The first College Football Playoff bracket reveal is just days away. But why wait for the committee when technology can give us an instant peek?
The Opta supercomputer ranks every team in the FBS and assigns a “Playoff Potential” score that estimates its likelihood of making the 12-team playoff field. We first asked Opta for a playoff snapshot a few weeks ago, but a lot has happened since then — looking at you, BYU — to shake up those projections.
Supercomputer's bracket: Mostly same teams, new order
Using those playoff scores and following the rules for the selection process — autobids for top-four conference champions, plus the highest ranked team from the Group of Six — turns up a bracket that looks markedly different than it did just over two weeks ago.
Seed School Opta Playoff Potential
SEED | SCHOOL | OPTA PLAYOFF POTENTIAL |
|---|---|---|
1 | Notre Dame | 99.6% |
2 | Georgia | 98.4% |
3 | Miami | 98.3% |
4 | Alabama | 97.5% |
5 | Ohio State | 97.2% |
6 | UCLA | 96.8% |
7 | Indiana | 95.1% |
8 | LSU | 94.6% |
9 | Arizona | 91.7% |
10 | Utah | 82.8% |
11 | Texas | 79.9% |
12 | Boise State | 69.3% |
Three of the top four teams — Notre Dame, Georgia and Alabama — also appeared in the supercomputer’s projected field in mid-October. Each was in a different spot, with Georgia topping that list, followed by Notre Dame, Alabama and Ohio State.
The Fighting Irish moved up despite not playing since their last-second, 28-24 loss at BYU on Oct. 17. They now have the best chance of making the playoff. They face a massive test Nov. 7 against Miami, which is No. 1 in the AP poll and No. 3 in the Opta rankings.
Welcome to the party, UCLA and Boise State
Two teams in the latest supercomputer projections weren’t in the bracket in mid-October: UCLA has the No. 6 seed and Boise State claimed the 12th and final spot as the best of the Group of Six.
They replaced BYU and Oregon State. In a classic case of a letdown, BYU claimed a dramatic, last-second victory over Notre Dame on Oct. 17, but followed that with a double-overtime loss at UCF.
Oregon State certainly hasn’t done anything to lose ground. The Beavers have reeled off five straight wins since back-to-back losses to Big 12 teams, while Boise State has won six in a row. They’ll settle this on the field in a couple of weeks: Oregon State visits Boise State on Nov. 14.
Texas-UCLA highlights intriguing first-round projections
Here’s a look at what the computer projects as the first-round games to be played on campus sites:
- (9) Arizona at (8) LSU
- (12) Boise State at (5) Ohio State
- (11) Texas at (6) UCLA
- (10) Utah at (7) Indiana
Noah Fifita at Death Valley? Boise State in the Horseshoe? Those feisty (and still-unbeaten) Utes visiting the reigning national champions? There’s a good reason to watch any of those matchups.
But the best of the bunch might be a Texas-UCLA showdown at the Rose Bowl. New coach Bob Chesney’s turnaround in Pasadena has been remarkable, and Steve Sarkisian, Arch Manning and Co. got the Longhorns back on track with a tight home victory over Mississippi that snapped a two-game losing streak.
Northwestern: The odd team out
While Boise State claimed the 12th seed in the bracket, they held the No. 13 spot in the supercomputer rankings. Had the Group of Six not been awarded an automatic bid, the No. 12 seed instead would have gone to Northwestern.
The Wildcats, who have won four straight since a tight loss at Indiana, appear to have plenty of chances to climb those rankings: Of their final five opponents, only one — Ohio State — is ranked.
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