State). Beating Louisville and LSU gives the Rebels plenty of margin for error; even if they lose two games, they almost certainly will earn a spot. Of course, with an SEC slate like that, three losses is still on the table.
Utah has a real shot to dethrone Texas Tech in the Big 12
You may have noticed that Texas Tech isn't included in the field above, despite a win over Houston on Friday night that put it in the driver's seat in the always wide-open Big 12. So, what gives? Well, it's simple: I'm still not sold on this Red Raiders team amid what's been a bit of a shaky start to the season, and there's a looming threat further west that we should all be taking a lot more seriously.
Sure, Utah hasn't been tested all that much yet, all due respect to Arkansas. But they've physically manhandled the three teams on their schedule in a way that sure feels convincing, while Tech slogged through an FCS game against Abilene Christian and nearly got upended on the road at Oregon State before surviving against Houston. They avoid the Red Raiders (and Oklahoma State) in the regular season, and they get both BYU and Houston at home — where they've been darn near unbeatable for years now.
There's a good chance they get to the Big 12 title game with one or zero losses, possibly facing Tech with a conference championship and a Playoff spot on the line. Right now, I'd back the Utes in that matchup.
USC simply doesn't look like a Playoff team right now
USC is the other team that fell all the way out from last week's projections. That's what happens when you eke out a one-score win against a Rutgers team that was previously 0-2 with losses to UMass and Boston College.
We know that Jayden Maiava and this offense can put up points, even with a banged-up receiving corps. But a week after giving up 30 to Louisiana, the Trojans' much-maligned defense got shredded by a Scarlet Knights attack that, while boasting some top-end talent (both WR KJ Duff and RB Antwan Raymond will be playing on Sundays), still had a mediocre journeyman at QB in Dylan Lonergan.
Until USC shows it's serious about getting stops, and until it can travel east without completely losing the plot, I refuse to buy into them as a Playoff team. Remember: Lincoln Riley's team still has to go to Penn State and Indiana.
Boise State leads the Group of 6 pack ahead of huge elimination game
The state of play in the G6 is about the same, at least at the top, as Boise State wasn't overwhelming against FCS South Dakota but came away with a 14-point win nonetheless. Next week comes the real test, taking on a Western Michigan team that came within one controversial second of beating Michigan. The winner will be in the driver's seat for a Playoff spot come season's end, while the loser will have a lot of ground to make up.
Plenty of other teams could still play a part here. James Madison is rolling under Billy Napier, while Tulsa already has a win over Oklahoma State on its resume. But the winner of this clash of the Broncos in Week 3 will control its destiny.
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